Talking Sense With Srini | Iran-Israel truce: ‘War paused, but region is far from peace’
As the dust settles, the fundamental questions remain unanswered. Has Iran’s nuclear programme been derailed? Will the ceasefire hold?
On the latest episode of Talking Sense with Srini, The Federal's Editor-in-Chief S. Srinivasan delved into the evolving situation in West Asia, where a tenuous truce between Israel and Iran — brokered by US President Donald Trump — has put a temporary stop to weeks of military confrontation.
“This war seems to be over, yes,” Srinivasan said, “but peace? That’s far from assured.”
Palestinian issue
The roots of the conflict, as Srinivasan pointed out, go back to the October 7, 2023, Hamas rocket attacks, which breached Israel’s Iron Dome and killed scores. Israel’s overwhelming retaliation in Gaza triggered regional escalation, with Hezbollah drawn into the fray, followed by Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Iran, which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah, became the next target as Israel sought to dismantle what it called the “roots” of the threat.
Also read: The multiple casualties of US attack on Iran
In response, the US entered the conflict with heavy aerial bombardments on Iranian nuclear facilities, including the one in Fordow, believed to house enriched uranium. While Trump has declared the mission a success, American intelligence reportedly told the White House that Iran’s nuclear infrastructure may not have been fully neutralised.
“Trump, Netanyahu, and Khamenei have all declared victory,” Srinivasan observed. “But whether Iran’s nuclear capability is truly crippled remains unclear. Iran may have relocated some of its enriched uranium in anticipation of the attack.”
Also read: Trump’s attack on Iran, a ‘spectacular’ failure of US foreign policy
Srinivasan also emphasised that no long-term peace is possible in the region without addressing the Palestinian issue. “You can’t wish away Gaza,” he said. “Unless there's a path to a two-state solution, these flashpoints will keep recurring.”
The conversation then turned to the geopolitical rhetoric surrounding Iran. Trump recently called Iran “the bully of the Middle East”— a remark Srinivasan contextualised as part of a long tradition of American political coinage.
Also read: Iran says nuclear facilities badly damaged by US airstrikes
“Remember Bush’s ‘axis of evil’?” he said. “Iran, in turn, calls itself part of the ‘axis of resistance.’ These labels are political tools, not objective descriptions.”
Fundamental questions remain unanswered
On the economic front, despite earlier fears, oil prices have held steady at around $70 a barrel. Srinivasan noted that India's diversification of crude sources, particularly increased imports from Russia, has helped cushion potential shocks. While India is still heavily dependent on imported oil and LPG — much of which comes through the Strait of Hormuz — he said there’s currently no sign of an Iranian blockade.
Interestingly, Iran’s response to the strikes was restrained. “They sent missiles, yes,” Srinivasan noted, “but they gave prior notice. The American base in Qatar was already evacuated. So much of their retaliation was symbolic.”
As the dust settles, the fundamental questions remain unanswered. Has Iran’s nuclear programme been derailed? Will the ceasefire hold? And can West Asia escape its cycle of conflict without a durable political solution?
For now, Srinivasan said, “The war is paused, but the region is far from peace.”
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