Is India ceding space to China in conflict-hit Myanmar? | Subir Bhaumik speaks

Myanmar has been engulfed in a brutal civil war since 2021, with pro-democracy forces and ethnic rebel groups fighting the ruling military junta. The unrest has destabilised large swathes of the country and carries major implications for India, which shares a 1,600 km border with Myanmar. To understand the evolving situation, its impact on India, and the role of China, The Federal spoke to veteran journalist Subir Bhaumik, who has extensively reported on Myanmar for global media outlets including the BBC.

What is the current status of the insurgency in Myanmar? Is there any progress toward the elections promised by the junta?

The elections being spoken of are essentially a farce. The junta has lost control of at least half the country’s territory, and without territorial control, elections are meaningless. Since the February 2021 coup that prevented Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) from taking office, the situation has only worsened.

Several groups are fighting the junta. Long-standing ethnic rebel armies like the Kachin Independence Army, Karen groups, Shan factions, and the Arakan Army continue to push for secession or at least greater autonomy through a genuine federal system.

Alongside them, Burman-led pro-democracy groups, once reliant on peaceful protests, have now taken up arms after being brutally suppressed. They operate as People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) and are aligned with Myanmar’s parallel government formed by lawmakers, largely from the NLD, who were blocked from taking power. PDFs often ally with ethnic rebel groups in their regions, creating a powerful resistance network.

A third front comprises smaller armed Rohingya groups operating from bases in Bangladesh. Together, these forces have ensured that elections under military rule are simply not possible in rebel-held areas. Even where the junta attempts polls, the international community is unlikely to see them as credible.

Given this context, how is India responding to the Myanmar crisis?

India has taken a largely passive stance, preferring a “wait and watch” approach. This is despite being one of the few countries with access to all sides — the junta, the pro-democracy groups, and even some ethnic rebels such as the Kachins and Arakanese.

Instead of leveraging this unique position, New Delhi has left the mediation role to ASEAN, which adopted a Five-Point Consensus. But ASEAN’s efforts have failed to make headway, leaving the field open for China.

How is China intervening in Myanmar?

China has decisively stepped in where ASEAN faltered. Beijing is openly propping up the junta, even pressuring some rebel groups near its border — such as the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) — to return territory they had seized from the military. This included the strategic town of Lashio, headquarters of the junta’s northeastern command.

Beyond diplomacy, China is securing its economic interests. The junta has allowed Chinese companies to deploy their own armed security personnel — similar to Pakistan — to guard major infrastructure projects. In Rakhine, where the Arakan Army is fighting the junta, China has critical investments, including the Kyaukphyu port, a special economic zone, and a refinery linked by pipeline to Yunnan. Reports even suggest Chinese personnel are operating drones for the junta, indicating military-grade involvement.

What does this mean for India’s connectivity and security interests?

India’s main concerns in Myanmar are connectivity and security. On the connectivity front, two flagship projects are in jeopardy. The India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway is stalled due to insecurity, contractor fears, and shifting territorial control between the junta and multiple rebel groups. The Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project — meant to connect Kolkata with Mizoram via Sittwe port and the Kaladan river — is equally troubled. While Union Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal recently claimed it would be operational next year, ground realities suggest otherwise: most of Rakhine is under Arakan Army control, while other stretches fall under Chin rebels. Paletwa, a critical junction, has already fallen to rebels.

On security, Indian intelligence is deeply concerned about spillover. Ethnic ties between Myanmar rebels and groups in Northeast India — such as Kuki factions in Manipur — are strong. Drones now used by Kuki groups in Manipur’s conflict with Meiteis likely came from Myanmar, where both rebels and the junta employ drones extensively. Historically, Kachins trained Indian insurgents, including Naga and ULFA cadres. A protracted civil war in Myanmar could reignite militancy in India’s northeast.

Can India and China cooperate to resolve Myanmar’s crisis?

Such cooperation is risky for India. China has placed all its bets on the junta, while India, by staying neutral, has at least avoided hostility from pro-democracy groups and ethnic rebels. If India is seen as aligning with Beijing, it risks alienating these forces.

Moreover, the junta already relies heavily on China and would remain beholden to Beijing, not New Delhi. India gains little by joining hands with China, but risks losing the trust of actors who have historically been sympathetic to it. Instead, India should be seen as a neutral player genuinely interested in peace and federal democracy in Myanmar.

So, is Myanmar heading toward a prolonged conflict?

Yes. At present, there is a temporary stalemate. The junta, which was steadily losing territory, has regained some ground in recent weeks under heavy Chinese pressure on rebel groups. But this does not mean stability — large areas remain under rebel control, and fighting continues.

With no serious mediation effort by the UN or major powers, and China intent only on saving the junta, Myanmar is locked in a civil war with no resolution in sight.

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