Iran-US peace talks show breakthrough as draft ceasefire deal emerges

The ongoing West Asia conflict that has upended the global fuel supply and oil trade is reportedly heading towards a breakthrough in peace talks between Iran and the US, with negotiators from both sides apparently inching towards agreeing upon a proposed memorandum of understanding.

According to an Axios report, citing US officials and people familiar with the discussions, the talks have produced what some inside the administration view as the most substantial breakthrough of the conflict so far, even if a final political settlement remains out of reach.

Draft terms

The hope for a breakthrough in the peace talks is centred upon a "one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding." The document, if accepted by both sides, would serve two immediate purposes, including bringing about a ceasefire and opening a "30-day negotiation window" for broader nuclear and security talks.

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The report stated that under the emerging framework, Iran would suspend nuclear enrichment activities on a short-term basis and in return, the US would begin easing economic pressure through phased withdrawal of sanctions and staggered release of frozen Iranian assets worth billions.

Regional relief

Parallel discussions are also said to include measures to ease military tensions and improve commercial movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade of which by Iran has been a major bone of contention with the US.

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However, the report stated that several of the provisions remain explicitly "conditional on the outcome of further negotiations," leaving open the possibility of "renewed conflict or a prolonged period of uncertainty" if talks collapse.

Backchannel push

US officials told Axios that President Donald Trump's recent decision to reduce military activity in the Gulf was influenced by these diplomatic openings.

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The negotiations are reportedly being handled by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who have maintained contact with Tehran through direct exchanges and regional intermediaries. If finalised, the arrangement would formally "declare an end to the war" and move technical negotiations to Islamabad or Geneva.

Core dispute

The most difficult issue remains Tehran’s proposed "moratorium on uranium enrichment,” as Washington is said to be pushing for restrictions lasting "up to 20 years," while Tehran has argued for "five years." According to the report, officials familiar with the process believe a 12- to 15-year compromise remains possible.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the complexity of the situation, saying, "We don't have to have the actual agreement written in one day." He further stated that any breakthrough must be "very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on."