Zohran Mamdani, Mira Nair’s son, leads progressive push in New York mayor race

November 4 marks America's first major election day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. His leadership and policies have dominated the debate in almost every race — even though the Republican has been absent from the campaign trail.

Besides the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, attention is also on the New York mayoral race, where Zohran Kwame Mamdani, who has roots in India, is contesting against former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

Tough fights in Virginia and New Jersey

The biggest contests are in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states electing governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in each have a history of electing Republicans to statewide office. Republican candidates have closely aligned themselves with the President, betting that his big win last year could still pave the way to success this time, even though the party occupying the White House typically has suffered in off-year elections.

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Strong Democratic showings, meanwhile, could provide the party a pathway back to national relevance, even if its top candidates have taken very different approaches, from adhering to a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve voters' lives.

In New York City, Mamdani, the self-described democratic socialist who has already been a target of Trump's criticism, could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the state's House map, as Democrats look to counter a push by Trump to reshape the balance of congressional power.

A referendum on Trump

The president did not set foot in either Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but both contests will likely be viewed as a referendum on Trump's job so far.

Over the last year, his tariffs rocked the global economy, his “big, beautiful budget” bill threatened rural hospitals and health insurance coverage for millions, he enacted massive cuts to the federal workforce, and he sent the National Guard to multiple American cities.

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Earle-Sears is a fierce defender of Trump and his policies, much like Ciattarelli in New Jersey. A good night for the Republicans would almost certainly be viewed as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” policies. A bad night would give Democrats a strong, though perhaps fleeting, start heading into midterms that are still a year away.

A new Democratic playbook?

November 4 offered a test of two very different Democratic philosophies on display from candidates: toeing a moderate line or fully embracing far-left progressivism. But it also presented a scenario where both, or neither, could be successful, making drawing conclusions going forward more difficult.

The party's candidates for governor, New Jersey Representative Mikie Sherrill and former Representative Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some of the Democratic Party's far-left policies.

A growing collection of Democratic leaders believes the moderate approach holds the key to the party's revival after the Republicans won the White House and both congressional chambers last year. Tuesday could be a key indicator of whether they're right.

Both Sherrill and Spanberger have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance against Trump's attack on American institutions. Spanberger rarely even mentions Trump's name on the campaign trail. Both also have resumes that might appeal to the middle.

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Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years abroad working undercover. They have played up their public safety backgrounds as a direct response to the GOP's attack that Democrats are soft on crime.

Above all, the Democrats have focused on rising costs such as groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.

A new star for Democrats in New York

That approach is far different from New York City's mayoral race, where progressives are energised by Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim state legislator who identifies as a democratic socialist and backs radical changes to address economic inequality.

His bold agenda and inspirational approach attracted thousands of volunteers in New York and brought the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign on his behalf. It has also spooked some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani's past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.

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Mamdani has been locked in a caustic race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent candidate after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is looking for a huge upset.

And while many progressives are thrilled, some Republicans in Washington are also quietly rooting for a Mamdani victory. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left politics.

Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday evening: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You must vote for him and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

That's after Trump derided Mamdani nearly every day. Republican operatives are also giddy about the opportunity to use him to attack many more Democrats closer to next year's midterm elections — just as they have done with progressive Democrats such as House “squad” members like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar.

The shutdown effect

Election Day comes in the midst of a federal government shutdown that has already spanned more than a month. Both parties in Congress blame each other, and there is no end in sight.

Will it matter? Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal workers, many of whom have been furloughed or are being forced to work without pay. New Jersey has nearly 21,000 federal employees, according to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, out of a total of more than 2 million such government employees nationwide.

Either number is more than enough to swing a close election. At the same time, millions of people may be losing critical food assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, offering voters another urgent reason to express their displeasure.

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Polling shows that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, are getting slightly more blame than Democrats, though there is plenty of frustration aimed at both sides.

Test for the Trump realignment

While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump's 16-point loss in 2020 shrank to less than 6 points in 2024.

Those shifts were fuelled by Trump's increasing popularity among traditional Democratic loyalists: Labour union members, Black men, Hispanic voters and younger people. Democrats are particularly vulnerable in New Jersey, which has among the largest percentages of labour union households in the nation.

If those pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.

(With agency inputs)