As the EC’s voter roll purge triggers a political storm, Bihar readies for a high-stakes poll shaped by history, identity, and suspicion; who will pull it off?
The Assembly elections in Bihar have been called in the backdrop of the controversy over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, undertaken by the Election Commission (EC).
The exercise, initiated without even scant consultations with political stakeholders, was brazenly completed by the EC in the face of political opposition and judicial nudges to maintain institutional neutrality and not violate the legal framework.
Divisive effect of SIR
The Commission’s decision has unsurprisingly resulted in sharp polarisation across the political spectrum, within the state and outside. It has also triggered a sharper divergence within civil society and media across India.
Also read: Battle lines drawn in Bihar as dates announced; Oppn continues to slam EC
This is crucial when political parties no longer wield sole power to frame narratives, and even an individual can become the harbinger of change if armed with the power of social media, or even its absence, as seen in Nepal recently.
In the political terrain, the EC’s ‘project cleansing’, on the one side, secured the expected endorsement of the BJP and the JD (U) along with their smaller allies – Lok Janshakti Party (RV), Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Hindustan Awam Morcha.
For the first time in several years, Opposition parties, especially the Congress, for its more rousing campaign against SIR and advocacy of the ‘vote chori’ slogan, are in a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ situation.
On the other side, parties comprising the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), waged a sustained campaign against the EC and alleged that the purpose of the electoral roll revision was primarily to steal votes (dubbed by Congress as ‘vote chori’). The Grand Alliance claimed that names of “inconvenient voters” were systematically deleted to ensure victory for the ruling party (alliance in Bihar’s case).
Prashant Kishor factor
The marked ambivalence of Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) stood in contrast to the clear stance of the two principal adversaries. As the political newbie makes its maiden electoral entry (discounting its foray in by-elections for four Bihar Assembly seats in November 2024), the poll verdict will determine if the hype that accompanies its presence on the poll battleground and in media is matched by the votes it secures and the seats it wins.
Kishor, however, has been involved in numerous elections as a professional consultant-cum-manager and electoral adviser from the early years of the second decade of the 21st century, beginning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as ‘client’.
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In fact, the credit accorded by media and analysts to Kishor for the Modi-led BJP’s stunning performance in the 2014 parliamentary elections was instrumental in souring his relations with numerous BJP leaders, including Modi’s closest aide and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.
As a consequence, Kishor played a significant role in several electoral campaigns for other parties in different states thereafter. In no time, he emerged as a ‘cult figure’ of sorts for a section of tech-savvy youth, who wanted to experiment beyond ‘standard’ and well-laid-out professions their predecessors and peers pursued.
Long-term regrets
Eventually, the BJP leadership rued the decision to force out the ace poll manager from its camp. No one, however, admitted this openly. ‘How could they?’ It may well be asked, for was not the decision taken on the desk where the buck stopped?
In time, Kishor played a significant role in sewing up the alliance between RJD and JD(U). The Congress too stayed with its old ally, Lalu Prasad, for the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. This was the election in which the BJP was humbled, and Bihar became the first big state Modi failed to win after becoming Prime Minister.
Kishor also had a hand in the victory of the Trinamool Congress over the BJP in West Bengal in May 2021, a poll in which both Modi and Shah campaigned tirelessly till the last stages of the multi-phased elections.
Also read: NDA’s Rs 62,000 Cr poll bonanza blunts Opposition's ‘vote chori’ plank
Heads I win, tails you lose
That being the backdrop of the Assembly polls in Bihar, it can be stated that for the first time in several years, the Opposition parties, especially the Congress — for all its more rousing campaign against SIR and advocacy of the ‘vote chori’ slogan — are in a ‘heads I win, tails you lose’ situation.
If the slogan and the campaign click with the people and add up with other factors that could go against the NDA — anti-incumbency sentiment, not so laudable performance of either the state or central governments and the cloud over Nitish Kumar’s mental health — and the ruling alliance is voted out, opposition parties will be ecstatically chuckling all the way to the venue of the swearing-in ceremony.
These parties, especially the Congress, will ceaselessly beat the drum to claim that their campaign aroused people sufficiently enough to instill fear of falling foul of the masses, in the minds of the three election commissioners, principally the Chief Election Commissioner, personally accused of manipulation of electoral rolls by Rahul Gandhi.
They will broadcast over every possible medium that it was this dread which prevented the EC from doing what they ‘had been tasked to do’.
Immediate pathway
In such a situation, if the NDA does not get a majority, even if the Mahagathbandhan fails to secure one and the verdict throws up a hung Assembly, the message that will be transmitted from Bihar will make people wary in states where the EC next initiates the SIR exercise.
And, if by chance, the verdict favours the ruling alliance and it returns to power, the Opposition will undeniably call it a ‘stolen victory’. For the next four years, until the next Lok Sabha elections in 2029, it will continue to question the integrity of this verdict and campaign that the neutrality of the EC is badly compromised.
Also read: Why is Nitish, known for no-tolerance policy, mum on graft charges against Bihar ministers
Whether or not such a campaign will have any impact cannot be assessed now. But, it would certainly provide leaders of opposition parties an immediate pathway to walk on while explaining their ‘failure’.
