JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and RJD's Tejashwi Yadav on campaign trails in Bihar, which goes to the polls on November 6. Photos: PTI
The outcome of Bihar polls remains uncertain few days before polls amid controversial deletions of 47 lakh voters, and political crosscurrents
It’s a topsy-turvy world in Bihar’s electoral politics. Just days left for the first round of polling (November 6), and even seasoned local observers and analysts are in a quandary. Most indicate a close contest.
Probably, they are remembering the data from the 2020 Assembly elections, where the two main coalitions each secured close to 37 per cent of the vote share. The contest was nearly a tie, with the ruling NDA edging out the Mahagathbandhan (INDIA bloc) by a slim margin of just 12,000 votes, across a state comprising 243 constituencies. Given that the caste alignments on both sides appear closely matched at this stage, it's risky to speculate whether any cracks have emerged.
Some developments could be read as signs yet they are offset by countervailing forces, notably, led by the Election Commission of India, which has already removed 47 lakh voters from the rolls. Based on their profile, many of these individuals might have been inclined to support the Opposition, which in a way is the subaltern front in Bihar.
Controversial SIR exercise
The controversial SIR exercise led to the mass voter deletions.
As BJP leaders reminds us, the initiative is aimed at weeding out “infiltrators” or “ghuspaithiya”— a pet phrase frequently used by top figures in the ruling party, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the Election Commission of India has yet to disclose how many such “infiltrators”— evidently a dog whistle for Muslim Bangladeshis or Rohingyas—were found in Bihar. The continued official silence suggests the number is either zero or negligible.
Nonetheless, the country’s election commission—whose autonomy was compromised three years ago when the government amended the law to remove the Chief Justice of India from the panel responsible for appointing the Chief Election Commissioner and other commissioners, replacing him with a Union cabinet minister and thereby creating a government-majority selection process—has announced that the SIR exercise will now be conducted in 12 states facing the upcoming Assembly elections.
Also read: CEC Gyanesh Kumar calls Bihar voter list drive 'purification exercise'
Notably, BJP-ruled Assam has been excluded from this list.
Thus, after failing to unearth dubious Muslim foreigners in Bihar, which is geographically not far from Bangladesh, the ECI is casting its net wide to states far south like Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Are there limits to absurdity?
BJP's communal pitch
Or, is it the plain truth that by citing large-scale (Muslim) infiltration (which if true would show that the Union home ministry has failed in its duty), all that the regime is seeking to do is to raise the communal temperature in order to mobilise votes of the majority religious community in state elections across the country? It’s worth recalling that the initial signal came from the Prime Minister’s Independence Day address earlier this year, where he announced a Demographic Mission framed in stark, almost apocalyptic terms, as a response to what was described as a dangerous demographic invasion.
But Bihar has been left unimpressed with BJP’s communal pitch. There hasn’t been the smallest sign of a religious polarisation though departures from rigid caste constituencies could well materialise. Name deletions in lakhs from electoral rolls had raised apprehensions of probable law and order troubles but the peaceful 14-day long Vote Adhikar Yatra led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, covering nearly the whole state, appears to have instilled a degree of stability in the run-up to the election.
Bihar is the only major state in north India where there has never been a BJP Chief Minister although the saffron party’s organisational strength has visibly grown under the dispensation of CM Nitish Kumar.
In the BJP armoury, communal tricks come first. Since there has been no rise in the communal temperature in spite of large-scale vote deletions, it is logical to expect the BJP to use other means to get an electoral advantage. What can this be is the question.
EVM manipulations during the counting? Politically, if the BJP presses for its own chief minister, it must win enough seats.
Nitish factor
We will know when the result comes out on November 14. But it is quite clear that the steadfast refusal by Union home minister Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi to name Nitish Kumar its CM if NDA wins the election, is causing much heartburn and Bihar’s recent history shows that the current CM Nitish Kumar is quite capable of making the necessary adjustments so as to be in a place of political advantage.
Also read: Nitish Kumar’s video pitch for Bihar polls: Can he turn votes in JD(U)’s favour again?
The trouble is many in the ranks of Nitish’s traditional support blocs, including the Extremely Backward Castes, a bunch of a large number of small caste groups that make up about 36 per cent of the electorate, believe that the BJP may be planning to eject their favoured leader from consideration for the top post. And so, they are said to be already shifting their stance away from the NDA alliance.
If such a perception concretises, its ripple effects could give a different complexion to the voting exercise in spite of the Election Commission’s suspiciously partisan stance right through the Bihar poll process.
The third player
For the two decades that Nitish Kumar has been in power, Bihar has seen two rival blocs at play led by the CM himself (with the BJP) and the RJD of Lalu Prasad Yadav (now his son Tejaswi) with its Congress and Left allies. But, in this election, there is a high-profile third player too, the Jan Suraaj Party of former poll consultant Prashant Kishor.
JSP is a single party, not an alliance. Its potential is wholly unknown but its leader has attracted large crowds. Its limitation is that it is seen primarily as a party of Bihar’s upper castes and hence the upper classes.
Can a hung Assembly be visualised if the JSP wins seats in double digits? This is a consideration of a wholly new kind. If so, the key players may all be forced to re-think their post-poll strategies.
As for the BJP, its well-displayed default option is to try to purchase legislators. The party is laden with resources, being the benefactor under Modi’s leadership of the two richest companies in the country and a host of others who have poured funds into Modi’s party through the Electoral Bonds scheme.
This is partly the reason for the reluctance on the part of observers to be precise in taking a call.(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)
