India’s Muslim population will never surpass that of Hindus: Expert

For decades, India's political discourse has been marred by claims that Muslims will overtake Hindus in population. In an in-depth conversation with The Federal’s Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India, dismantled this narrative using demographic data. She explained that while Muslim population growth was historically higher, declining fertility rates, rising education levels, and economic factors have significantly slowed it down.

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Fertility rates not determined by religion

Muttreja highlighted that past trends of higher Muslim birth rates were driven by low education levels and higher poverty rates. However, recent data indicates that this gap is closing. "If you look at Kerala, where both Hindus and Muslims have better education and income levels, their fertility rates are nearly identical," she noted.

The decline in fertility is not unique to one community.

"Even in Bihar, where Hindu birth rates are still higher due to poverty and lack of education, the numbers are gradually reducing," Muttreja added. She emphasised that religion is not the primary factor in determining fertility rates - economic and educational opportunities are.

Muslims will never outnumber Hindus

According to demographic trends, the maximum Muslim population in India is projected to peak at 18 per cent by the next century, making the claim that they will overtake Hindus factually incorrect. Muttreja explained that fertility trends always move in one direction - downward.

"Once fertility rates decline, they never increase again, no matter what policies governments introduce," she said, citing global examples like Japan, Russia, and China.

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Education plays a crucial role in this shift.

"Muslim girls are getting educated, and educated women tend to have fewer children," she added.

This trend is consistent across all communities and is a key reason why the Muslim population will never surpass Hindus.

Politics of fear-mongering

Muttreja expressed concern that politicians exploit outdated census data to push misleading narratives. She pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi used this argument during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, suggesting that opposition parties would take resources from Hindus to give to families with "more children".

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This narrative, according to Muttreja, is a political tool rather than a demographic reality.

"Despite access to extensive demographic data, misleading claims about population growth persist in political discourse," she remarked.

Why India needs updated census data

India's last census was conducted in 2011, and the 2021 census has been repeatedly delayed. Without updated demographic figures, policymaking remains flawed. Muttreja warned that misinformation fills the gap when real data is missing, leading to public misconceptions about migration, urbanisation, and employment.

"Census data is critical for seat distribution, electoral representation, and resource allocation. Without it, we risk basing policies on outdated or cherry-picked information," she cautioned.

Coercive policies don’t work

Muttreja firmly opposed population control measures based on incentives and disincentives, arguing that such policies disproportionately burden women.

"History has shown that forcing people to have fewer children does not work. Women's reproductive rights must be prioritised," she emphasised.

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She cited the Cairo Declaration of 1994, where India committed to a human-centered approach to population policies. However, coercive methods, such as incentives for sterilisation, still persist.

"77 per cent of Indian women who undergo sterilisation have never used temporary contraception. This is not by choice but due to lack of access to better options," she revealed.

Role of education and economic empowerment

Education and economic participation are the real drivers of lower fertility rates. Muttreja highlighted that women who complete Class 12 are more likely to have two or fewer children, irrespective of religion.

"Men, on the other hand, have been largely irresponsible and uninvolved in family planning," she stated. This patriarchal structure leaves the burden of contraception, childcare, and family planning entirely on women.

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For India to truly become Viksit Bharat, Muttreja argued, women must be empowered through education, jobs, and economic independence.

"No country has achieved economic success without women actively participating in the workforce," she concluded.

Facts over fear

Poonam Muttreja’s insights debunk the myth of Muslims overtaking Hindus and emphasise that education, healthcare, and economic growth - not religious fear-mongering - should shape India’s population policies.

She urged policymakers to focus on improving census data, investing in education, and ensuring women's reproductive rights, rather than pushing misleading narratives that divide communities.

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