Telangana's maize acreage has nearly doubled in a single season, but cheap US imports could turn the boom to bust. Representational image
Why US-India trade deal could put Telangana’s maize boom at risk
Telangana farmers have doubled maize acreage chasing better returns, but a US trade deal could flood the market and crush farmgate prices
Telangana’s maize farmers are caught in a bind. They have gone and bet heavily on the maize crop, with acreage surging from 7.25 lakh acres to 11.21 lakh acres in a single rabi season, which is nearly 174 per cent above the seasonal norm.
However, a looming US-India trade agreement, for which an interim deal has already been signed, threatens to undercut the prices that made maize attractive in the first place. This has created uncertainty and anxiety among the farmers.
Shift away from cotton
The maize boom is, in large part, a cotton story in reverse. Cotton acreage in Telangana has been sliding since 2023, falling from 50 lakh acres to under 44 lakh acres in successive kharif seasons, before a modest recovery in 2025. State Agriculture Director V Gopi confirmed that farmers are switching crops, while Telangana MARKFED MD V Srinivasa Reddy attributed the swing to stronger maize procurement in recent years.
The economics are straightforward. AIKS Vice President Sarampally Malla Reddy explained that when cotton prices disappoint, farmers weigh two alternatives: groundnut or maize.
Groundnut seeds cost Rs 5,000-6,000 per acre, while maize seeds cost Rs 500-600. The latter matures in 90 days, tolerates rain damage well enough for ethanol plant use, and yields around 25 quintals per acre — roughly double the input investment.
Demand from poultry farms and ethanol distilleries has added an industrial floor to the prices. For farmers watching paddy input costs rise and cotton diseases spread, maize appeared to be the rational choice.
The trade deal threat
The problem is that rational choices made in a protected market can unravel fast when that protection disappears. Food and trade policy analyst Devinder Sharma pointed out that when India briefly removed the 11 per cent import duty on cotton, availability jumped 95 per cent and farmgate prices fell by Rs 1,000-1,500 per bale. A comprehensive US-India deal would likely repeat this pattern — not just for cotton, but for maize.
The maize risk is acute. Despite strong domestic demand from the ethanol sector, Telangana farmers are already receiving only Rs 1,200-1,600 per quintal against an MSP of Rs 2,400. The market, even without large-scale imports, is failing to deliver the support price.
Sharma noted that the US maize entering India as DDGS (dried distillers' grains with solubles, a byproduct of ethanol production) would be a 100 per cent GM crop.
Kavita Kuruganti, founder-convenor of the Alliance for Sustainable and Holistic Agriculture, warned that both maize and soya prices are vulnerable to a crash if US imports are allowed to flow freely. The logic of permitting DDGS imports at all, she argued, has never been adequately explained.
Professor Althas Janaiah, vice-chancellor of the Professor Jayashankar Telangana Agricultural University, added a structural point. The US provides a $1.50 export subsidy for every dollar of cotton exported. The Telangana Rythu Bharosa scheme, by contrast, doesn’t cover even 5 per cent of crop production costs. Indian farmers are being asked to compete on an uneven field.
Market distortion angle
Meanwhile, Dr A Amarender Reddy of ICAR warned that if the US faces a bumper maize harvest, dumping will be a real possibility. With China having stopped imports, India may become American farmers' primary large market. Europe blocks US maize using GM labelling as a non-tariff barrier.
India has no equivalent protection in place. The result would be GM-traced grain entering the domestic food chain through poultry and ethanol supply routes.
Retired IICT chief scientist Dr K Babu Rao raised another uncomfortable fact: ethanol plants are currently supplied rice at Rs 22.50 per kg, against an FCI procurement cost of Rs 40 per kg. The industry survives on public subsidy and bank loan waivers. If US imports depress maize prices, plant owners can walk away from their largely borrowed capital. Farmers cannot.
Regulatory gaps exploited
Contract farmer and processor Venu Akula has documented how DGFT notifications have quietly enabled duty-free imports of popcorn-variety maize corn under the cover of industrial use, with the grain then traded raw in violation of import conditions.
In Karnataka, where popcorn maize is grown commercially, farmgate prices have collapsed from Rs 80 to Rs 30 per kg. The same dynamic, Akula argues, is being engineered for the broader maize market — benefiting a small group of importers while hollowing out domestic production incentives.
The irony, as Akula puts it, is that India produces enough maize to meet domestic needs. With proper price support, acreage would grow further and export surpluses would follow. The question is whether the trade deal being negotiated in Delhi will give farmers that chance — or take it away.
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