SCO Summit | India’s balancing act: US tariffs, Russia oil, China support

India today finds itself at the heart of a shifting global order. On one side are US tariff bombs. On another, Russian oil barrels. Add to that a tentative thaw with China and new promises with Japan. The question is simple: Can India maintain this delicate balance?

America’s tariff shock

US President Donald Trump has hit Indian exports with tariffs as high as 50 per cent. Textiles, jewellery and leather are among the hardest hit. For hubs like Tirupur, Surat and Ludhiana, this is a billion-dollar blow that threatens jobs and growth.

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Washington has accused New Delhi of profiteering from discounted Russian oil. The irony: it was the US itself that once urged India to buy Russian crude to stabilise prices.

Russia’s steady hand

Moscow remains a crucial partner. Bilateral trade hit a record $68.7 billion last year, led by oil but also including pharmaceuticals and engineering products.

Talks are on to send Indian workers to Russia in IT, construction and skilled jobs, even as Moscow promises steady supplies despite US pressure.

China’s opening

China sees opportunity in India’s troubles. Beijing’s envoy to New Delhi, Xu Feihong, called Washington a bully and pledged to stand with India against tariffs.

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“China will firmly stand with India to uphold the multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core,” Feihong said.

Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan last year, ties have shown tentative improvement. Border tensions remain, but dialogue has reopened.

Japan’s promise

Tokyo is the other key player. Prime Minister Modi pitched India as the place where Japanese capital, infrastructure and technology can combine with Indian scale and talent.

For India, this is a chance to reduce Chinese dominance in Asia’s supply chains. For Japan, it is an opportunity to invest in India’s rise.

Three-way balance

So what is India’s strategy? It rests on three pillars: pushing back against US tariffs, deepening energy and defence ties with Russia, and managing the fragile relationship with China. Alongside, New Delhi is strengthening trust with Japan and other Indo-Pacific partners.

Senior journalist Sridhar Krishnaswamy summed it up: “India will have to do a lot of tight rope walking. That’s why India and Japan are very important, especially in the context of the Quad. If the US pulls away, can the other three step in? These things cannot happen overnight.”

The road ahead

The stakes could not be higher. Exports are under stress. Oil security is uncertain. Rivalries in Asia are sharpening.

For India, the challenge is not just to survive these shocks but to emerge as a steady voice of balance in a fractured global order. The billion-dollar question: Can New Delhi pull it off?

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