COVID deaths under-reported: Gujarat tops; Kerala accurate, says govt data

In a revealing development buried under the noise of Operation Sindoor - India’s military action against Pakistan following the Pahalham terror attack - the Union government quietly released the Vital Statistics of India 2021 report based on Civil Registration System (CRS) data.

The report contains a belated but explosive admission: India saw nearly 20 lakh more deaths in 2021 than what was officially reported during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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While television screens were dominated by images of artillery fire and strategic responses across the border, this data release went almost entirely unnoticed. Yet, the implications are damning. It confirms what public health experts and investigative journalists had long suspected: a large-scale suppression of COVID mortality data by several Indian states - with Gujarat at the top of the list.

Gujarat: 33 times more deaths than reported

According to the CRS, Gujarat reported just 5,809 COVID deaths in 2021. But the actual number of excess deaths was a staggering 1,95,406 - a discrepancy of more than 33 times.

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The report further identifies Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Rajasthan as other states where death registration figures were drastically under-reported, indicating a deliberate effort to manipulate pandemic mortality statistics.

Kerala’s open and accurate reporting

In stark contrast, Kerala emerged as a model of relative transparency. The state consistently reported near-accurate death numbers, even at the cost of media scrutiny and political attacks during the pandemic years.

CPI(M) MP John Brittas, in a strongly worded Facebook post in Malayalam, flagged the timing of the report’s release and the gravity of the data. Translated into English, he wrote:

"I remember how, in those days, we faced repeated questions in national TV debates: Why are Kerala's COVID numbers so high? Our answer was simple: our testing, treatment, and data reporting are clean. Why blame Kerala for being honest when others are not?” said Brittas.

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Kerala’s open and accurate reporting had often made it the target of national media criticism during the second and third waves of the pandemic. The state’s high reported caseloads were often cited as signs of mismanagement. In reality, Kerala was one of the few states testing widely, treating transparently, and recording deaths faithfully - an approach that has now been vindicated.

Human cost of image management

The CRS report not only points to technical failures in India’s pandemic response but reveals a moral failure too: the dead were hidden to serve the living’s politics. In states like Gujarat, the discrepancy between reported and actual deaths is so vast that it raises questions about governance, data integrity, and the human cost of image management.

Also Read: 12 states conducting more COVID tests than national average: Govt

Back in 2021, visuals of bodies floating in the Ganga made global headlines. But those deaths were never properly accounted for in many states’ official numbers. Now, the CRS data reaffirms that many such deaths were simply brushed aside, denied the dignity of acknowledgment.

India’s death toll – almost 50 lakhs

“The revelation that the central government chose to release this report at a time of heightened nationalist fervour and cross-border conflict suggests a strategy: let the numbers slip out unnoticed. But the facts speak louder than headlines. Kerala’s approach may not have been perfect. But it treated its people with dignity and honesty. And in the final reckoning, that is no small thing” a senior Kerala health department official told The Federal.

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India’s real COVID death toll was not the 4.8 lakh officially reported, but likely closer to 50 lakh - a figure consistent with World Health Organisation estimates from 2022, which the Indian government had previously rejected.