Bihar polls: Decoding Grand Alliance's Tejashwi-Sahani gamble

With the announcement of RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and Vikassheel Insaan Party chief Mukesh Sahani as its prospective chief minister and deputy chief minister candidates, respectively, the Grand Alliance has tried to put behind the mess its seat negotiations of the past two weeks had created.

Message of solidarity

By projecting a backward caste CM, aided by a deputy from an extremely backward caste, the Opposition bloc has also sent a bold message of solidarity to 63 per cent of the deeply caste-conscious state’s electorate.

Having made it clear that there would be more than one deputy CM if the Grand Alliance comes to power post the November 14 results, the Opposition bloc has also let aspirations linger among other caste/religious groups – Bihar’s 19.65 per cent Dalits and 17.70 per cent Muslims, in particular – of ‘one of their own’ bagging the high post should they vote in a ‘Tejashwi Sarkar’.

Daring the NDA to name Nitish as CM face

The Grand Alliance’s decision has now thrown the gauntlet at its NDA rivals; daring the BJP, in particular, to project unambiguously JD-U chief Nitish Kumar as its chief ministerial face instead of merely saying that the election is “being fought under his leadership”.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar attacks Lalu, says it was a 'mistake' to have briefly allied with RJD

In different political circumstances, Tejashwi’s overt concern for ‘chacha’ Nitish’s political future may have left the Bihar chief minister squirming. But then, given the BJP’s palpable unease at the prospect of yet again leaving the state’s top executive post to the ideologically promiscuous Nitish, the JD-U boss would, perhaps, be silently appreciating Tejashwi’s electoral dog-whistle.

Clarity of leadership and purpose

The Grand Alliance believes the announcements at its press conference in Patna on Thursday (October 23) could be a turning point in the Bihar polls; silhouetting the public spectacle of disharmony within its ranks that threatened the bloc’s victory prospects with a contrasting narrative of regrouping in solidarity and with a clarity of both leadership and purpose.

While all of this makes for good theory, the challenges for the Grand Alliance as its candidates march towards the polling days of November 6 and 11 aren’t few.

Also Read: Modi says NDA under Nitish Kumar will break all poll records in Bihar

Tejashwi’s projection as CM has ended the suspense, if there ever was one, on who would head a potential Grand Alliance government and cleared the fog that disrupted the RJD’s ties with the Congress while also putting the NDA in the dock over their leadership question.

Ghost of Lalu-Rabri years in power

Whether the decision actually consolidates backward caste votes or fragments it on a Yadav versus non-Yadav OBC axis remains to be seen.

It is no secret that the dominance of the Yadavs during RJD chief Lalu Yadav and his wife Rabri Devi’s 15-year rule from 1990 to 2005 had allowed the NDA to build the ‘jungle raj’ narrative against the RJD.

That narrative endures till date despite the RJD being out of power for two decades, an ailing Lalu spending long spells in jail, and the recent months of Nitish’s own tenure being marred by a high rate of crime.

Also Read: Nitish will not be made Bihar CM if NDA voted to power, claims Tejashwi at poll rally

The ghost of the Lalu-Rabri years has, however, made Yadavs synonymous with corruption, lawlessness, and a caste hegemony that suffocates not just forward castes but also non-Yadav backward castes and Dalits.

It is, thus, not surprising that at his press conference on Thursday, Tejashwi made an explicit pledge of “no compromise with crime and corruption”. Whether that pledge assuages the concerns of those still scarred by the Lalu-Rabri years will only become clear when Bihar’s votes are counted on November 14.

Gamble of projecting Sahani as Deputy CM

The bigger question, of course, is over the political pragmatism of projecting Sahani as the deputy CM.

Sahani’s projection, at least he believes, would galvanise voters of Bihar’s 9.6 per cent extremely backward Nishad community to vote for the Grand Alliance. With him as the deputy CM face, Sahani told The Federal that the Grand Alliance now “has the edge it lacked in the 2020 polls” when the VIP was part of the NDA camp and the Opposition bloc lost the election by a whisker; winning 110 of Bihar’s 243 seats against the rival coalition’s 125 seats.

Also Read: Tejashwi promises 'clean govt' in Bihar, questions PM Modi over '55 scams'

The VIP chief’s glowing self-appraisal, however, is shared by few others in the Grand Alliance. Leaders across the RJD, Congress, and Left parties The Federal spoke to conceded that projecting Sahani as the deputy CM face had more to do with “optics and narrative” than any actual electoral gains the alliance hopes to reap.

