Hasina verdict leaves Awami League with two options: Irrelevance or reinvention

Bangladesh’s oldest political party faces an existential crisis after a tribunal sentenced deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity for her government’s crackdown on last year’s mass protest, leading to at least 1,400 deaths.

The tribunal, established by Hasina to prosecute alleged war crimes from the nation’s Liberation War in 1971, found her and her Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal guilty on all five counts related to the crackdown.

Reorganising without Hasina

Zobaida Nasreen, a political analyst, told the media that the party’s survival depends on reorganising without Hasina, who fled to India after the August 2024 uprising and has been running her party from there. “How it responds will define its future relevance,” she said.

Political analyst Professor Dr Sabbir Ahmed of Dhaka University told The Federal that the party has scope to survive given its large supporter base. Still, Barrister Shahriar Kabir, a Supreme Court lawyer, said it would be a tall task, if not an impossible one.

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Barring sporadic incidents of improvised bomb explosions and arson targeting passenger buses in the days leading up to the verdict, the party’s response to Hasina’s conviction has been muted. Its call for a daylong shutdown across Bangladesh received a less-than-lukewarm reaction, highlighting the party's weakened organisational capacity, which led the nation during its War of Independence from Pakistan.

Kabir compared Hasina’s sentencing to that of Jamaat-e-Islami leader Delwar Hossain Sayedee, who was convicted for war crimes. “Sayedee’s verdict triggered clashes across the country, killing dozens of people, but what happened after Hasina’s ruling? Nobody came out to protest. All her MPs fled after her government’s fall last year,” he said.

The interim government, which took charge after the Awami League’s fall, has barred the party from formal political activities, while the Election Commission suspended its registration. This means the Awami League, which has been in office for over 15 years since 2009, cannot participate in the February elections.

In need of another Zohra

Many analysts compared the Awami League’s current crisis with the period following the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father and Bangladesh’s founding father. The party eventually reunited under Hasina in 1981 after years of factionalism, suggesting that history offers both caution and hope.

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Crucial to its survival during the tumultuous 1970s was Zohra Tajuddin, wife of Bangladesh’s first Prime Minister, Tajuddin Ahmed.

Zohra, as a senior leader, worked tirelessly to rebuild the Awami League’s organisational structure. Her leadership in coordinating grassroots networks, mentoring young leaders, and keeping the party united after Hasina’s return laid the groundwork for its revival and eventual dominance in Bangladesh’s politics.

What experts say

Political historian Dr Kamal Hossain noted, “Without Zohra Tajuddin’s steady hand during the party’s darkest hours, the Awami League may never have re-emerged as the central force it became in the 1980s.”

But the situation is very different this time, says Barrister Kabir. “No Awami League MP resigned after Mujib’s assassination. Khondaker Mostaq Ahmad, one of Mujib’s ministers, formed the subsequent government. The Awami League was active as a political party at that time, unlike now,” he said.

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Hasina’s children, Sajeeb Wazed Joy and Saima Wazed Putul, are abroad, and there is no unifying force for the party in Bangladesh. Many, if not most, senior Awami League leaders fled abroad after Hasina’s fall, and those who couldn’t went into hiding. Numerous Awami League leaders and activists have been implicated and arrested in cases filed over the July Uprising.

The combination of death sentences, political proscription, and exile presents an unprecedented challenge for the party as it looks for ways to make itself relevant again in the country’s politics.

Hanging by a thread?

Despite exile and sentencing, Hasina remains central to party loyalty. Presidium member Abdur Rahman emphasised, “All Awami League activities across the country will be carried out under the guidance of our people’s leader.”

Even with restrictions, the party attempted a “Dhaka lockdown” and an online shutdown in November, showing Hasina’s enduring influence.

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Prof Ahmed blamed Hasina’s rash actions for her party’s downfall. “They should admit their mistakes [and move forward]… Hasina fled without taking responsibility, putting the party and its future in danger. Her adamant position will weaken the party further,” he said, adding that the Awami League’s large supporter base should help it pull itself together in the coming months.

A small-scale survey by Innovision in September found that the Awami League still enjoys nearly 19 per cent support among the respondents.

‘Hasina should have faced trial’

Investigations are ongoing into affiliated organisations for alleged complicity in the July Uprising violence. Hasina, from Delhi, rejected all charges as politically motivated, alleging bias in the tribunal and selective prosecution.

Barrister Kabir said the judgment has been fair despite some limitations. “She should have returned to Bangladesh and stood trial if she were innocent, like former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia,” he said, adding that Hasina did not even challenge the UN’s findings.

Also Read: Bangladesh court sentences Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity

Human rights groups note the widespread violence during the protests and caution that politically charged trials could deepen national polarisation.

The verdict arrives amid economic uncertainty. Bangladesh’s growth has slowed sharply, and the country sought a $4.7-billion IMF bailout last year.

Social scars from the July Uprising remain deep, with hundreds of student deaths and ongoing public fear. The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, faces the dual challenge of maintaining stability and managing political fragmentation.

‘People will decide’

Hasina’s symbolic presence may sustain loyalty, but organisational weakness risks fragmentation under political repression and social unrest.

As Bangladesh confronts Hasina’s death sentence, the Awami League stands at a crossroads. It faces the prospect of irrelevance or reinvention.

The coming months will be a period of challenge for the Awami League. The party's ability to navigate Hasina’s exile and condemnation will influence the nation’s political trajectory in the coming decades.

“I think the Awami League faces an uncertain future… but it’s up to the people to decide,” said Kabir, adding, “Bangladesh’s political future depends on the July Charter. It will be bright if we can implement it; otherwise, we’re doomed.”