Dhankhar effect: NDA, INDIA back to drawing board as EC begins preps for VP polls

Less than 48 hours after Jagdeep Dhankhar’s surprise late Monday (July 21) resignation as Vice President of India, the Election Commission (EC) has set in motion the process of electing his successor. Though it may be some time before the EC announces the schedule for the vice presidential election, the unprecedented situation precipitated by Dhankhar has created a new set of challenges for the ruling BJP-led NDA coalition and the Opposition’s INDIA bloc.

Also read: Opposition unites to challenge Modi govt on Dhankhar's exit; can it pull it off?

Sources on both sides of the political divide confirmed to The Federal that both alliances would field their own nominee for the election and that consultations over prospective candidates could begin as early as next week amid the ongoing monsoon session of Parliament.

Discussions on possible candidates

On the ruling side, discussions on possible candidates are expected to begin officially soon after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns to Delhi from his visit to the UK and Maldives on July 26.

While the Centre is likely to prioritise the impending debate in Parliament on issues related to Operation Sindoor, scheduled for July 28 and 29, with sources in the government also confirming an intervention by Modi, discussions between the BJP’s top leadership and the RSS over Dhankhar’s successor are also expected to take off in the same week. This, sources said, would be followed by Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and some other senior BJP ministers reaching out to allies, particularly Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) and N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, to seek their views in the matter.

Also read: Jagdeep Dhankhar made unscheduled visit to Rashtrapati Bhavan before resignation

A senior minister also indicated to The Federal that though the BJP leadership would “ideally prefer to nominate someone from the party for the VP polls”, the possibility of Modi “accommodating a nominee from one of our allies is not entirely ruled out”. Another BJP minister, however, qualified this view saying, “the party will try to build consensus within the NDA on fielding someone from the BJP unless an ally stakes a serious claim for the post, which to me doesn’t look likely as of now; we will have to wait for the PM to return and the talks to formally begin for greater clarity”.

‘Apolitical’ nominee unlikely for NDA

Multiple BJP MPs The Federal spoke to also insisted that the possibility of the government looking for a nominee “from outside the political arena is extremely remote”, suggesting that the government may not tap an ‘apolitical’ candidate from spheres like the judiciary or the bureaucracy.

At least three senior BJP MPs also pointed out that the “present circumstances” around the VP election were “vastly different” from those that existed when Dhankhar or his predecessor M. Venkaiah Naidu was elected to office.

“During both those elections, the BJP’s position in Parliament could not be challenged by anyone because of the numbers we had compared to our rivals in the Lok Sabha and the Prime Minister’s political clout was also at its peak. We were at a position from which we could dictate to our allies who we wanted in office and the allies had no option but to accept. After 2024, while the Prime Minister still has an unparalleled political clout, the reduced strength of the BJP in the Lok Sabha will require him to be more considerate of the suggestions that come from our allies. I am certain that ultimately if the PM wants someone from the BJP to get the nomination, that will happen but he will ensure that the allies feel that their opinion in the matter carries a lot of weight,” said a senior BJP MP from Uttar Pradesh.

Also read: EC begins process for Vice President election

Another BJP MP, also from UP, pointed out that the fresh polls come at a time when Modi not only also has to “negotiate” with the RSS on the appointment of the new BJP president – the election for the post has been pending since January, ostensibly due to lack of consensus between the party leadership and the Sangh. Additionally, a rejig of the Union council of ministers and a number of new gubernatorial postings are also on the cards. “All these appointments will be taken into account while narrowing down on the VP candidate. Modi has to ensure that no one, be it the Sangh or our allies in the NDA, has a reason to complain”.

NDA and INDIA’s numbers

The high-stakes elections due in Bihar around October-November this year as well as polls to half a dozen state Assemblies scheduled in the first half of 2026 will also weigh in heavily on Modi’s mind as he goes about shortlisting hopefuls for the vice presidential polls.

