Trump, Modi meet: Who gained more, US or India?

In a high-profile diplomatic meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump held bilateral talks, aiming to smooth out the strains that had emerged under the previous Biden administration. While the camaraderie between the two leaders was evident, the discussions left India with mixed gains.

The Federal's Managing Editor K S Dakshina Murthy dissects the high-stakes Trump-Modi meeting. From trade relations and defence pacts to immigration – what’s the real outcome of this visit, and what lies ahead for US-India relations?

From defense deals to trade imbalances, the meeting had major takeaways. But the timing of the press briefing, before the bilateral talks, raised eyebrows. Was this an attempt to keep controversial decisions under wraps?

Also read: Modi coming home hugged and happy, but Trump deal will need some work

Key takeaways from meeting

Among the major outcomes, the US agreed to repatriate 26/11 Mumbai terror accused Tahawwur Rana to India. Trump also signalled that India would have more autonomy in dealing with Bangladesh. However, on trade issues, India found no relief from US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

Trump made it clear that India must reduce its trade surplus with the US, pushing for large-scale military hardware purchases, including the F-35 stealth fighter. The target? Doubling trade to $500 billion by 2030.

Also read: Trump's tariffs and India: An explainer

Tariffs, trade, and technology transfer

Trump’s "America First" approach was in full display. The US has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, which will hit India’s exports. India, in turn, has been urged to lower its trade deficit by buying more US goods, particularly defense equipment.

The sale of F-35 jets to India is a strategic move, but it comes with strings attached. Unlike Russia, which has been more willing to share military technology, the US is unlikely to transfer key F-35 tech. If India goes ahead with the purchase, it risks long-term dependence on American spare parts and maintenance.

The Adani controversy and US business interests

A significant but less publicised aspect of the meeting was Trump’s decision to lift bribery-related charges against Indian industrialist Gautam Adani. Prior to Modi’s visit, Trump signed an executive order pausing enforcement of US laws that penalise bribery in international business deals. This move follows accusations by the previous Biden administration that Adani was involved in a $265 million bribery case related to solar power contracts.

While Modi stated that world leaders do not discuss private individuals, the timing of this decision suggests otherwise.

Also read: India-US civil nuclear deal: PM Modi, President Trump agree to move forward

Nuclear liability reforms – paving way for US reactors?

Another key development was India’s decision to amend its Atomic Energy Act and the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act. This change reduces financial liabilities for US companies setting up nuclear reactors in India.

For years, the US had pushed for changes to these laws, citing concerns about accountability – especially in the wake of the 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy, where US-based Union Carbide escaped major penalties. Modi’s amendment could now open doors for US nuclear firms in India.

H-1B visas and immigration – no relief for Indians

Despite warm gestures, Trump remained firm on H-1B visa restrictions. The Indian IT sector, which heavily relies on US work visas, received no concessions. Trump’s voter base has long opposed foreign tech workers, and this stance remains unchanged.

Indian immigrants also found no relief from stringent deportation policies. Despite previous requests from India, illegal Indian immigrants in the US continue to face detainment and deportation.

Geopolitical tensions: China, Russia, and Khalistan

Trump offered to mediate between India and China on border tensions, but India remains cautious about accepting such offers.

Another lingering issue is the Biden administration’s past allegations that India was involved in an assassination plot targetting Khalistani separatist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US. Trump’s stance on this remains unclear.

Similarly, Canada’s accusations against India regarding the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar remain a concern. Trump’s administration might take a different view from Biden’s, but it remains to be seen how this plays out.

Also read: LIVE Modi-Trump meeting | India not neutral, it's on side of peace: PM on Russia-Ukraine conflict

Final take: Who gained more?

The four-hour Modi-Trump meeting had its share of wins and losses. While India secured Rana’s extradition and progress on Bangladesh, it received no relief on tariffs or visa restrictions. The nuclear liability amendment could boost US business, but India’s trade deficit will widen due to increased military purchases.

For Trump, the equation remains clear: Business first, politics second, and friendship last. Whether India truly benefits from this new phase in US-India relations will become evident in the months ahead.

Both leaders are smiling for now. But is this the start of a stronger partnership or just another transactional deal?

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