Why Bihar election verdict sends out alarming signals

Was the recent Bihar Assembly election result stunning or startling?

The former is, of course, the straightforward, obvious description of the NDA win, but this will be a literalist interpretation and a travesty. It doesn’t enhance our understanding of a major occurrence that may cast a shadow on the country's politics as a whole.

The outcome has raised eyebrows among ordinary people in the state, given the sentiment on the ground before the vote. Observers commented on it and journalists felt it was too close a race to call. They were all too aware that the SIR had been implemented and its effect was impossible to predict.

Moral decay in Nitish’s governance

It was also clear that the general population in Bihar suffers deep economic deprivations. Indeed, the prevailing conditions of life in the state may, without exaggeration, be called miserable with a strong moral dimension of decay seen in the last decade of Nitish Kumar’s governance. (More of it in the second part)

The conduct of the Bihar election has set India’s polity back. Bihar is a major mainland state with a large area and population, and a history of protests and uprisings, with an active record of mass participation in the independence movement from the time Mahatma Gandhi returned to India.

Also Read: Prashant Kishor on Bihar defeat: 'Polls rigged, but no proof yet’

Large-scale vote-related political corruption, state-wide, linked to the open bribery of voters even during polling, would put to shame many a banana republic. At any rate, it was unheard of in the annals of Indian elections.

Distress call to rescue democracy

The manner of the conduct of the Bihar poll can be said to be a distress call to rescue democracy – and, of course, Bihar itself. In analogous situations - when power-wielders turn arrogant and would cross all boundaries to stay in power - some countries have needed to have internationally-supervised elections. Bihar is not quite there. India is not there. But if Bihar were a republic unto itself, then democratic conduct at election time might be at a severe discount. And then, who knows?

It is prudent to assume that the top court will allow the SIR. Not doing so after it was permitted in Bihar would raise awkward situations. But will the negatives of the Bihar experience be kept in view by the top court?

Since the intensive meddling with the voters’ list and the elimination of lakhs of voters through the questionable SIR process is the new element in the electoral equation, the bending of the polity in Bihar offers an all-India template of a possible takeover by the undeserving elsewhere too, and for that reason serves as a warning.

EC turned blind eye

It is now amply clear that the Bihar election was no minefield for the ruling NDA alliance. The BJP and its regional crony, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), were in power, and they have made a triumphant return, influencing the election through open bribery schemes even during the poll process. A benevolent Election Commission permitted this and looked away.

Also Read: Amit Shah calls SIR voter 'purification' drive, vows to deport all infiltrators

It is worth thinking about, that the assurance gained from unrolling the SIR and disadvantaging the opposition through deletions of voters who might be expected to be inclined towards it, was not deemed assurance enough. The Nitish government, in order to make doubly sure, was obliged to mount a massive campaign of bribery.

Barely four weeks before the EC announced the election dates, the state government substantially raised old-age pensions, made electricity free up to a reasonably high level of consumption, and offered monetary incentives to youth.

Disregard of Model Code of Conduct

What kicked in straightaway and continued right through the poll period - in cynical disregard of the Model Code of Conduct - was a scheme for potential women entrepreneurs with Rs 10,000 flowing into the accounts of lakhs of women. The demonstration effect on the crores of women voters can be imagined.

Large-scale vote-related political corruption, state-wide, linked to the open bribery of voters even in the period of polling, would put to shame many a banana republic

Extraordinarily, this scheme was announced a mere three days before the announcement of the polls. Coyly, the Election Commission of India took shelter behind the rubric of a “continuing” scheme. In the recent past, the ECI has stopped “continuing” schemes, as in Rajasthan when Ashok Gehlot was Chief Minister, and in Tamil Nadu earlier.

Nobody questioned 2010 Bihar results

In Bihar, it is noteworthy that in 2010 too, the NDA alliance of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the BJP had crossed the 200-mark, scoring 206 on 243 Assembly seats, a truly remarkable result. That’s a few more seats than this time around, but no one blinked in disbelief. Unsavoury allegations and accusations didn’t follow.

Also Read: Nitish 10.0: Chief minister or compromise minister? | Talking Sense With Srini

So it’s not sour grapes that questions are being raised now. This time around, in 2025, how can there not be a discussion around the role of the SIR, the only new element in the Bihar election story?

Eyes on the Supreme Court

Hearings on the tenability and legality of SIR are ongoing in the Supreme Court on a petition filed by the Association for Democratic Reforms and Others. But in recent times, the higher judiciary has tended to be regarded by the public with a degree of wariness in view of the perception that it is too mindful of the government’s sensitivities, often to the bewilderment of citizens.

It is prudent to assume that the top court will allow the SIR. Not doing so after it was permitted in Bihar would raise awkward situations. But will the negatives of the Bihar experience be kept in view by the top court?

‘Skewed’ SIR in Bihar

In Bihar, the SIR was a wholly skewed affair. Local representatives of the Election Commission did not go door-to-door for voter verification and filling up enumeration forms, as they were required to do. Voters’ forms were filled in their offices, an early phenomenon reported by well-known Hindi journalist and YouTuber Ajit Anjum, who was in his home state for coverage and knew the local conditions. For his pains, the journalist had FIRs registered against him.