Numerically, the BJP knows it may not win as grand a victory for its nominee as it did when Dhankhar defeated the Congress’ Opposition-backed Margaret Alva in the August 2022 election by a margin of 346 votes. Dhankhar had polled 528 of the 710 valid votes cast in the 2022 polls against Alva’s 182. The electoral college (MPs from the two Houses of Parliament) then comprised 780 MPs from the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha, of which 55 MPs had abstained while 15 votes were declared invalid.

Also read: Dhankhar's exit, first 'blood on carpet' moment for Modi regime? Capital Beat

The electoral college for the 2025 polls presently has 782 MPs against its full strength of 788 as there is one vacancy in the Lower House and five in the Upper House of Parliament. Of these, the NDA and the nominated MPs in the Rajya Sabha who are expected to vote for the Centre’s choice make up 421 MPs. The INDIA bloc, including Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, which had surprised everyone in 2022 by abstaining from the election instead of voting for the Opposition’s Alva, has 311 MPs.

While the NDA’s strength of 421 MPs in the electoral college is well above the half-way mark of 391 votes that a candidate would need to secure victory, it is also over 100 votes shy of what Dhankhar had secured in 2022. With the NDA’s thin majority of 30 votes in the electoral college, Modi can’t afford to take the support of allies – just the JD(U) and TDP have 34 votes between them – for granted, which would make it essential for him to choose the coalition’s nominee with abundant caution instead of enforcing the arbitrary diktat he has been used to for the past decade as Prime Minister.

The numbers, as they stack up in the electoral college for now, present the INDIA bloc with both an opportunity and a challenge. With just over 310 votes on its side at present, the Opposition alliance is 80 votes short of the victory mark of 391 votes.

Will INDIA reach out to BJD and others?

If the collective INDIA leadership acts unitedly, adroitly and with the urgency that the situation demands – a combination it has seldom achieved over the past year – in reaching out to non-aligned Opposition outfits such as Naveen Patnaik’s BJD, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP, Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP (no longer in the INDIA bloc), AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi, Azad Samaj Party’s Chandrashekhar Azad, K. Chandrasekhar Rao’s BRS and Mayawati’s BSP to secure their support for a United Opposition nominee, this 80-vote gap can be cut short almost by half. While this may still not clinch the VP’s post for the alliance, it would embarrass the Modi regime and prove that the Opposition can still coalesce together despite its many differences.

Also read: Jagdeep Dhankhar and 6 other sudden high-profile exits under Modi govt

Last week, when top leaders of INDIA bloc parties met virtually to discuss a common agenda for the monsoon session, they had agreed to meet in-person “at the earlier” to “discuss the political situation in the country” and chart out their future joint course of action. In light of Dhankhar’s sudden resignation, sources in the Opposition alliance told The Federal that this meeting of the INDIA bloc leadership could now take place “within August, either during the five days when Parliament will break mid-session for the Independence day celebrations or sometime immediately after the monsoon session concludes (on August 21)” to discuss a possible joint candidate for the VP election.

A section of INDIA bloc leaders believe that the VP election could happen as early as in September and that the alliance “should not wait for the NDA to announce its nominee”. However, a dominant view within the alliance at least for now is to see who the BJP picks as the NDA candidate.

A senior member of the Congress’ parliamentary strategy group told The Federal that “no discussion, formal or informal” had yet taken place among the INDIA bloc leaders on potential candidates for the VP polls but that it was “understood” that the alliance will force a contest against whoever the NDA taps.

“The discussions (on picking the INDIA candidate) will happen soon and we will certainly reach out to other Opposition parties, which are not part of the INDIA bloc formally, including those who have left recently (read: the AAP) to secure their support. As far as I am aware, the Congress high command will not press for one of our leaders to be chosen as the candidate unless there is a suggestion to this effect from our allies; the priority is not fielding a Congress candidate but a candidate the entire alliance is willing to back,” the Congress veteran said.

He added, “We don’t want another situation like 2022 (when Margaret Alva’s candidature had ruffled Mamata Banerjee, who directed her TMC MPs to abstain from voting in the VP polls despite her party and government’s acrimonious relationship with Dhankhar during his stint as Bengal Governor).”