Could Modi's Ukraine visit be a harbinger of peace?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s proposed visit to Kyiv will take place amid expectations it might pave the way for a peace process.

Modi has said that India "would continue to do everything within its means to support a peaceful solution".

Modi’s visit, for half a day on August 23, will be the first visit by an Indian prime minister after Ukraine's formation after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The visit to Kyiv was finalised after Modi met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Italy in July 2024. Zelenskiy hugged Modi and invited him to visit.

Ukraine perhaps wants India to act as a mediator. It believes New Delhi has more leverage over Moscow compared to any western country.

In March 2024, the foreign ministers of India and Ukraine met in New Delhi with both countries agreeing to strengthen bilateral ties.

In a phone call with Modi, Zelenskiy encouraged India to attend the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. The two leaders also discussed ways to strengthen bilateral ties.

Modi did not attend the summit and India did not endorse the joint statement from the summit (stating that all stakeholders to the conflict including Russia should be present).

A peacemaker?

However, strategic experts think India may be interested in becoming a "peacemaker".

The West may look to India and Modi to act as the arbitrator and exert influence on President Vladimir Putin to end the 28-month war.

Even if New Delhi is able to make a limited contribution to peace, it will be a major milestone. It will enhance India’s status as a "leading power", a formulation proposed by Modi time and again.

India’s attempt to broker peace, however, will not be a one-off attempt but rather a part of a process.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine seem ready for peace. Although both Moscow and Kyiv have said that they want an end to the war, each wants it on its own terms.

Moscow is unwilling to relinquish territory it has occupied in Ukraine —Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Among other demands, Moscow also wants Ukrainian troops to pull out from the regions annexed by Russia, but not fully controlled by it.

This is a red line for Kyiv and hence a non-starter.

No compromise

Kyiv does not want to compromise on its sovereignty and territorial integrity. That could lead to a revolution bringing further instability in Ukraine.

Kyiv also wants to retrieve all the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea. It wants Russia to pull its troops from all of Ukraine’s territory, something that Moscow will never do.

The US and NATO have also rejected Russia’s demands to end the war. It is extremely unlikely the two sides will reconcile their differences.

The war, therefore, is likely to continue. Although both sides are tired, they are not yet exhausted.

India can act as a mediator in the war.

Modi in his numerous phone calls with both Putin and Zelenskiy has called for an end to the war through dialogue and negotiations. It has adopted a neutral stance in the war.

'Dialogue and diplomacy'

Modi has reiterated India’s position of ending the Russia-Ukraine war through diplomacy and dialogue on numerous occasions in international forums. Even in his meeting with Putin during his two-day visit to Russia in July, he stressed that "there is no solution on the battlefield. Dialogue and diplomacy are the way forward".

As part of its neutral strategy, however, India has failed to publicly criticise Russia for invading Ukraine. It has also not publicly condoned the war and has abstained on all motions and resolutions introduced in international forums which have criticised Moscow for its invasion.

New Delhi has, however, been indirectly critical of Russia by constantly highlighting respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of states, international law and the United Nations Charter. Modi also refrained from travelling to Russia in 2022 and 2023 for an annual India-Russia Summit.

At the 2022 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in his bilateral meeting with Putin, Modi stated that "today’s era is not of war".

The West, led by the US, has been critical of India’s neutral stance. The US and Ukraine were extremely critical of Modi for hugging Putin during the latter’s two-day visit to Russia (which coincided with the NATO summit).

On the same day, a Russian missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv which killed innocent civilians including children forced Modi to implicitly rebuke Putin.

China's role

However, the US-led West would prefer to have India (which has strong ties with both Russia and the US) rather than China as a mediator.

Unlike China, which has also professed neutrality in the war, India has not provided any material support to the Russian war effort.

India has not publicly and explicitly apportioned blame on one side for hostilities unlike China which has blamed the US-led West and NATO’s eastward expansion.

Unlike Beijing, New Delhi has not used state-controlled media resources to amplify either party’s official narrative.

Moreover, China’s peace proposal published in February 2023 was perceived as favouring Moscow with Ukraine and the West expressing their disappointment with Beijing’s plan.

Modi has visited Russia recently. His visit to Kyiv will strengthen the India-Ukraine bilateral relationship. Like with Russia, Modi will bring the message of peace to Ukraine and talk with Zelenskiy about ending the war and restoring peace.

However, it is unlikely that he will have a peace plan with him. Modi is well aware that both Moscow and Kyiv are as yet unwilling to sit at the negotiating table to end the war.

(Written by Raj Verma, Shanghai International Studies University. Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info.)