Met department forecasts below-normal rainfall in Aug-Sept, barring parts of India
Some parts of peninsular India, central India, northern parts of northwest India, and east and northeast India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall
The Met department has forecast uneven rainfall in the country during August-September, that is, the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season.
In many parts of the country, it has forecast below-normal rainfall, that is, less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average. However, some parts of peninsular India, central India, northern parts of northwest India, and east and northeast India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
Rain forecast till August 6
The department’s latest rainfall data shows that the country received 395.5 mm of rain against the normal of 446.3 mm since the beginning of June, which implies a seasonal deficit of 11 per cent. June’s drastic shortfall was made up in July but the rainfall has been significantly uneven, with some states continuing to report below-normal rainfall.
Also read: Flood here, drought there: A tale of two Indias in monsoon
The latest satellite imagery on the IMD’s X page shows most of the country cloud-free barring patches of dense cloud over the north-eastern states, coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal Gujarat, Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu.
The forecast till August 6 shows rainfall in northern, eastern and north-eastern states, while the peninsular states are expected to get rainfall on August 3 and 4. On August 6, rain is expected to ease in most of the country, barring the east, north-east and the Gangetic plains.
Image courtesy: X/@Indiametdept
El Nino conditions expected to intensify
In August, maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over most parts of the country. However, some areas of northwest and central India and isolated regions of the adjoining southern peninsula may experience normal to below-normal maximum temperatures. Minimum temperatures are expected to remain normal to above normal in most parts of the country.
Also read: Monsoon mayhem: Floods ravage Kerala, Odisha, Assam; IMD warns of more rain
El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently moderate, with sea surface temperature anomalies remaining above normal across central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further throughout the remaining period of the monsoon season.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are neutral, which is likely to persist throughout the remaining monsoon period. However, some international forecasting centres have suggested that positive IOD conditions may develop in September.