Where is Cyclone Shakhti moving and how intense is it now?

Cyclone Shakhti, the first cyclonic storm of the post-monsoon season over the Arabian Sea, has intensified, churning up the sea with sustained wind speeds of around 100 kmph and higher gusts, officials said on Saturday (October 4).

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According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is expected to bring rough weather conditions along the Maharashtra coast, including Mumbai, in the coming days.

Maharashtra braces for cyclone

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday placed Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg districts on alert, warning of strong winds and heavy rainfall between October 3 and 7. Wind speeds are expected to range between 45–55 kmph, gusting up to 65 kmph, along the north Maharashtra coast from October 3 to 5. Fishermen have been strongly advised to avoid venturing into the sea, as very rough to high sea conditions are likely during this period.

Though the centre of Cyclone Shakhti remains well away from India’s coastline, its outer bands are expected to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to parts of Maharashtra. Interior regions, particularly East Vidarbha and Marathwada, are forecast to receive intense downpours on October 3 and 4, which could lead to flooding in low-lying areas of North Konkan. Additionally, thunderstorms and moderate rainfall are predicted across Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada due to the combined influence of a depression over interior Odisha, which is interacting with the cyclonic system over the Arabian Sea.

In view of the forecasts, the Maharashtra government has directed district administrations to activate disaster management systems, prepare evacuation plans for vulnerable areas, issue timely public advisories, and ensure adequate safety measures during heavy rainfall. Districts including Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Pune, and Ratnagiri have been placed under a “yellow alert” as a precautionary measure.

Where is Shakhti headed now?

Cyclone Shakhti, which has strengthened into a severe cyclonic storm, continued to move further into the Arabian Sea and was centred about 420 km away from Dwarka in Gujarat, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

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At 12 pm on Saturday, the IMD reported that severe cyclonic storm Shakhti over the northwest and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea was moving westwards at a speed of 18 kmph over the past six hours.

As of 8.30 am, the storm’s centre was located over the northwest and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea near latitude 22.0°N and longitude 64.5°E, approximately 470 km west of Dwarka, 470 km west-southwest of Naliya, 420 km southwest of Karachi in Pakistan, and 600 km east-northeast of Masirah in Oman.

The IMD said Shakhti is likely to continue moving west-southwestwards, reaching the northwest and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea by October 5. From the morning of October 6, the system is expected to recurve east-northeastwards and gradually weaken.

Under the influence of the storm, sea conditions are expected to remain rough to very rough along and off the Gujarat–north Maharashtra coast as well as the Pakistan coast until Sunday, the IMD added.

Why is it named Shakhti?

The name “Shakhti” (spelled with an ‘h’) was proposed by Sri Lanka under the regional cyclone-naming system followed by countries bordering the North Indian Ocean. The framework includes 13 member nations, including Bangladesh, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and others, each submitting a list of names that are used sequentially as new cyclones form.

“Shakhti” was the next name on the list once the weather system intensified into a cyclonic storm, reaching wind speeds of 34 knots (about 62 km/h). While the word closely resembles the Indian term “Shakti,” meaning “power” or “strength,” the version with an added ‘h’ reflects Sri Lanka’s transliteration style and adheres to the standardised naming conventions agreed upon by the participating countries.

IMD’s warning for fishermen

The weather office has warned fishermen not to venture into the northwest Arabian Sea, adjoining areas of the northeast Arabian Sea, central Arabian Sea and along and off the Gujarat-north Maharashtra coasts until Tuesday.

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In recent years, storms like Tauktae (2021) and Biparjoy (2023) have formed in the Arabian Sea, which has witnessed fewer cyclones compared to the Bay of Bengal.

Storm surge across Asia

Over the past month, the Pacific Ocean has witnessed heightened storm activity, with at least two major systems striking the Philippines, China, and neighbouring coastal nations, leaving behind widespread destruction. Among the strong storms that battered the region were Typhoon Tapah (September 8), Typhoon Ragasa (September 20), Typhoon Neoguri (September 20), and Typhoon Bualoi (September 22). Some of these systems later re-emerged in the Bay of Bengal after traversing land and sea routes.

The North Indian Ocean basin, which includes both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is particularly vulnerable to cyclones during two key periods of the year: the pre-monsoon season from March to May, and the post-monsoon season from October to December.