Ahmedabad AI plane crash: Survival chances nearly zero, says expert

In the aftermath of the Air India AI171 crash shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, The Federal speaks to retired Air Marshal M Matheswaran to understand what a catastrophic air crash means, how emergency responses are triggered, and what India’s aviation system must now confront.

How do you assess the emergency response by ATC and rescue teams following today’s crash?

This is a catastrophic accident—meaning there was almost no time for anyone to react and save anything. That tells us the situation was likely beyond the pilot’s control. Both engines may have failed, leaving the aircraft powerless just after takeoff.

Once the crew alerted Air Traffic Control (ATC) with a Mayday call, rescue teams would’ve responded immediately. These teams are trained to react in seconds. If the aircraft went down in a built-up area, there may be additional casualties on the ground. And since it crashed shortly after takeoff, it had full fuel. So, survival chances are nearly zero. It’s a tragic loss of lives.

What are the standard protocols for investigating a Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash like this?

Civil aviation authorities like the Ministry of Civil Aviation and the DGCA have a set protocol. They immediately constitute a Board of Inquiry and rush to the crash site to recover the black boxes.

These black boxes—resilient to fire and high-impact crashes—record everything from engine start to shutdown. The data is critical for analysis.

Modern aircraft also have Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) that transmit live flight data to maintenance teams. This data, along with the black box recordings, will be vital to understanding the cause.

Given that the crash happened in a residential area, are our airport safety zones strong enough?

India’s rapid urban expansion poses a major safety risk. Real estate drives a big part of our economy, but that shouldn't override safety. There are clear directives on keeping safety zones clear around airports—but enforcing them remains a challenge.

Look at Pune or Mumbai—entire townships have grown around airfields. It’s time we re-evaluate these zones. One accident is too many.

What can we learn from this incident based on the visuals and reports?

In a catastrophic event like this, rapid response is key. The emergency teams seem to have done their job in trying to save anyone they could and moving them to hospitals.

But realistically, the survival rate was always going to be extremely low given the full fuel load and the altitude. The focus now must shift to learning why it happened and preventing another.

Aviation is complex—modern planes are digital, monitored continuously, and designed to alert ground and cockpit teams in case of a fault. Yet, as this case shows, sometimes things still fail catastrophically.

What kind of technical failure could have triggered this?

From the video footage, it appears the aircraft lost power. A simultaneous failure of both engines is extremely rare but, if it happened, the situation becomes unrecoverable.

No aircraft can survive that just after takeoff. It’s absolutely catastrophic.

What are the safety features of a Boeing 787 and could they have helped?

The Boeing 787 is among the most modern aircraft. Its electronic systems are built to manage minor failures automatically. These systems even inform the pilot of what has happened and what to do.

But major emergencies need human intervention. Pilots are highly trained in simulators for this. They have seconds to make decisions. That’s why we call this a “catastrophic emergency”—no time to react.

Had this occurred during landing, perhaps the pilot could have glided in. But during takeoff, it’s almost impossible to save the plane.

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