Sahani’s patchy electoral record

A former set designer in Bollywood, Sahani switched to politics a decade ago; first as a BJP campaigner and then as an ally after floating the VIP in 2018. In 2019, he was with the Grand Alliance when he lost his debut Lok Sabha contest from the Khagaria seat by a margin of nearly 2.50 lakh votes.

The following year, he dramatically walked out of the Grand Alliance to join the NDA, which offered his party 11 seats to contest in the 2020 assembly polls. Though four of his candidates won, Sahani lost from the Simri Bakhtiarpur seat in Saharsa.

Also Read: Bihar polls: After naming Tejashwi as CM face, Mahagathbandhan to release CMP soon

Two years later, when his MLAs defected to the BJP, a fuming Sahani exited the NDA and shortly thereafter was back in the Grand Alliance. Last year, his party fielded three candidates in the Lok Sabha polls; all lost.

Despite this unimpressive electoral record, Tejashwi chose to keep Sahani constantly by his side, ostensibly to underscore an earnest EBC outreach. Yet, the camaraderie did little when it came down to seat-sharing negotiations. The VIP chief began bargaining for as many as 60 seats; a demand the RJD and other allies only scoffed at.

Importance of EBCs

As things panned out, days after grudgingly signing off on a seat-sharing deal that secured his party only 15 seats of which the VIP is officially in the fray now only on 12, Sahani has managed to get endorsed as Tejashwi’s running mate.

A constant refrain among alliance leaders is that Sahani, who prefers to be hailed as ‘Son of Mallah’ which is also his official X handle, has marshalled his caste identity to his advantage despite lacking any electoral heft.

A senior Left leader from the state told The Federal, “Sahani’s projection tells you a lot about the importance of caste in Bihar’s politics. He is a leader with no electoral success to his credit, he is not even fighting the election and his party is fighting on just a dozen seats out of which they are unlikely to win even half and yet he has got Tejashwi and Congress to declare him the deputy CM face because he knows that this election will be decided by the EBCs.”

Also Read: Amit Shah's remark proves BJP will ditch Nitish Kumar after polls: Tejashwi Yadav

Another leader from the Grand Alliance said, “Sahani belongs to the Mallah community which is just 2.5 per cent of the state’s population, but because the Mallahs are part of the larger Nishad community (comprising boatmen and fishermen from the Bind, Manjhi, Kevat, and other sub-castes) which collectively form a 9.6 per cent vote bloc and are concentrated in constituencies along the Ganga, Gandak, Kosi, and other rivers, he has been able to leverage his caste identity... if by projecting a Mallah deputy CM, we can corner even half the Nishad vote, it may significantly change the results in our favour”.

More than one Deputy CM

Sahani’s projection may, thus, seem like a reasonable gamble but then a gamble it still is. Sources in the alliance say how other castes and communities react to the decision could make or mar the Opposition’s chances. It is to prevent any backlash from other communities that Tejashwi and his allies are now busy asserting Sahani will have to share the post with representatives of two other communities.

RJD and Congress insiders say the alliance, if voted to power, would have a deputy CM each from the Dalit and Muslim communities too, but add that an upfront announcement to this effect was not possible.

Also Read: How Bihar NDA sidelines EBCs in seat allotment despite vote-bank loyalty

“It would have created complications. It would have consolidated forward castes behind the NDA, particularly the BJP, and if we announced a Muslim deputy CM, we would have handed the BJP a chance for communal polarisation. We would have also created friction within our alliance because then the question would be whether the Muslim or Dalit deputy CM would be from RJD, the Congress, or the Left,” a senior RJD MP told The Federal.

By declaring a Yadav CM and a Mallah deputy CM candidate while keeping the hopes up among other communities, sources say the alliance has opted for “the most pragmatic approach under the current circumstances”.

Word of caution for Tejashwi

A section within the alliance, however, also has a word of caution for Tejashwi over his repeated taunts about Nitish’s political future, should the NDA return to power.

“It is one thing to say that we have declared our leadership and ask the NDA to now declare their CM face, but constantly mocking Nitish is not advisable. Over the past 20 years, Nitish has created a loyal support base among EBCs and a section of OBCs just like Lalu once did for the RJD. Poking fun at Nitish over his mental health or political future could prove counter-productive if his support base feels that it needs to consolidate behind their leader once again because he is being hounded by allies and rivals alike... and, what if sensing that the JD-U vote is slipping, the BJP finally announces Nitish as CM face closer to polling; where will that leave us,” asked a former Bihar Congress MLA.