What's driving Nepal's youth-led uprising and why India must tread cautiously?

In this Capital Beat episode, panellists Subir Bhaumik and Sanjay Kapoor examined the unfolding political crisis in Nepal after Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned following protests against a social media ban and alleged corruption turned deadly.

The panel discussion focussed on the massive scale of street mobilisation, attacks on political leaders’ residences, and the implications for Nepal’s neighbours.

Protests turn deadly; curfew defied

Protesters gathered across Kathmandu and other cities after the government’s social media ban, with demonstrators also raising anti-corruption demands. Crowds reportedly defied curfew orders and targeted offices and homes of prominent politicians.

Also read: Nepal protests: KP Sharma Oli resigns as Prime Minister amid raging violence

The unrest left 19 people dead and more than 300 injured, and Nepal’s civil aviation authority ordered the closure of Kathmandu’s international airport, disrupting flights to and from the capital.

Eventually, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli submitted his resignation after three cabinet ministers quit in protest over the action taken against the young protestor. The demonstrators intensified actions in government and party precincts, including at the office of the Nepali Congress.

New template

Subir Bhaumik described the agitation as being coordinated by youth-driven networks rather than established parties.

“It’s not an established political party or organisation. It’s something very new… ‘Hami Nepal’ has been leading the protest,” he said, noting the group’s calls for students to assemble near Parliament.

He outlined how organisers used distinctive tactics to shape public sentiment. “Students, especially those from schools, were asked to come in school uniforms with school bags, so that if something happens to them there is a massive emotional backlash,” Bhaumik pointed out.

Bhaumik drew parallels with recent movements in the region and beyond. “This looks like a regime-change operation using non-political actors… The template is the 2013 (Euromaidan) operation— with apparently non-political players and extensive use of social media to ensure mobilisation and mass protest,” he said.

Political class under direct fire

Targets extended across party lines as residences linked to senior political leaders came under attack. Bhaumik noted that homes associated with Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ also was subjected to vandalism.

Also read: Who Is Balendra Shah? Kathmandu Mayor Backed by Gen Z Protesters in Nepal

“All three major political parties of Nepal… their top leaders, they have been attacked,” Bhaumik said, arguing that this broadened target set sought to sideline the entire established political class.

He underscored how quickly events overtook the state’s response. “In one and a half days of agitation, a government has fallen…There is definitely a bigger hand and there is a pattern,” he observed.

Has Oli fled Nepal?

Protests initially centred on the social media ban but widened as police action intensified.

“It started off with the agitation against the social ban, and then when the firing happens… a lot of people get killed; same like Bangladesh,” Bhaumik stated.

He said the demand escalated beyond ministerial resignations. “Demonstrators had demanded Oli’s resignation, saying that (the home minister’s) exit was not sufficient,” he added, referring to momentum that grew even as the government called for an all-party dialogue.

Bhaumik commented on reports of Oli’s movements as unrest spread.

“It is a Nepal Army helicopter… he’s definitely got into that helicopter,” he said, while clarifying that he had “no real evidence” about any plan to leave the country and would not rely on social media claims.

Economic distress

Sanjay Kapoor flagged the depth of public frustration and the role of digital networks in this agitation.

“There has been a great amount of turmoil within the country… they are very sharp on social media. That is how they connect to their global community,” he said.

He linked the protests to economic distress and high out-migration. “Almost 9 lakhs per year (are leaving). 771,000 have signed up for work visas and 200,000 to study abroad,” Kapoor noted, framing the movement as a convergence of organisation and accumulated anger.

On the demographic character of the protests, Kapoor said, “They made it a point that nobody above 26 years of age is going to participate,” highlighting the generational profile of the mobilisation.

Broader geopolitical script?

Kapoor framed Nepal’s political churn within the broader context of regional sensitivities.

“You have China on one hand… and you also have India. India has a lot of interest,” he said, adding that alignments have shifted over time.

He observed that Nepal’s leadership has tried different external tacks. “In the early days he was very pro-India but now he’s been seen to be anti-India,” Kapoor said of Oli’s recent stance, while cautioning that the immediate environment remains fluid.

Addressing online speculation about broader geopolitical scripts, Kapoor said the elements resemble familiar playbooks.

“The script which is being played out is very similar to what the Americans are used to doing… and it looks like that,” he said, while differentiating present circumstances from earlier US approaches.

Disruptions to travel, trade

With Kathmandu airport shut, airlines announced the suspension of their flights.

Kapoor pointed to the direct fallout for Indian travellers and businesses. “It is bound to have implications on India because there are a lot of Indians who work there… too much of travel, too much of business that transacts between the two countries,” he said.

He added that Nepal’s ties with India are structurally important. “It’s a landlocked country. The entire trade takes place through (Indian) ports… India is very critical for Nepal,” Kapoor said, noting long-standing economic and social linkages.

Also read: Nepal PM KP Sharma Oli resigns amid violent anti-government protests

On cross-border movement during crises, Kapoor stated a general principle without prescribing restrictions. “I think there should be a free movement of people in some ways… but governments have become strict about the movement,” he said.

India’s leverage, limits

Kapoor assessed New Delhi’s options carefully.

“We have a leverage… We should be able to use that, but it has to be done very gently without choosing the wrong side,” he said, urging sensitivity to public sentiment within Nepal.

He stressed that any Indian engagement must avoid exacerbating fault lines. “They should read the straws in the wind and go with the people’s interest,” Kapoor said, calling for calibrated steps rather than overt alignment.

Bhaumik warned of a potential challenge for India if an interim structure excludes established parties. “If this crisis leads to the formation of some interim government where the established political parties are not represented, India will have a problem because India has dealt with the major political parties there so far,” he said.

Catching up with new realities

Bhaumik argued that access to emergent leaders will shape external influence. “It will depend very much on which country has direct access to the people who have led this movement,” he noted, contrasting this with India’s historical ties to traditional parties.

He cautioned that New Delhi might face a knowledge gap. “I am fairly sure that our people… are not really aware of the people who have led this agitation,” he said, describing a “major problem catching up” with new realities.

Kapoor pointed to a figure drawing youth support within Kathmandu’s civic space. “The person who has to be watched is the mayor of Kathmandu, Balen… He’s the only stabilising force,” Kapoor said, referencing Balendra Shah’s visibility amid the turmoil.

Fluid and volatile situation

Kapoor described the governance vacuum after mass resignations. “There is no government now… The entire government has collapsed,” he said, emphasising institutional drift as security and administrative capacities are tested.

He reiterated that economic distress remains central to public discontent. “The economy is primarily the reason why people want to do something about it,” Kapoor said, connecting household anxieties to the protests’ persistence.

As protests continue despite curfew orders and with the social media ban now lifted, on-ground tensions remain high. Residences and offices associated with leading politicians were attacked, including in the prime minister’s neighbourhood and across Kathmandu.

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