Hope Bihar isn’t replicated elsewhere
When the EC released its final voters list, it was revealed that for the first time, it had managed to perform the same act that was embedded in the title of the 1989 American sci-fi classic, Honey, I Shrunk the Kids.
Indeed, the electoral rolls have been shrivelled with a verdict-altering number of voters missing from the list. These voters’ lists shall remain a testimony to either the manipulation of the electoral process, or the incompetence of previous ECs in striking out duplicate names, or those of deceased, or migrated persons.
Also read: SIR: 'Final' Bihar voter roll still a mystery, leaves Grand Alliance baffled
I just hope that, like the film, which had two sequels and one TV series, the Bihar SIR does not lead to the ‘shrinking’ of electoral rolls in several other states and eventually across the country. If that happens, India would truly be shepherded into becoming an Orwellian state.
NDA beats the same dead horse
With the EC now formally flagging off the race to the citadel of power in Bihar, there is no denying that both principal adversaries are short of ideas. Within hours of the announcement, a claim made by Shah was put out across platforms: “NDA pulled Bihar out of Jungle Raj”.
If people are asked if they have heard this before, the answers will mainly be in the affirmative. And they must have heard it, not once, but multiple times.
The BJP hopes to benefit from the ‘revdis’ (freebies) which Modi has distributed in bulk. The aim is to buttress identity politics with acts of ‘charity’.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee once declared, “tired, but not retired”, during the moment of political transition within the BJP after his defeat in 2004. Eventually, exhaustion and accountability took their toll, and he stepped aside.
The BJP may not accept this, but the persona of Nitish Kumar personifies fatigue in the NDA in Bihar. More analytically speaking, this is undeniably the ‘last’ poll for the JD(U), at least in its present form, and this thought dwells in the minds of most party seniors, but probably not on the man who created a credible alternative to Lalu.
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Grand Alliance, a squabbling lot
But that is a ‘once-upon-a-time’ story we can pass on to the next generation who are yet to get interested in politics.
The majority of Mahagathbandhan leaders remain squabbling, not-so-significant representatives, enhancing their party claims on TV on matters that are best handled among their bosses, and that too in the quietness of an enclosed space.
There are issues that will unfold, and we will, in weeks to come, know whether ‘identity’ and ‘loyalty to party’ on caste-lines remains the primary factor in Bihar.
But, it must be noted that the BJP hopes to benefit from the ‘revdis’ (freebies) which Modi has distributed in bulk during the EC-provided time window, like in all previous elections in the recent past. The aim is to buttress identity politics with acts of ‘charity’, given as economic largesse to prevent hunger and malnutrition assuming epidemic proportions.
Also read: Nitish Kumar’s ‘Dus Hazaar’ cash transfer frenzy sweeps Bihar ahead of elections
Tried and tested mantra
It is to be recalled that Modi, in his Independence Day speech, said that the government will launch a ‘High-Powered Demographic Mission’. Significantly, this has been followed by several speeches in which he reiterated this pledge.
The template has been prepared; the BJP will depict the existence of an Islamist conspiracy to ‘reduce’ Hindus to ‘minority status’ in ‘their own country’.
The question is — why does the BJP chant polarising ideas and slogans on the eve of elections? The answer is simple: Because, there is really not much else to talk about that can secure yet another mandate.
After all, besides the intra-Sangh Parivar divergences which triggered BJP’s fall from the majority mark, the livelihood concerns of the people – put simply, unprecedented joblessness, increasing monetary disparity and economic stagnation – also played a major part in last year’s parliamentary elections.
Also read: Why Rahul, Tejashwi's EBC Nyay resolution is key to Grand Alliance's Bihar poll strategy
Identity to play a key role
But, as a note of caution, let me say that we will know only after the campaign starts drawing people out, like they did during the ‘vote chori’ marches. And if ‘identity’ and ‘fear of the other’ become the bigger issues than the daily worries that hound people once the EVMs are done with and dusted for the next round.
What we certainly know at the moment, however, is that ‘renunciation’ and ‘renunciates’ do get looked in. The Indian National Movement would not have gathered such momentum in 1919-20 if Mahatma Gandhi had not exchanged his dapper costumes for the loincloth and the white khadi shawl.
In recent times, Arvind Kejriwal too got a dekko from voters in 2013, even with little resources and a non-existent organisation. Modi too, claimed to have forsaken his family and ‘normal’ life to prioritise ‘duty’ over himself.
Indeed, there is a possibility of Kishor emerging as the X-factor and the ‘kingmaker’.
Also read: CWC meet: Congress alleges BJP-JDU stealing land, wealth, jobs in Bihar
When Bihar stood united
Bihar, in the past, has behaved politically as the harbinger of change on two key occasions. One such significant movement was the Bihar Indigo Farmers Revolt, also known as the Champaran Satyagraha of 1917.
Almost six decades later, when the JP Movement stood up against misrule and corruption in the state, the colonialists were no longer in power, but the leader of that time needed to be taught that political arbitrariness and authoritarian tendencies are not acceptable to people.
On both occasions, people stood as one. More importantly, there was no majoritarianism in the minds of people.
It is, however, too early to determine if people who emerged from that inclusive heritage have cast aside the divisiveness that has been planted among them.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
