Can India really stop Indus water from flowing into Pakistan?

India has put on hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) after the terrorist massacre at Pahalgam but experts admit that New Delhi is in no position to immediately stop the flow of water to Pakistan, which needs it so badly.

Notwithstanding bombastic claims that “not a drop of water” will go to Pakistan henceforth, those in the know say it will take a while for India to put in measures that will have the desired result.

Building dams in an ecologically sensitive region to harness the water flow can take a few years, perhaps even a decade. The financial factor is also important.

Immediate steps

However, the suspension of the treaty means some things will happen right away.

India will no longer have to notify Pakistan about projects on the western rivers, nor share any data. It would also not entertain visits by Pakistani officials for periodic inspections.

Also read: Explained: What is Indus Waters Treaty? How will its suspension hit Pakistan?

Indus Water Treaty

The 1960 pact allocated water from the Indus river system between India and Pakistan.

India was assigned control over the eastern rivers and their tributaries — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. All their waters have been available for India’s unrestricted use.

Pakistan got the rights to the western rivers and their tributaries — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. All three rivers form part of the treaty.

Present limitations

While 80 per cent of Pakistan's farms depend on water from the Indus system, India can, with the current infrastructure, at best store a portion of the water flowing into Pakistan for now.

Despite the potential to harness the western rivers effectively due to their steep mountainous terrain, India's current storage capacity on these rivers is negligible, limited by the treaty’s restrictions.

According to news agency PTI, India's current dams and barrages on the western rivers and their tributaries can store less than 1 million-acre feet (MAF).

The annual flow of the eastern rivers totals some 33 MAF or 41 billion cubic meters (bcm). For the western rivers, this works out to about 135 MAF (99 bcm).

Experts’ view

Sushant Sareen at the Observer Research Foundation feels India does not have the capacity to divert or store from the western rivers as of now.

"Not immediately. But we can build our dams currently under construction without Pakistani obstruction and ensure we can impound waters when they are most needed by Pakistan,” he said.

Plus, we can start building more reservoirs and other structures to impound and divert water though these will only be possible in a few years," Sareen wrote on X.

In other words, without substantial infrastructure on western rivers, India cannot drastically alter its flows to Pakistan in the short term.

Also read: Indian blood will flow through Indus river, threatens Bilawal Bhutto

Lopsided pact?

Indian strategic experts maintain that the Indus Water Treaty may have survived many wars and long years of terrorism but it has always been loaded against India.

"India has been bearing the burdens of the treaty for 65 years without any benefits," strategic expert Brahma Chellaney wrote on X on Wednesday.

After the IWT, India effectively tapped into its 33 MAF share from the eastern rivers primarily for irrigation in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, and for hydropower generation.

Eastern, western rivers

Major infrastructure like the Bhakra Dam on the Sutlej enabled India to use nearly 95 per cent of its allocated share, according to a published report.

But India’s usage on the western rivers has been very limited.

Even before the treaty was suspended, India had several planned and under-construction projects to maximise its water use on the western rivers and their tributaries. However, these were focused on generating hydroelectricity without large live storage reservoirs.

Also read: Pahalgam revenge: Why India should not go for an Israel-like assault

Halting some water

The Shahpurkandi Dam on the Ravi river, which is now complete, helped India to divert some 1,150 cusecs of water which earlier flowed into Pakistan for its irrigation purposes.

According to PK Saxena, a former Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters, India can now undertake reservoir flushing on the Kishanganga project, which will increase the life of the dam.

The Central government reportedly has plans in the short, mid and long-term to halt the flow of the Indus water to Pakistan by enhancing the capacity of dams along the Indus basin rivers.

Revising the treaty

India is also determined to revisit the treaty at some point — if it is not scrapped.

With the treaty suspended, India is likely to fast-track its hydroelectric ambitions.

Also, according to some estimates, India lets about 9.3 billion cubic metres flow into Pakistan from its share of the eastern rivers — something New Delhi may now wish to stop.

The western rivers support 23 per cent of Pakistan’s agricultural water use and sustain roughly 68 per cent of its rural population. Naturally, a long-term stoppage of the water flow can cause major problems.