Pakistan sees India as existential threat, modernising nuclear arsenal: US report

Pakistan continues to view India as an “existential threat” and is modernising its nuclear arsenal with military and economic aid from China, according to the latest World Threat Assessment report released by the US Defence Intelligence Agency on Sunday (May 25).

“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage,” it said.

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On the other hand, the report says, “India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed, despite cross-border attacks in mid-May by both India’s and Pakistan’s militaries.”

Countering Chinese clout

The report forecasts that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s defence priorities will probably focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing New Delhi's military power.

India, it says, is prioritising bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean region to counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role.

It also referred to the India-China border dispute and said last year's disengagement “did not resolve the longstanding dispute about border demarcation but reduced some tension still lingering” from the 2020 clash.

Focus on defence industry

“India almost certainly will continue promoting its ‘Made in India’ initiative this year to build its domestic defence industry, mitigate supply chain concerns, and modernise its military. India continued to modernise its military in 2024, conducting a test of the nuclear-capable developmental Agni-I Prime MRBM and the Agni-V multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle while also commissioning its second nuclear-powered submarine to strengthen its nuclear triad and bolster its ability to deter adversaries,” it said.

On India-Russia ties, the US report said India will maintain its relationship with Russia through 2025 because it views its ties to Russia “as important for achieving its economic and defence objectives and sees value in the relationship as a means to offset deepening Russia-China relations”.

Pak Army’s top priorities

The US report said the Pakistan military’s top priorities are likely to remain cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbours, rising attacks by Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist militants, counterterrorism efforts, and nuclear modernisation. “Despite Pakistan’s daily operations during the past year, militants killed more than 2,500 people in Pakistan in 2024.”

“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India's conventional military advantage,” says the report.

“Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” it adds.

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As per the report, Pakistan receives economic and military assistance from China and its forces conduct multiple military exercises with Chinese forces. “Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan's WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China and sometimes are trans-shipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. However, terrorist attacks targeting Chinese workers who support China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects have emerged as a point of friction between the countries; seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024,” it says.