Nitish Kumar’s video pitch for Bihar polls: Can he turn votes in JD(U)’s favour again?

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar released a four-minute campaign video seeking votes in the name of governance a week before the first phase of polling. In this Capital Beat episode, panellists Sanjay Kumar, Professor, AN College (Anugrah Narayan College), Patna, and senior journalist Gautam Sarkar examined the message, the opposition’s line of attack, and on-ground electoral signals.

The discussion focused on the video’s framing of governance gains, the Opposition’s health-related criticism of the chief minister, and questions over law and order raised after a recent killing in Mokama. The panel also addressed alliance equations, seat prospects, and the role of smaller parties.

Sanjay Kumar noted that the video featured familiar themes of governance and social peace. Gautam Sarkar outlined Nitish Kumar’s earlier image as a governance-focused leader and the recent debate over his public visibility.

What the video says

Sanjay Kumar described the chief minister’s video as consistent with past messaging. “What Nitish Kumar is saying is nothing new,” he stated, identifying two central planks: “he is not doing this communal card” and “the second thing is governance.”

Also read: Nitish Kumar says he worked for Bihar, not family, ahead of 2025 polls

He listed improvements highlighted over time. “Law and order is already improved, infrastructures already improved… roads and electricity,” he said, while pointing to one continuing gap: “Due to lack of industry people are migrating from Bihar to other states.”

He added that the Opposition’s current targeting patterns are evident. “Opposition is trying to attack Nitish Kumar less but BJP in a very big way,” he observed, recalling that migration had been flagged earlier “by Prashant Kishore.”

Law-and-order questions

The panel addressed criticism after a recent incident in Mokama. Sanjay Kumar acknowledged the concerns and differentiated between broader trends and specific episodes. “There is no state-sponsored criminal activities with used to be held earlier,” he said, while calling the recent “broad daylight” killing of social activist Dularchand Yadav in Mokama a serious episode under inquiry.

He cautioned against premature conclusions on culpability. “Right now we cannot establish. There is no official statement from police side,” he remarked, noting that details in circulation were largely from “news channels and social media”.

He described the incident as “big… in a recent past,” while reiterating his earlier view that broader indicators of law and order had improved.

Visibility, health and campaign posture

Gautam Sarkar reviewed the arc of Nitish Kumar’s public image since 2005. He recalled that the leader was once labelled “sushasan” for governance outcomes at a time when the state faced criticism as “jungle raj”.

He contrasted that period with recent months. “Remaining the last one or two years… Nitish’s activity… mixing with the common people… with the media, they restricted,” he noted, adding that videos circulated on social platforms had fuelled discussion about health.

Also read: Amit Shah's 'no vacancy' comment, and the renewed stature of Nitish

Sarkar assessed the present move to release a video message as calculated. “Nitish Kumar is a very mature politician,” he said, describing him as “a very good… mathematician” of social signals and alliances.

Smaller parties and vote transfers

The panel examined alliances and the electoral footprint of smaller players. Sanjay Kumar contrasted the last election with the current landscape. He said that previously the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) “had dented JD(U)”, but added that this time “if they get in even 10 seats that will be a surprise”.

He also commented on on-ground optics. Referring to Chirag Paswan’s campaign presence, he said, “He is very much upset what his body language is there,” and mentioned recent public gestures of outreach. Sanjay Kumar stressed Nitish Kumar’s experience as “a very veteran politician” and “hard bargainer.”

Gautam Sarkar discussed the Jan Suraaj mobilisation. He argued that campaigning by Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj had created traction in sections “compelled to migrate for their livelihood,” adding that such activity “certainly dent” specific voter segments.

Crowds, rallies and momentum

Sanjay Kumar reflected on rally turnouts across parties. He stated that in several events by national leaders there were visible gaps: “There are so many empty chairs.” He contrasted this with public meetings by leaders from the opposition, observing that they were “catching the crowd.”

Also read: Nitish Kumar attacks Lalu, says it was a 'mistake' to have briefly allied with RJD

He gave a measured assessment of the chief minister’s own events. “That was not very successful… but most of them were successful,” he said regarding rally attendance across venues.

He summarised Nitish Kumar’s tactical position as strengthening. “Now the… posture is somewhat different,” he said of the NDA’s signalling, interpreting the line “there is no vacancy of CM” to suggest that Nitish Kumar “is going to be the next CM,” while emphasising that no formal declaration had been made.

Shifts within the NDA

The conversation turned to how allies might adapt. Sanjay Kumar said there had been a change from earlier confidence to present calculations. “BJP earlier was in very roji atmosphere that this time they are going to win single-handedly, but now the situation is very different and this compulsion they have realized,” he said.

He added that Nitish Kumar’s standing in alliance negotiations had firmed up over recent weeks. “It won’t be a surprise that… they might declare him as a CM candidate,” he said, while noting there was no official announcement yet.

Gautam Sarkar echoed the possibility of a formal projection emerging from the NDA. “BJP might… announce him the next chief minister very soon,” he said, adding that campaign dynamics had altered “as the poll campaigning [got] momentum.”

Friendly contests and alternative arithmetic

Sanjay Kumar described seat-level patterns between the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal. He referred to “a tacit alliance… not officially declared” and said “there are 30 seats where they are fighting friendly and there is transfer of votes also.”

Also read: Modi says NDA under Nitish Kumar will break all poll records in Bihar

He outlined one potential post-poll path, conditional on outcomes. He said that if the Mahagathbandhan and JDU together reached “even 123 or 130” seats, “there won’t be a surprise that Nitish Kumar will leave BJP and he will join hand with RJD,” presenting it as one scenario under discussion.

Gautam Sarkar said actual alignments would depend on the performance of emerging players. “The position of Jan Suraaj it is very important,” he said, adding that “the equation will be… when [Jan Suraaj] will get” seats, while stating his view that it “will certainly help BJP.”

BJP’s projection dilemma

Sanjay Kumar evaluated the risks confronting the BJP’s public stance. He called it “a situation like saving its nose,” noting two difficult options: formal projection of Nitish Kumar or a continued absence of clarity. “If he declares Nitish Kumar CM candidate… that is also not good for BJP. If he doesn’t declare then survival is… at a state,” he said.

He characterised the environment as fluid. “Situation is very very interesting now and election has come to such a situation that things are not very clear,” he said, referring to multiple moving parts across the campaign.

He also commented on perceptions around leadership strategy. Reviewing the last fortnight, he observed that activity levels pointed to organisational control. “If a person is ill, how can he manage the things which he have already managed so smartly?” he asked, comparing present coordination with earlier concerns.

Closing phase of campaign

Gautam Sarkar summarised the alliance calculus as it stood during the discussion. He said the BJP “now started realizing” the need for Nitish Kumar’s leadership to “save” the government in Bihar.

Also read: Nitish will not be made Bihar CM if NDA voted to power, claims Tejashwi at poll rally

He reiterated that campaign developments and the performance of new entrants would decide the eventual contours of seat-sharing and post-poll negotiations. He said the party could “announce him the next chief minister very soon” in light of these shifts.

Sanjay Kumar aligned his closing remarks to the same pivot. He described Nitish Kumar as “the best choice” in the current balance outlined by the panel and pointed to the NDA’s evolving posture on leadership projection during the ongoing campaign.

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