Big shake-up ahead? How Modi plans to reset his third term

On June 9, 2024, upon returning to office for a third consecutive term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi constituted his Union Council of Ministers with two unmistakable messages.

First, Modi’s decision to retain Amit Shah, Rajnath Singh, Nirmala Sitharaman, S Jaishankar, and several others as cabinet ministers in-charge of the portfolios they held before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls signalled both continuity in administration and an unequivocal rejection of any suggestion that the BJP’s reduced mandate was, in part, a consequence of incompetent governance.

Second, unlike his previous two stints, Modi began his third term with a team that included nearly a dozen ministers drawn from BJP’s allies; an admission that handing out ministerial berths to allies was no longer an act of charity but of necessity as the BJP no longer commanded a majority of its own.

With the first major reshuffle in the Modi 3.0 government now imminent, sources in the BJP and its NDA coalition say the upcoming exercise could lay down the “political vision and narrative” that will shape the Centre’s governance for the remainder of Modi’s third term and, more importantly, the BJP’s electoral outreach for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls and the series of assembly elections due before that. Whether it also apportions accountability for the Centre’s abysmal record on reining in unemployment, soaring fuel prices, and frequent examination paper leaks remains to be seen.

Will Nirmala Sitharaman lose Finance?

With many of the government’s failures tied directly or indirectly to the consistently sloppy handling of the economy, speculation is rife that the reshuffle, expected any day before the commencement of Parliament’s monsoon session around mid-July, could finally see finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s exit.

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Sources, however, assert that if at all Sitharaman is divested of the finance portfolio, it will not mean her exit from the Union Cabinet as that is bound to be interpreted as an admission of failure and incompetence; a charge Modi has assiduously evaded for the past 12 years. Instead, sources say Sitharaman could possibly replace Dharmendra Pradhan as Education Minister, with the BJP spin doctors hailing her new assignment as a “new challenge” instead of a downgrade for the country’s longest continuously serving finance minister.

Dharmendra Pradhan’s fate

If this speculation comes true, what happens to Pradhan would be keenly watched. While some in the party believe Pradhan may merely be shifted to another ministry, others suggest he could be among severalincumbent ministers who would be drafted in for organisational work.

An unceremonious exit from the Union Cabinet for Pradhan may seem like the Prime Minister bowing to the growing clamour for the education minister’s ouster, but BJP insiders say the party could pivot such a move as a sign of a government alive to sentiments of the youth. It would also be a pre-emptive strike against the Opposition’s plan to disrupt Parliament proceedings or launch a sustained public campaign on the exam paper leak issue.

Sitharaman’s possible replacement

Sources said Modi is also expected to continue his practice of roping in former bureaucratsas ministers to helm key departments. In this context, the name of Modi’s principal secretary and former RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has been doing the rounds as Sitharaman’s possible successor in the finance ministry.

Also Read: Congress to launch nationwide campaign over NEET leak, seeks Pradhan's resignation

Interestingly, the reshuffle, BJP insiders say, could see a significant downsizing in the ministerial duties of at least two lateral entrants from the bureaucracy to Modi’s cabinet. While Ashwini Vaishnaw, who currently holds charge of the ministries of railways, electronics & information technology, and information & broadcasting, is set to be divested of a major ministry, sources said Union petroleum minister Hardeep Puri could either be shunted out altogether or be assigned to an “insignificant ministry”.

RSS nominees could find a place

With Modi’s current term also seeing a sustained effort to keep the RSS in good humour, it is learnt that the reshuffle will also include several nominees of the BJP’s ideological mother ship. Among those that the RSS is keen to see inducted into the Union council of ministers are a former chief of the BJP’s Madhya Pradesh unit, a recently elected Rajya Sabha MP from Maharashtra, and a senior Lok Sabha MP from Bihar.

With BJP national president Nitin Nabin already in the process of finalising an expansive organisational rejig of the party at the national and state levels, sources said “some cabinet ministers and a few ministers of state, particularly from states where elections are due between now and 2029” could be assigned responsibilities within the party. Similarly, “some leaders from such states who have served in the party for a long time could be given ministerial roles”, said sources.

Also Read: Modi 3.0 Cabinet sworn in: Here’s the full list of ministers

For instance, Union minister of state for railways Ravneet Bittu, who was denied an extension of his Rajya Sabha term earlier this month, is expected to be sent off to Punjab to aid the party’s poll campaign for next year while Tarun Chugh, senior leader from the state who has finally been rewarded with a Rajya Sabha term, could be inducted into the Union cabinet.

Turncoats

What is likely to be of particular interest to many political observers is the fate of a litany of MPs who have, in the past three months, defected from the Opposition’s Aam Aadmi Party, the Trinamool Congress, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) to the NDA fold. It is learnt that the RSS and a section of BJP leaders are of the view that these turncoats should not be included in the council of ministers just yet, but Modi and Shah are keen to make some exceptions due to “electoral considerations”.

The BJP’s lack of leaders from Punjab could help “at least one” of the seven AAP MPs who defected to the BJP in the Rajya Sabha in April make the cut as a junior minister in Modi’s council. However, the same luck may not strike the 20 Trinamool MPs who, earlier this month, said that they had merged with the Tripura-based Nationalist Citizens Party of India and were now aligned with the NDA. The RSS and a section of the BJP’s Bengal unit are learnt to be of the firm view that a distance must be maintained from these MPs even if they have switched political allegiance, as the public anger that decimated the Trinamool and brought the BJP to power in Bengal in May was “as much against Mamata Banerjee’s misrule as against the corruption of several of these 20 MPs”.

Also Read: Year 1 of Modi 3.0: PM calls the shots as powerful allies remain non-assertive

Likewise, while Maharashtra deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena wants to be rewarded with enhanced representation in Team Modi for poaching six of nine Lok Sabha MPs from Uddhav Thackeray’s SS-UBT, sources said “any ministerial berth that may be offered to them will be for MPs who had won in 2024 as Shinde Sena candidates”. Since Shinde’s party had been denied a cabinet berth in June 2024, sources said Eknath Shinde’s son, Shrikant Shinde, could be inducted as cabinet minister while the party may also get one additional minister of state berth, aside from its existing one held by Prataprao Jadhav.

Among the allies, what will also be keenly observed is the role assigned to former Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar. The ailing Janata Dal (United) chief had relinquished the Bihar CM’s throne in April after making his Rajya Sabha debut. Sources said Modi is keen on inducting Kumar into the cabinet and that a portfolio vacated by Vaishnaw could be given to the JD (U) chief.

Political messaging

In terms of political messaging, the reshuffle is expected to see a large infusion of MPs representing three crucial voting blocs – youth, backward castes, and women. While over a dozen ministers of state could be replaced with their roles being assigned to younger MPs, possibly some even in their first term, the exercise will also see Modi increasing the share of women in the council of ministers to align with his push for early rollout of women’s reservation in the Lok Sabha.

With backward castes being the foundation for any electoral victory in Uttar Pradesh, the Prime Minister is expected to replicate his July 2021 reshuffle template once more to induct MPs from diverse backward caste groups in an effort to retain the party’s support base among them in the state bound for polls early next year.