What we know about Venezuela’s oil, which Trump wants to ‘fix’ and sell

Hours after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump made it clear that Venezuela’s vast oil wealth is central to Washington’s plans for the country.

Speaking to Fox News, Trump said the United States would be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil industry and promised to send in America’s largest oil companies, pledging billions of dollars in investment to revive production.

Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but decades of mismanagement, underinvestment, sanctions and political instability have left output a fraction of its historical peak. Energy analysts say that even with US backing, any meaningful recovery in production will take years — not months.

What did Trump say?

Trump framed US involvement in Venezuela’s oil sector as both an economic and strategic priority following Maduro’s capture.

“We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we’re going to be very much involved,” Trump said, adding that American firms would help “fix” Venezuela’s “badly broken” energy infrastructure and sell “large amounts” of oil to other countries.

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He indicated that major US oil companies would be encouraged to enter Venezuela and invest heavily to raise production, even as sanctions on Venezuelan oil remain formally in place. Trump has also said Washington would oversee a temporary transition in Venezuela, signalling direct US influence over the country’s political and economic direction.

The comments came amid broader messaging from the Trump administration asserting American dominance in the Western Hemisphere and linking Venezuela’s oil potential to US energy security.

What we know about oil reserves in Venezuela

According to a report published in Reuters, Venezuela possesses an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves — about 17 per cent of the global total — making it the world’s largest holder of oil reserves. Its reserves exceed Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion barrels and are more than six times those of the United States.

Most of this oil is located in the Orinoco Belt, a vast region in north-eastern Venezuela, and consists largely of heavy crude that is more expensive to extract. However, the US has maintained that the process is technically viable with sustained investment and the right infrastructure.

Despite this abundance, Venezuela’s oil output has collapsed. The decline is attributed to years of underinvestment and the imposition of sweeping US sanctions.

Sanctions imposed during Trump’s earlier presidency and tightened again in December have further constrained exports, pushing Venezuela to rely heavily on China and Cuba as buyers.

Chevron is currently the only US oil major operating in Venezuela, accounting for about 25 per cent of the country’s oil production. Other American giants such as Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips exited after Hugo Chavez nationalised foreign oil assets beginning in 2006, which further disrupted the investments leading to the country's decline in oil production, despite its abundant resource.

Will it be possible for Trump to get instant output?

Energy experts are sceptical that Trump’s plans can deliver quick gains. Analysts say Venezuela’s oil sector faces deep structural problems, from deteriorated infrastructure and security risks to legal uncertainty and sanctions, that cannot be resolved rapidly.

Even if US oil majors invest billions, Venezuela is unlikely to see a meaningful boost in crude output for years, according to analysts in the Reuters report. Any companies returning would need assurances on payment, security, and the lifting of sanctions, along with legal reforms allowing greater foreign ownership.

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Thomas O’Donnell, an energy and geopolitical strategist, told Reuters that under ideal conditions, Venezuela could see a production ramp-up in five to seven years. But that would depend on a peaceful political transition and sustained investment, outcomes far from assured.

“There’s a lot that could go wrong,” O’Donnell told the news agency, pointing to the risk of armed resistance and long-term instability if the transition is seen as US-dominated.

While heavy Venezuelan crude is well suited for US Gulf Coast refineries and could eventually benefit American refiners, analysts say the immediate impact on global oil markets and US fuel prices will be minimal.

Much of Venezuela’s current output continues to flow to China and Cuba, and restarting large-scale exports to the US would require lifting or restructuring existing sanctions.