Nitish likely to return as Bihar CM, but at the mercy of BJP

Barring any last-minute twist, decks have been cleared for Nitish Kumar’s return as Bihar’s chief minister despite his party, the Janata Dal (United), once again winning fewer seats than the BJP in the just-concluded assembly polls. The state’s new cabinet is likely to be sworn in on November 20, two days before the term of the current Bihar Assembly is scheduled to end, with Nitish taking oath as chief minister for the 10th time in 20 years.

Leaders from the NDA coalition who met Nitish over the weekend to congratulate him on the Bihar victory confirmed to The Federal that the BJP, which bagged 89 seats in Friday’s results against the JD(U)’s 84, had agreed to cede its claim on the chief minister’s post for now. There has been no discussion between the BJP and JD(U) leadership on the possibility of a change in the CM down the term of the incoming government, sources in both parties said.

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The NDA registered an immaculate, if befuddling, triumph in the polls on November 14 with a collective tally of 202 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. Alliance partners Lok Janshakti Party-Ramvilas of Union minister Chirag Paswan, Hindustani Awam Morcha of Union minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha of Upendra Kushwaha won 19, five, and four seats, respectively.

Cabinet meeting today

Over the weekend, hectic meetings took place among NDA leaders in both Patna and Delhi. While Nitish’s close aides – party working president Sanjay Jha and Union minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh ‘Lalan’ – met Union Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP national president JP Nadda in Delhi, Nitish held meetings with LJP-RV chief Chirag Paswan, BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary and RLM chief Upendra Kushwaha at his 1, Aney Marg residence in Patna over the weekend. HAM chief Manjhi, sources said, had also spoken to both Amit Shah and Nitish Kumar and endorsed Nitish’s continuation as chief minister.

Sources said Nitish will preside over a meeting of the caretaker cabinet on Monday where, following convention, a resolution will be adopted for dissolution of the Bihar Assembly. He is then expected to meet Bihar Governor Arif Mohammed Khan to hand over the resolution and simultaneously stake claim to form the new government. The official announcements of Nitish’s return as CM and the date of swearing-in of the new Bihar cabinet is also likely on Monday following the meeting with Khan.

Formula finalised

Senior JD(U) leaders and newly elected MLAs who began arriving in Patna on Saturday and have since had “courtesy meetings” with Nitish said a formula for giving representation to each constituent of the alliance in the new cabinet has also been finalised though there is still some suspense on the number of deputy chief ministers the new government is likely to have.

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“Nitishji will be returning as CM; there is no discussion on that now. For the cabinet, we have been told the formula is to have one minister for six MLAs, which would basically give the BJP 15 ministers, the JD-U 14 ministers and the LJP three ministers. A minister each will also be inducted from the parties of Manjhiji and Kushwaha,” a senior JD(U) leader and multiple-term MLA, who is also expected to be sworn-in as minister, told The Federal.

Two deputies likely

Sources said the BJP is keen to repeat the formula of having two deputy chief ministers from within its ranks in the new government too. In the outgoing cabinet, the post was shared by Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha. While Samrat, a backward caste Kushwaha, is expected to return as deputy CM again, sources in the BJP said the continuation of Sinha, a forward caste Bhumihar, remains uncertain as of now.

The Federal reported on November 14 that with his party registering an impressive performance of winning 19 of the 29 seats allotted to it in the NDA’s seat-sharing deal, Chirag is also keen to have a deputy CM post given to an MLA from his LJP-RV. Sources in the JD(U) said Chirag’s demand is still “under consideration”.

Sympathy wave for Nitish

By offering the CM’s chair once again to Nitish, the BJP would also be putting to rest heady speculations that had begun swirling as soon as the poll results came in over the party’s willingness to play second fiddle to the JD(U) chief despite being the party with a bigger seat-tally. To have a CM from its own ranks in Bihar has been a long-standing dream of the BJP and one that sundry party leaders, including CM hopeful Samrat Chaudhary, have often openly aired.

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Through the course of the Bihar poll campaign, questions over Nitish’s visibly failing health had also created doubts over both the possibility and the feasibility of his return to office in the event of another NDA victory. The JD(U)’s spectacular performance at the hustings has also been credited, in part, to a wave of sympathy for Nitish, who many in his traditional support base felt was being unjustly mocked on one hand by the Opposition, the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav in particular, for his failing mental faculties and cornered on the other by the BJP, which wanted the CM’s post for itself.

Nitish’s options limited

Up until the results threw up a brute majority for the NDA, with both JD(U) and the BJP registering an almost equal strike rate while the Grand Alliance stood totally annihilated with a combined tally of just 35 seats, there had even been speculations over the possibility of Nitish making yet another one of his infamous somersaults to the rival camp if the BJP forced him out of the CM office and allying with the RJD-led alliance could help him evade such an eventuality.

The results, however, have left Nitish with no room to explore another switch as, even with the 84 MLAs of his party, he can’t hope to muster a simple majority with the 35-seat tally of the Grand Alliance. This changed arithmetic too had made many wonder if the BJP would sense an opportunity to deny Nitish the CM’s post.

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As things stand, though, the saffron party has decided against pulling any such upset for its long-time but unpredictable ally, perhaps bearing in mind that the stability of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition government at the Centre is still reliant on the 12 Lok Sabha MPs from JD-U and orchestrating a Shiv Sena and NCP like split in that block may not be possible overnight.

Nitish, therefore, can rest easy for now – indebted to Modi for allowing him to continue as CM but, arguably, also perennially on edge wondering when the rug may be pulled from under him.