With backing from Yunus and the army chief, Jamaat tightens its grip on institutions, courts Awami voters, and unsettles India as surveys point to a knife-edge race
For the first time in Bangladesh's post-independence history, an Islamist coalition led by the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami seems to be mounting a strong challenge to wrest power, something that would have been unthinkable even a year ago.
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Tarnished by its role in the 1971 Liberation War, when its cadres joined the Pakistan army in its genocidal campaign to suppress the Bengali rebellion, the Jamaat-e-Islami's vote share never entered double digits after 1971. But with the Awami League banned from the February 12 parliamentary polls and the BNP grappling with increasing factionalism, the Jamaat-e-Islami seems to be gaining in confidence to make a credible bid for power.
Jamaat’s powerful patrons
In this election, the Jamaat-e-Islami has two strong allies besides the 10 parties it has aligned with – interim government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus and army chief Gen Waker-u-Zaman. Both have given visible indications that they want to see the Jamaat-e-Islami in power. Yunus has set his sights on the presidency, and Jamaat-e-Islami appears to have promised him the top office, an arrangement meant to blunt fears that it would be seen as running a government of mullahs.
The army chief has been backing Jamaat-e-Islami since he invited its chief before anyone else for deliberations to form an interim government immediately after Sheikh Hasina's ouster from power. Waker-u-Zaman not only played an unconcealed role in the ouster but also shocked everyone by inviting the Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned organisation at that point, to take the lead in forming the interim government. Gen Zaman is believed to have been promised the position of National Security Adviser after his retirement by the Jamaat.
It seems the army chief is moving a Jamaat favourite, Lt Gen Kamrul Hassan, to the position of Chief of General Staff (CGS) ahead of the February 12 polls. The CGS is the officer responsible for military deployments, which becomes important during polls. Another Jamaat favourite, Lt Gen Fazyur Rahman, is likely to replace Kamrul as Principal Staff Officer (PSO) in the Armed Forces Division, now attached to the Chief Adviser's office. In the past 18 months since Yunus took charge, all important levers of power – military, civil bureaucracy, judiciary, Election Commission – have been infiltrated by the Jamaat-e-Islami.
Courting the Awami vote
Bangladesh intelligence sources say the Jamaat-e-Islami is trying to get most polling booths located at Qaumi madrassas and their head clerics appointed presiding officers. With the Awami League boycotting the elections, the Jamaat's disciplined cadre force can slip into booths at later hours to stamp up for absent Awami voters. Intelligence officials also say the Jamaat-e-Islami is identifying poor voters and beleaguered Awami supporters for cash payouts.
Since most cases against Awami Leaguers have been filed by BNP supporters, the Jamaat-e-Islami is reaching out to them with offers of support and protection only if they vote for their candidates. Since the Awami vote bank of around 35 per cent may emerge as decisive in an election where the party is out of the contest, both sides will make a strong bid to get Awami voters to the booths to vote for them.
The BNP may be pandering to Liberation War rhetoric to woo Awami voters with a promise of continuity in the polity, and India’s warming up to the BNP may help. But Jamaat-e-Islami’s more direct approach could prove more effective on the ground.
Surveys predict close fight
Various surveys point to a close race. If that is so, Jamaat-e-Islami would not only have covered a great deal of ground, but if it runs the BNP really close, it may even force it to consider a national government in which it would get fewer ministerial berths than the BNP.
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Intelligence sources say that is exactly what Jamaat's external patrons – Pakistan, Turkey, the US deep state – want, because a strong Jamaat-e-Islami presence in any government will help them achieve their long-term objectives, including a Sharia-driven Islamic Republic. India may expect a moderate BNP government, emboldened by the breaking away of the Chormonai Peer-led Islami Andolan from the Jamaat-led alliance, to be a “better-than-worse” option in view of present realities. But if the BNP fails to win by a substantial margin and is compelled to team up with the Jamaat-e-Islami, Delhi will be back to square one, staring at a less-than-friendly government in Dhaka, raising serious concerns on its Eastern frontiers.
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