Steep tariff for India, oil deal for Pak: What to make of Trump’s flip
After hitting India with tariffs, Trump backs Pakistan’s oil ambitions. What’s behind the shift? And what does it mean for India?
US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new oil exploration deal with Pakistan, coupled with fresh 25 per cent tariffs on Indian imports, has sparked geopolitical tensions.
In a Capital Beat discussion, international affairs experts Prof. Swaran Singh of the JNU and KS Dakshina Murthy, Consulting Editor with The Federal, analysed the implications for India-US relations, Pakistan’s role, and trade dynamics.
Trump’s oil deal with Pakistan: Political theatre?
Trump claimed the US and Pakistan would jointly develop Pakistan’s oil reserves, suggesting future exports to India. Prof. Swaran Singh dismissed the deal as "political theatre", citing Pakistan’s limited oil reserves (350 million barrels—just 0.02 per cent of global reserves) and lack of commercial viability.
"Pakistan imports 85 per cent of its oil. Even if reserves were tapped, extraction would require $5 billion and 4-5 years," Singh noted. The move appears timed to pressure India ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline.
Also read: Why India should stand up to Trump, emerge a better economy
Trump’s harsh rhetoric and India’s stance
In a tweet, Trump called India and Russia "dead economies" and criticized India’s trade policies. Despite the language, experts noted his pattern of using provocative statements globally. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal reiterated India’s economic resilience, citing its rise from the "fragile five" to the world’s fifth-largest economy.
Sanctions on Indian firms and Iran’s role
The US also sanctioned Indian companies importing Iranian oil, further straining ties. Trump’s unpredictability, described as "maximum pressure strategy", leaves India navigating a volatile trade landscape.
Also read: Trump signs oil deal with Pakistan, says ‘they may sell to India some day’
Pakistan’s geopolitical leverage
Dakshina Murthy highlighted Pakistan’s history of "double games", leveraging US ties while maintaining relationships with rivals like Iran. The oil deal, though economically insignificant, serves as a symbolic snub to India.
India’s strategic options
With tariffs looming, India faces tough choices:
- Resist concessions on agriculture and dairy, key sticking points in trade talks.
- Diversify alliances, reducing reliance on US markets.
- Leverage BRICS for stronger South-South trade partnerships.
Also read: India has 7 options to counter Trump tariff, assert sovereign rights
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