‘Super El Nino’ could put over 450,000 lives at risk from extreme heat

A projected “Super El Niño” could result in an estimated 451,000 deaths from extreme heat during the first half of the climate event, according to a new report by the Climate Impact Lab, which has called for immediate action in regions facing the greatest risks.

The report warns that the El Niño could also intensify the risks of drought, wildfires and flooding as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns shift. The event could become one of the strongest on record, adding to concerns about its impact on vulnerable populations.

451,000 lives at risk

The 451,000 deaths projected for the first six months of El Niño are about 65 times the 6,800 people believed to have died or gone missing in the recent Nepal flash floods, the report said.

However, the researchers stressed that the projected deaths are not inevitable. Directing emergency response and adaptation measures towards areas expected to experience the greatest heat-related mortality could prevent tens of thousands of deaths, they said.

Also read: India braces for hotter days, erratic monsoon as 'super El Nino' develops

“We have long been able to predict the impacts of temperatures on crops, and now we can predict their impact on the worst outcome, death,” said Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago.

Greenstone said the projected figure could appear overwhelming but represented individual lives, including parents, children, grandparents and people going about their daily lives. “This report allows decision-makers to see exactly where emergency actions can be taken now to save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months,” he said.

Acting before the heat peaks

The report points to several measures that could help reduce heat-related deaths. These include early warning systems, cooling centres and measures to protect outdoor workers from extreme temperatures. Some of these measures are already being implemented in regions preparing for the effects of the current El Niño.

The researchers said the new projections could help governments and emergency agencies determine where limited resources should be deployed first. They also argued that mortality from extreme heat should receive the same attention in El Niño preparations as risks to food security and other climate-related impacts.

A glimpse of the future

The current El Niño is also being presented as a warning of what a warmer world could look like in the future. According to the report, the temperatures associated with the event resemble conditions that climate change could make more common roughly 20 years from now.

Also read: Why the familiar-sounding warning of a potential super El Niño sounds shriller this time

“This year’s extreme temperatures offer a glimpse at what lies ahead without new investments in adaptation,” the report said.

The researchers said longer-term measures would need to go beyond emergency response. More accurate temperature forecasting and wider access to cooling technologies could help communities prepare for increasingly frequent periods of extreme heat.

Beyond emergency response

Tamma Carleton, Faculty Head of Research at the Climate Impact Lab and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said emergency measures could save many lives during the current event, but governments needed to plan for a future in which such temperatures could become normal.

“Increasing emergency response and better targeting our efforts can save many lives this year,” Carleton said. “But 20 years from now, once today’s extreme temperatures become the new normal, we don’t want to be in a constant state of emergency.”

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She called for resources to be mobilised now to design, deploy and evaluate measures that could protect people from extreme heat in the years ahead.

The Climate Impact Lab said it would continue monitoring the development of El Niño and update its projections of additional deaths as the event progresses.