2027 Census could lead to spike in caste-based demands, says ex-IAS officer

With the Centre confirming that the 2027 Census will include caste enumeration for the first time since 1931, new political and policy implications are emerging. In this in-depth conversation with The Federal, former IAS officer R Rangarajan explains why caste data matters, how it could reshape welfare and reservations, and what it means for the looming delimitation exercise.

What are the key policy goals behind including caste enumeration in the 2027 census? Can this help address socio-economic inequality?

Yes. As recently announced, the 2027 census will include caste enumeration—something last conducted in 1931. After Independence, we only collected data on Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). As per the 2011 census, SCs make up 16 per cent and STs 8.5 per cent of the population. But there is no precise data for Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The Mandal Commission had estimated OBCs at 52 per cent, but that was not based on a census.

Given India's complex social structure, do you anticipate logistical or operational challenges with this caste census?

Logistically, I don’t see a big problem. The same enumerators will conduct it, and it’s going to be fully digital this time. The real issue is societal. Once the caste data is available, it could trigger competitive demands for social justice. Groups will say, “We are 12 per cent of the population but get only X per cent reservation.” With limited opportunities, caste-based demands may spike.

Opposition parties allege the timing is politically motivated, suggesting the ruling party aims to use caste data ahead of the 2029 elections. What’s your view?

It’s possible. I’ve read that caste-based data may only be released after three years—so potentially post-2029 elections. Politically, it might benefit the ruling party to delay the release, avoiding difficult questions.

But there’s a bigger concern: the census has a reference date of March 1, 2027, making it the first census after 2026. That triggers the delimitation process, postponed since the 1971 census. Earlier, the number of Lok Sabha seats was frozen to incentivise population control. Southern states and smaller northern states like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and the Northeast will be hit hard if seats are reallocated purely by population.

What would delimitation based on population look like for southern versus northern states?

It’s stark. For instance, Uttar Pradesh could jump from 80 to 143 seats, Bihar from 40 to 79, Rajasthan from 25 to 50, and Madhya Pradesh to around 54–55. Meanwhile, Kerala would remain at 20, and Tamil Nadu might go from 39 to just 49–51. Karnataka may gain four to eight seats.

Southern leaders fear this will dilute their voice in Parliament. This isn’t just a South vs North issue—it affects all states that successfully controlled population growth.

Why hasn’t the government clarified its delimitation or caste census plan in detail? Southern leaders say this raises suspicion.

True. There’s merit in those concerns from both constitutional and administrative angles. But we must remember this is not just a South vs North issue. It affects all states that performed well on population control metrics.

In my opinion, one way to resolve this is to emulate the US model, where the number of seats in the House of Representatives has been fixed at 435 since 1921. While the US population quadrupled, representation stayed the same. If we want more representation, increase the MLA seats, not the MPs.

Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin has voiced concern that the delay in census and delimitation will weaken the state’s voice. Is this concern valid?

Yes, it is. Tamil Nadu’s political parties haven’t been part of the ruling coalition at the Centre for a decade. The state already has fewer than 30 per cent of total Lok Sabha seats. If delimitation is based purely on population, this could drop even further.

If the new Lok Sabha size goes up to 848 seats, the South’s share might fall to 22–23 per cent. That would mean reduced political influence. It’s a very real concern.

Can the caste census help reform the reservation system and improve targeting of education, jobs, and healthcare?

Absolutely. The Rohini Commission, though not yet public, reportedly recommended sub-categorisation within OBCs. Many underprivileged groups haven’t benefited much so far. With accurate data, we can identify which sub-castes are truly underrepresented in education or jobs.

For instance, in Tamil Nadu, there are hundreds of backward castes, like the Muthurayar community, who may not have had fair access to opportunities. This data can help refine the MBC/OBC quotas to better reach them.

But won’t dominant castes within OBCs use this data to consolidate more power?

That’s a risk. In the North, groups like Yadavs, in the South, Thevars, and in the West, Kshatriya Rajputs are already dominant. If census data shows their population strength, they might demand a greater share—perhaps beyond what’s justified.

We’re a nation of limited opportunities. Even dominant groups may say, “We are 15 per cent but hold only 3 per cent of jobs.” For example, the 10.5 per cent internal MBC quota for Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu was struck down in court. Yet, they might cite census data to justify it again. So yes, political challenges will emerge.

There’s talk that the Centre may use the census to push for ‘One Nation, One Election’. Do you see a link?

I’m very skeptical. Implementing One Nation, One Election needs constitutional amendments and ratification by over 50 per cent of states—it affects the federal setup. The census may affect delimitation, but not election scheduling.

To synchronise elections, Parliament would need to pass a separate bill. While the government may want it, I don’t think it will move forward anytime soon.

The opposition says the Centre might withhold caste data till the 2029 elections. How can trust and transparency be ensured?

There’s no data yet to withhold. First, the census needs to happen in 2027. After that, data analysis and publication can take up to a year. We need to trust the process and insist that it remains transparent and timely.

Do you think the Women’s Reservation Bill will take effect in the 2029 general elections?

I’m hopeful. If the census is conducted in March 2027 as planned, and since it’s digital, results can be compiled by year-end. Then we’ll have all of 2028 to carry out delimitation and identify the one-third women-reserved seats. Implementation by 2029 is possible.

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