Cash transfers and other incentives likely key to NDA's sweep in Bihar

The landslide victory of the ruling coalition of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar – despite being in office for most part of the past 20 years – points to a significant role of direct cash transfers of Rs 10,000 to millions of women when the electioneering was on and many other incentives rolled out in the run-up.

At the time of writing this, the NDA was set to cross the 200-mark in the house of 243.

Cash for women figures in another election win

Election expert Sanjay Kumar told The Federal, “We have evidence from the past that when welfare schemes are doled out (on the election eve), the beneficiaries tend to vote for the ruling party. Though not always, there is a strong likelihood of this and that seems to have happened in the current election.”

Pointing to the cumulative impact of cash transfers to women and incentives for others rolled out in recent months (key ones are listed later), Kumar said, “See the victory margin. It is far bigger than many would have expected.”

Also Read: Bihar election: NDA blazes past majority mark as Nitish bucks anti-incumbency

When asked about the magnitude of the impact, he replied, “Direct cash transfer is a new thing in Indian politics. It has certainly helped but is difficult to quantify.”

The other factors in the NDA’s win he listed are wider sweep of castes the NDA could gather around it, compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s limited ones, and the NDA’s “jungle raj” narrative targetted at the opposition coalition leader Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Other instances of cash transfers

Several recent electoral experiences bear out what Kumar says about the cash transfers to women.

The first such poll-eve cash transfer to women was started by the Assam government in 2020, resulting in a win for it. This was repeated in West Bengal in 2021, Madhya Pradesh in 2023, and Maharashtra and Jharkhand in 2024.

Similar experiments in Punjab in 2022 and Telangana in 2023, however, failed to keep the ruling party in office.

Also Read: Bihar elections: Nitish Kumar set to become India's longest-serving CM?

In some other cases, the party not in power promised cash transfers for women, as in Karnataka (2023), Odisha (2024), and Delhi (2025), and won.

In all, 15 states have such schemes for women, of which Goa (2013), Tamil Nadu (2023), and Chhattisgarh (2024) are not related to elections.

SBI’s study on impact of cash transfers

Perhaps the only study of its kind that measured the impact of cash transfers to women is by the SBI Research.

Its study, published in December 2023, found the poll-eve “Ladli Behna” scheme raised women’s voting percentage and brought back the ruling party with a sweeping mandate (from a runner-up in 2018).

It said, “Ladli Behna significantly increased female voter turnout in 2023 assembly election (from 74 per cent in 2018 to 76 per cent in 2023)…Incumbent party has converted hitherto 28 per cent success rate into 100 per cent success rate in closely-contested seats”.

It added, “30-35 seats in at least 8 districts could have a favourable outcome (pro-incumbency) due to Ladli Behna.”

Higher women’s vote for NDA

In Bihar’s case, the Axis My India said in its exit-poll survey (sample size of 42,031) that 45 per cent women voted for the NDA, compared to 40 per cent for the Opposition Mahagathbandhan – a clear 5 percentage point advantage.

It should be kept in mind that women backing Nitish Kumar and his government is nothing new. It goes back to the 2010 elections – after he launched the bicycle scheme for girl students and raised women's quota in panchayats to 50 per cent, followed by the prohibition of 2016.

Also Read: Why Bihar lost before a single vote was cast

The CSDS post-poll survey had shown that in the 2020 elections, 38 per cent women had voted for the NDA, against 37 per cent for the Opposition.

Other incentives ahead of Bihar elections

The direct cash transfer to women, given under the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana (MMRY) to help women set up their businesses, reached 15 million households (one woman between 18-60 years) – as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had declared at a public rally in Bihar’s Vaishali on November 1, 2025.

But this was not the only one. There were several others which were launched in June 2025 and thereafter.

Some of the key ones are:

• Pension for elderly, disabled, and widows were raised from Rs 400 a month to Rs 1,100 – benefitting 10.9 million individuals.

• 125 units of free electricity to all – benefitting 16.7 million families.

• Honorarium for anganwadi workers and helpers were raised from Rs 7,000 to Rs 9,000 and from Rs 4,000 to Rs 4,500 a month. Beneficiaries included 0.12 million of Anganwadi workers.

• Monthly allowance of panchayat representatives – mukhiyas, deputy mukhiyas, ward members, sarpanches, and panchs – were raised 1.5 times.

• Honorarium for 0.14 million Jeevika workers (administrative, training, and other activities related to self-help groups (SHGs) were doubled.

• Honorarium for ASHA (90,039 beneficiaries) and MAMTA workers (7,500 beneficiaries) were raised three-fold.

Also Read: Bihar results: New JD(U) posters hail Nitish Kumar with 'Tiger is still alive' slogan

Ashish Ranjan, co-founder of Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies (DALES), who has camped in Bihar for several weeks, told The Federal that the NDA government covered “almost all Bihar households” with these incentives as they went to vote, adding that Rs 10,000 to millions of families “mean a lot” in Bihar.

Here is how much poll-eve incentives mean for Bihar voters.

Incentives rained on impoverished Bihar households

Bihar has the maximum poor in India – a headcount of 33.76 per cent in the NITI Aayog's multidimensional poverty index of 2024.

Its income level is one of the lowest too.

The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) of 2023-24 showed average monthly household expenditure in Bihar was Rs 3,788 in rural and Rs 5,165 in urban areas – far below the national average of Rs 4,247 and Rs 7,078, respectively.

The Economic Survey of 2024-25 showed that in FY24 the average per capita net state domestic product (current prices) of Bihar was Rs 5,028 per month – against the national average of Rs 19,207.

With such high poverty and low income, a cash transfer of Rs 10,000 to 15 million households – which both Nitish Kumar and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have assured will not be taken back from the beneficiaries – is nothing short of a windfall gain. The other incentives are the icing on the cake.

Also Read: Bihar elections: Tejashwi’s Raghopur nail-biter reflects RJD’s worst show in 15 years

Besides, Bihar is highly indebted, particularly the women’s self-help group members.

According to the July 2025 report of Sa-Dhan, RBI appointed self-regulatory organisation for microfinance institutions, Bihar tops the list of indebted states. At Rs 65,487 crore in 2024 – 28.4 per cent up from Rs 49,181 crore in 2023 – Bihar accounted for nearly 15 per cent of the microfinance loans.

In fact, many women beneficiaries told newspapers that they used the cash transfers to pay part of their microfinance loans. Others spent the money on household essentials, bought goats, sheep, or sewing machines to raise their incomes.

Poor representation for women in polls

The women may have played a critical role in renewing the mandate for the NDA but it has neglected them in the ticket distributions.

The top two coalition partners of the NDA - the BJP and JD(U) - gave 13 per cent tickets each to women.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar: Bihar’s Tiger who survives every storm

The RJD, leader of the Mahagathbandhan, did marginally better at 16.8 per cent.

The final tally of women getting elected would be clear when the Election Commission releases its final list of winners. In the last assembly elections, 26 women had won, marking a 7 per cent success rate, while male candidates had around 10 per cent success rate.