What's so special about China-Pakistan relationship?

Over the past year, India and China have shown signs of easing tensions, with New Delhi seeking closer engagement even as Beijing signals reciprocity. But China’s deep strategic embrace of Pakistan remains the biggest obstacle in this equation.

What does this mean for India’s security and diplomacy? The Federal's Consulting Editor KS Dakshina Murthy unpacks the history, economics, and future of China-Pakistan relations and their implications for India.

What are the strategic implications of Pakistan’s relationship with China, and how did it come about?

The China-Pakistan relationship may look set in stone today, but it wasn’t always this way. In the early years after Independence, Pakistan leaned heavily towards Western powers, while China was aligned with the Soviet bloc. At one point, under then President Ayub Khan, Pakistan even explored the possibility of a joint front with India against China.

The turning point came after the India-China war of 1962. Disillusioned with Western support, Pakistan gravitated towards Beijing. In 1963, Pakistan ceded disputed territory in Kashmir’s Karakoram region to China, resolving its border issue with Beijing. This was the game changer that brought them closer. When the 1965 India-Pakistan war broke out, China backed Pakistan, cementing the partnership further.

How have their economic ties evolved, especially with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been a flagship project, and Pakistan has embraced it wholeheartedly. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) gives Beijing direct access to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar port and reduces its dependence on the crowded Strait of Malacca, which is closely watched by India and the US.

Chinese exports to Pakistan are worth around $15 billion annually, while Pakistan exports about $3.5 billion, mainly cotton. The relationship is asymmetrical, but Pakistan is willing to align its economy with Beijing’s vision. For China, CPEC is strategically vital; for Pakistan, China has become an economic lifeline.

What went wrong in India-China ties?

Initially, India and China shared friendly relations, with India being among the first to recognise the new Chinese government in 1950. But the Tibet issue in 1959, when the Dalai Lama fled to India, marked the first rupture. Disputes over the McMahon Line and territory escalated, culminating in the 1962 war, which left a deep scar.

For 16 years after the war, ties were frozen. Diplomatic engagement resumed in 1978, but distrust has lingered. While trade has grown, Beijing continues to take positions against India, including on Kashmir. So, relations have always been a mix of cooperation and conflict.

How has China positioned itself during India-Pakistan conflicts?

In 1965, China fully backed Pakistan, even using its clout at the UN Security Council against India. After the war, it provided massive military aid to Islamabad. In 1971, during the Bangladesh Liberation War, China offered logistical support to Pakistan and allowed it to use its airspace, though it stopped short of opening a new front.

By contrast, during the 1999 Kargil conflict, China stayed neutral, urging both sides to resolve issues peacefully. But in Operation Sindhu, China played a much deeper role, supplying Pakistan with logistics, advanced equipment, and intelligence.

Reports even suggest Chinese personnel handled key communication systems. With 80% of Pakistan’s arsenal being Chinese, the military bond is now inseparable.

Can China ever set aside Pakistan to improve ties with India?

History suggests that is unlikely. At best, China may remain neutral in a crisis between India and Pakistan, but abandoning Islamabad is almost ruled out.

China values regional stability and would prefer peace in South Asia. For India, the logical path is to deepen economic interdependence with China. Stronger stakes in the bilateral relationship could discourage Beijing from siding against India in future conflicts. But Pakistan will remain China’s “iron brother,” and that limits how far New Delhi can trust Beijing.

The content above has been transcribed from video using a fine-tuned AI model. To ensure accuracy, quality, and editorial integrity, we employ a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) process. While AI assists in creating the initial draft, our experienced editorial team carefully reviews, edits, and refines the content before publication. At The Federal, we combine the efficiency of AI with the expertise of human editors to deliver reliable and insightful journalism.