Has India’s middle class changed over the last few years? Author Pavan K Varma explains

India’s middle class has long been both the engine and enigma of the nation’s modern economic and political journey. But what defines it — income, aspiration, or identity? And is this class still expanding, or has it plateaued post-COVID? In this episode of Off the Beaten Track, Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay speaks to diplomat-author-politician Pavan K Varma, whose seminal 1998 book The Great Indian Middle Class dissected its psyche. Over two decades later, Varma revisits his thesis and reflects on what has changed—and what hasn’t.

Let’s begin with the basic question. What defines the middle class in India today? Is it just about income?

I don’t think the Indian middle class can be defined by income alone. It must be defined by aspiration. To my mind, the middle class is essentially insular. It wants more income, less taxes, more consumer goods. But incomes have shrunk, especially after COVID.

The range of India’s middle class is very wide—unlike in the West. Take someone who gets a government job in a village, even as a peon. With a fixed salary and some disposable income, they’ve climbed the first rung of the middle class. Not in the Western sense, but certainly compared to those below.

And once that happens, aspirations kick in—good education for children, a scooter or a car, an AC instead of a cooler. Aspirationally, they’re in the middle class milieu. From that lowest rung to the affluent, there’s a wide band. That’s why I don’t accept the figure that says only 30% of Indians are middle class. It’s much larger.

What are the major challenges the middle class is currently facing?

The middle class is facing real pressures—shrinking incomes, job losses post-COVID, inflation. Many who were precariously on the lower rungs slipped back into poverty. Yes, things have improved somewhat, but challenges remain: inadequate savings, stagnant incomes, and a feeling that they pay all the taxes while others get the benefits. Whether that’s true or not is another matter.

The dream of the middle class — which seemed achievable after 1991’s economic reforms — has plateaued. Credit was easily available, consumerism was booming, but that upward momentum has slowed. Prices are rising, incomes aren’t keeping up, especially for the struggling middle class.

You’ve said the middle class is insular. Can you elaborate?

Yes, and I say this as a member of the middle class. It is self-centered. It seeks its own well-being, often at the exclusion of broader national concerns. In fact, it’s trying to secede from the Republic—to form a kingdom within a kingdom. That’s what gated communities symbolize: high walls, private water and electricity, exclusion of the poor—except as labour.

It’s a pan-Indian class now. People from different regions and castes share similar aspirations, dress the same, eat the same food. North Indians enjoy dosas, South Indians relish tandoori chicken. There are more inter-caste and inter-community marriages in cities. It’s sartorially unified too—from safari suits to salwar kameez.

The middle class has a common aspiration—more income, less tax, better higher education for children. But it’s less concerned about primary education or public healthcare. That critique from 25 years ago still stands.

Does that insularity explain why the middle class is often seduced by strong leaders or demagogues?

Absolutely. The middle class’s commitment to democracy is deeply transactional. It wants a strong leader who will deliver what it wants—never mind the means. That’s how Narendra Modi’s rise post-UPA II resonated so deeply with the middle class. The perception was that the UPA was plundering, and Modi emerged as the antidote.

But this isn’t unique to India. Look at the rise of ultra-right leaders in the West — many middle-class voters supported them. They prefer someone who cuts through the noise, calls a spade a spade, and doesn’t care much for liberal niceties like human rights or dissent.

When state resources are scarce, the middle class wants fewer competitors for jobs. That’s where majoritarian arguments come in handy — labeling certain groups as “unfit” or undeserving. It’s the same logic used in Germany before WWII and in many Western democracies today. And yes, the Indian middle class is not immune to that.

That brings us to the role of political parties. How do they view and approach the middle class?

As someone still involved in politics—I’m part of the Jan Suraaj party led by Prashant Kishor—I can say that political parties are acutely aware of the middle class’s mood. The middle class is a powerful opinion-shaping force, especially through the media.

Political strategies are often aimed at this class—less tax, subsidies on consumer goods, promises of job creation. But the middle class’s loyalty to democracy is, again, self-serving. So long as the strong leader delivers benefits, they will ignore overreach. But the moment that overreach touches them—say, bulldozer justice affecting their neighbourhood—they suddenly rediscover democratic rights.

We saw this during the Emergency. Initially, the middle class was complicit—happy that trains ran on time and protests were suppressed. But once their own rights were trampled, they joined the protest. It’s a psychological syndrome.

You touched upon identity politics earlier. India is identity-driven—how does the middle class fit into this, especially with the caste census and reservation debates looming?

That’s a vital question. Initially, reservations for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, pushed by Dr B R Ambedkar in the Constituent Assembly, faced much resistance. But he warned that without affirmative action, democracy would implode. Later came the Mandal Commission, which was seen as an assault on established caste hierarchies—especially in middle-class jobs and education.

But here’s what’s changed. Those who benefited from affirmative action have also become part of the middle class. Today, the Indian middle class includes Yadavs, OBCs, Dalits — not just Brahmins, Rajputs, or Kayasthas. So yes, identity is still mobilised politically, but class interests are now cutting across caste lines.

That's why I call it a pan-Indian class. In gated communities, you’ll find people from all caste backgrounds sharing the same aspirations. That’s a fundamental shift from the past.

Finally, given all these dynamics—aspiration, insularity, transactional politics, identity—how do you see the future of India’s middle class?

The middle class remains one of the most powerful voices in India. It controls the levers of influence—media, institutions, bureaucracy. But its dream is becoming harder to achieve. Stagnant incomes, inflation, and social disconnection are creating unease.

Unless the middle class learns to broaden its vision — to care about public health, primary education, inclusive growth — it risks becoming a bubble. And bubbles, by definition, burst.

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