Why Modi is reluctant to declare Nitish Kumar as NDA's Bihar CM face

As Bihar gets set for Assembly polls later this year, uncertainty haunts the ruling NDA over the chief ministerial face.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi giving no hint in this regard during his recent visit to the state has only added to the suspense.

The NDA will undoubtedly fight the election under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar but the bigger question is who will head the next NDA government in the state if it wins.

Will the BJP continue to remain a junior partner in the government? Or, will it replicate the Maharashtra model, where its candidate Devendra Fadnavis took over as CM in the place of incumbent Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena last year?

No end to speculation

Amid speculation over the likely sidelining of Nitish post-election, given his suspected health issues and the BJP’s ambitious plan to have its party leader as Bihar CM for the first time, Modi has chosen to keep mum. He has, till date, refrained from declaring Nitish as the CM face of the NDA, ignoring repeated demands by JD(U) leaders and Nitish’s son Nishant.

Also read | Nitish Kumar faces 'jungle raj' charge as crime graph soars: Bihar ground report

Leaders of the NDA, particularly from the JD(U), had expected Modi to end months of speculation by publicly naming Nitish as the CM candidate at his rally at Bikramganj, in Bihar's Rohtas district, on May 30. It was Modi's fourth visit to Bihar this year.

Bihar BJP sources told The Federal Modi did make such a mention even in a briefing with party leaders on the Bihar election strategy.

It appears to be a deliberate move by the party high command to take the upper hand in Bihar after playing second fiddle to Nitish over the past two decades.

BJP’s new game plan?

Modi's silence on the issue has disappointed JD(U) leaders, workers and supporters. It has fuelled speculation that the BJP has a post-election gameplan ready.

In March, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during his visit to Gopalganj in Bihar, did not mention the CM face either. He merely appealed to people to support the NDA.

Also read | Jhansi Rani to Kanimozhi to Kalpana Soren, Indian women leaders are rarely Plan A

Incidentally, it was Shah who first raised the topic last year, saying there was no decision yet on the NDA's CM face in the Bihar Assembly elections. Since then Modi and Shah have stuck to this stand.

Shah's widely reported statement “we will sit together and decide” didn’t go down well in JD(U) circles. Most senior JD(U) leaders have underlined that Nitish, who is also the party president, will be continue to be CM.

JD(U) backing Nitish

A huge hoarding with '25 se 30 Phir Se Nitish' ('Nitish again from 2025 to 2030') and banners and posters with slogans such as 'Nitish is favourite of all' and 'When there is a talk of Bihar, the only name shall be Nitish Kumar' welcome visitors at the JD(U) office in Patna, hardly 100 metres from the state BJP office.

“Nitish Kumar will very much play another inning, he is not going away. He has not even hinted once that he is stepping down. If his face was considered 'fit and suitable' for the CM's post till recently, what has changed now?" wondered JD(U) leader Neeraj Kumar.

He recalled that soon after Nitish realigned with the BJP on January 28, 2024, the JD(U) launched a campaign projecting him as the next NDA chief minister.

Watch | Lalu expels Tej Pratap: Family feud or pre-poll strategy?

Other JD(U) leaders admitted that Nitish has repeatedly changed sides over the past decade, but continued to remain the CM despite his party’s tally in the Assembly being much lower than that of the BJP and RJD. “Nitish is the only trusted face for the people of the state. His support base is wide and he enjoys more popularity than any other leader,” said Shrawan Kumar, Bihar Minister for Rural Development and Parliamentary Affairs.

Even Nitish has not yet hinted that he may drop out of the CM race after serving in the post from 2005 till date, barring a few months in 2014.

'Golden opportunity'

According to sources in Bihar BJP, the majority view is that this is a golden opportunity to replace Nitish Kumar as CM, as the BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party again.

“Yes, we will contest the next polls under the leadership of Nitish Kumar without projecting him as our CM face this time. The CM candidate will be decided after the polls. Our party has formed the government on its own in several states. Now it is the turn of Bihar,” Ravinder Singh, a BJP leader from Vaishali district, sipping tea at a shop near the BJP office, told The Federal.

His candid observation reflects the mood of the BJP’s rank and file across the state. This is the first time that the BJP is reluctant to project Nitish as the CM face ahead of polls.

Watch | The Sindoor strategy: Is BJP shaping Bihar elections?

Bihar is the only state in the Hindi heartland where the BJP does not have a chief minister in place. Senior party leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha was quite candid when he said last December that the real tribute to Atal Bihari Vajpayee would be paid only when there is a BJP government in Bihar. It is a different matter that he made a volte-face within 24 hours.

Political compulsion

Nitish may be a “political compulsion” for both the BJP and the RJD, who have no choice because they lack a CM face and need the support of his vote bank.

Political analysts say the BJP cannot risk contesting the election under a party leader, and hence needs Nitish. ”The BJP in Bihar lacks a leader who enjoys a statewide stature and the charisma to take on the Opposition. The party has no option but to bank on Nitish to woo voters because he remains relevant in the caste-ridden electoral politics of the state,” political commentator DK Diwakar told The Federal.

Also read | Bihar: Mahagathbandhan allies pull out all stops to get poll arithmetic right

The JD(U) has a strong support base among non-Yadav OBCs, EBCs and Dalits. ”The BJP was defeated in the 2015 state Assembly polls when it contested without an alliance with the JD(U),” another analyst recalled.

JD(U) to claim more seats

Now, all eyes are on Modi’s next Bihar visit, scheduled for June third week, when seat-sharing may be finalised. A JD(U) leader considered close to Nitish told The Federal that the latter has made it clear to the BJP leadership that his party will contest not less than 120 of the 243 seats. The remaining seats are to be divided between the BJP and its other allies in Bihar.

"The JD(U) wants to emerge as the single largest party after the next Assembly polls by contesting more seats than the BJP,” said the leader.

In the 2020 Assembly polls, the JD(U)’s tally had come down to 43 while the BJP won 74 seats.