No evidence links vaccines to autism, says top vaccinologist Jacob John

In a conversation with The Federal, Dr Jacob John, who teaches vaccinology at CMC and is a member of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI), completely ruled out any linkage between vaccines and a rise in autism among children in India.

"No peer review literature has yet shown any linkage between Covid or measles vaccines and autism," John, who is involved in closely monitoring such risks related to vaccines, told The Federal in a telephonic interview. There is just no scientific data to back this kind of claim, he emphasised.

Fierce debate on social media

The Federal spoke to the professor amid a heated debate on social media triggered by ZOHO founder Sridhar Vembu's post on the X (formerly Twitter) platform. Vembu retweeted a post from Nicolas Hulscher, who quoted the McCullough Foundation’s Report on the “Determinants of Autism Spectrum Disorder” to say: “The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted on the causes of autism finds vaccination is the DOMINANT risk factor.”

The rise of autism is "multi-factorial", but vaccination is the "most significant preventable driver of autism", the post claimed. Sharing the study and appealing to parents to be mindful, Vembu, who earlier had advocated drinking cow urine, said it was concerning that very young children in India were getting far too many vaccines, and linked it to the rise in autism. Vembu has 3,91,000 followers on X.

Replying to Vembu’s post, tagging an earlier story in The Federal, Dr Cyriac Abby Philips, who goes by the handle “The Liver Doc”, responded sharply. “You don't want polio to come back. You don't want measles to kill your child like it is doing in the US because boomer uncles in charge of US Health Departments have become anti-science,” he tweeted.

'No autism risk'

According to John, the vaccine-autism link claim harks back to The Lancet study published by Andrew Wakefield in 1998. Wakefield, a gastroenterologist, had claimed an increased risk of autism in children who took the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine. This paper was later junked for having created falsified data.

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"This paper was proved wrong and retracted. But the harm was done as people became scared of the vaccine and this eventually led to a measles outbreak in Europe and US,” said John.

Both global and regional key influencers feel they can say anything as free speech and face no consequences for it. This is causing a lot of concern."

He also referred to landmark Danish studies conducted by researchers at the Statens Serum Institute in Copenhagen, who have repeatedly and definitively found no autism risk due to vaccines.

Better diagnosis, awareness

John also said there appear to be more cases of autism now than earlier because of better diagnosis and greater awareness.

Several other factors could also be contributing to autism in children, which we need to consider, he said, adding that observational data analysis is ongoing but no significant scientific studies have been published as yet. Scientific information has to be analysed using scientific paradigms, and extremely large databases are not showing any signs of such links, he added.

"There are well-documented databases available in Europe, the UK, and the Scandinavian countries on what is happening. Unfortunately, we don't have large databases in India, and so we take cases we find and try to compare them with some controls. In these cases, too, we have not found any such evidence," explained John.

Fall in vaccine coverage

"Unfortunately, powerful or influential voices speak out on these matters, and it becomes the 'truth', rued John. "And the burden of proving that there is no problem falls on the public health system. In a democracy, people can speak of such issues, but they should be aware of the consequences and accept the responsibility for the fallout when people shun vaccines because of these views."

The professor also said the misinformation was having an impact. "We are seeing the measles vaccine uptake in the country is extremely low, and we are unable to initiate any of the flu vaccine in adults," he shared.

Lashing out at people who are spreading "unsubstantiated" views, he said, "There is a hesitancy among people because of this constant barrage of information on vaccines. People have become suspicious of vaccines.

Vaccine coverage is falling in India, he said. "Both global and regional key influencers feel they can say anything as free speech and face no consequences for it. This is causing a lot of concern."

COVID vaccines saved lives

Four years down the line after the pandemic, what do we know about the 'after-effects' of COVID vaccines?

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In the professor's view, COVID vaccines undeniably helped to save a lot of lives. "It was a key instrument to protect vulnerable subgroups of the population, especially older people and people with co-morbidities. This cohort definitely benefited from COVID vaccine. This is indisputable from all the evidence available to us," he said.

However, since there was no transparency in how vaccines were tested and certified and vaccines were mandated, and combined with a lack of communication, people got suspicious. "The seeds of suspicion were sown back then. But we needed the vaccine out to quickly protect the vulnerable and could not wait for the traditional timelines for any vaccine. It prevented deaths, but there could have been better communication with the people about the vaccines," he stressed.

On the nagging question of the side-effects to the vaccine, John said the WHO's Adverse Events Following Immunisition (AEFI) showed that there have been some side-effects. “We don't know what the side-effects are. But that is expected of any vaccine – there is bound to be a local reaction and fatigue. However, we did not find anything severe. Some said it caused Gillian Barrow syndrome, but that was finally debunked, too. But overall, the benefits outweighed the problems related to the vaccine. Any linkages to autism, chronic cardiovascular diseases or dementia were not substantiated by facts," he said.

Link to cardio-vascular disease

Pointing out that vaccines function by producing antibodies in the body, which can cause inflammation, John said that if at all they were probing any linkages to COVID vaccines, it would be to the increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

"The strongest likelihood would have been the vaccine's link to cardiovascular diseases. But, that is not evident either. Though there are increasing trends of younger people with acute myocardial disease, the linkage to COVID is not available," he said.

They are still groping in the dark whether this trend is due to the vaccine or to the person having contracted COVID. Or, whether it is because of sedentary lives or due to the excessive mobile access in the last ten years. "It can be connected to any of this," wryly observed John.