Also Read: JD(U) would have been bundled up with 25 seats had it not given Rs 10,000 to women: Kishor

Also, the BLOs (Block Level Officers) turned out to be members of political parties, notably the BJP, further colouring the data on which large-scale voter deletions were approved. In dealing with the legality of the SIR, it is not clear if the Supreme Court will look into how the SIR process has worked in real life and if, in light of that, the scheme should be permitted to survive in its present form.

EC worked at frenetic pace to fulfil govt’s directive

The intent to draw up a particular scheme in Mission Mode was made public by Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the Red Fort on Independence Day this year. The express object was to unearth the “ghuspaithia” (intruders) in our midst. Within a fortnight of this significant speech, the Election Commission of India announced the drawing up of the SIR scheme for the upcoming Bihar election, and had the SIR done in one month flat.

It was nothing short of a command performance. The supposedly independent Election Commission worked at a frenetic pace to fulfil a directive of the government. We are living in extraordinary times.

Also Read: Dipankar Bhattacharya attributes ‘abnormal’ Bihar election results to 3 ‘experiments’

There is nothing on record prior to the PM’s Red Fort outing to suggest deliberations in the ECI towards a major initiative such as the SIR. The least that may have been expected was a consultation with political parties which will have to deal with the fallout.

Getting rid of “ghuspaithia” has been an article of faith for the BJP-RSS over the decades. This is a code word for members of a certain religious minority. It is a pity that the EC allowed itself to be drafted into an ideological project of the Hindutva brigade.

Nationwide SIR being bulldozed through

There are existing procedures through Special Summary Revisions to periodically update electoral rolls to take into account deaths, migrations, and new voters coming of age - and there appears to be nothing in the Representation of the People Act to warrant the introduction of a new measure like the SIR on a nationwide basis. And yet it has been bulldozed through, apparently on the basis of a regime bias, with the EC falling in line.

Whatever may have transpired on the ground in Bihar, the EC’s stand appears to be that no voter complained of being unfairly deleted, ergo, there was nothing wrong with the exercise.

Will the top court be seized of the practical complexities encountered in the implementation of SIR in Bihar, the guinea pig state for the purpose?

Whatever may have transpired on the ground in Bihar, the EC’s stand appears to be that no voter complained of being unfairly deleted, ergo, there was nothing wrong with the exercise. Echoes of this were also heard in the questions asked of the petitioners’ counsels by the Supreme Court judges last Wednesday (November 2).

Ridiculous assumption

The upshot of this is quite ridiculous, namely: If a victim does not report a crime, the criminal may be at liberty to rest in the belief that he has committed no crime and that no suffering has ensued! The crime, in fact, is then neatly effaced from the plane of reality in an enactment of magical realism. Hindi has a lovely expression for such situations, when something vanishes, as if by magic, as the onlooker gapes in awe. It is called “chhoo mantar”!

Also Read: Jan Suraaj alleges ₹14,000-crore World Bank funds diverted for Bihar elections

The Supreme Court may wish to be mindful of such trickery, and in its wisdom, be cognisant of ground realities - that in rural India, especially in poor and backward parts of the country, voters are typically not in a state of alertness and preparedness to run around to lodge complaints of this nature. They are more apt to be resigned to their fate and trudge back home dejected on discovering they cannot vote. And it’s not as if hordes of names are deleted in every village, providing a large-scale demonstration effect to goad voters into complaining.

India’s EC no longer world’s envy

It is clear that at the centre of the grave distortions was the Election Commission of India. The poll panel, charged with the conduct and superintendence of elections in the world’s largest democracy has a cross to carry - that it is no longer a free entity, a vital and autonomous esteemed national institution charged with the mandate to deliver free and fair elections in a republic that was in many ways the envy of the world in spite of its poverty and backwardness.

It ceased to be independent of the Union government since December 2023 when it was brought under the Government of India’s direct and overt control through the government’s power of appointment, when a crucial change to the relevant law was made by the Modi dispensation.

Also Read: EC explains mystery over 3 lakh ‘extra voters’ in Bihar

The Chief Justice of India, whose presence on the selection committee for the Chief Election Commissioner and other Commissioners ensured fair play and neutrality, was excised from the process. After this dubious change, it is clear that the chief election commissioner and other election commissioners are hand-picked by the PM or his groupies. They are now no different from other senior officials of the regime. The PM is now their master, not the people of India.

‘Ballot stuffing’?

More careful tabulations are needed - than we have at present - to establish the full extent of the assault through SIR on the typical Bihar voter which occurred under the watchful eye of the NDA government, with the 'secular', 'socialist' Nitish turning not a hair. In the BJP’s company, with the SIR on the anvil, he knew he was going to benefit.

But some hints of discrepancies exist. Upon the completion of the SIR process in Bihar, the Chief Election Commissioner himself gave out the figure that 7.42 crore voters were found eligible. However, it appears that eventually 7.45 crore voters - an additional three lakh - had been cleared to vote. But this was not made public, giving room for disquiet. The implied assumption is that of ballot stuffing.

ECI-GOI nexus

The CEC has not called the media to announce the new data on eligible voters. But anonymous Election Commission sources have spoken of the higher figure in off-the-record briefings to the media. The Government of India’s Press Information Bureau also gave out the same higher figure when the Congress party raised doubts that three lakh votes were surreptitiously added to the list of eligible electors.

Also Read: Rahul, Kharge review Bihar election rout as Congress doubles down on ‘vote chori’ claim

What business is it of the PIB, a government body in no way connected to the EC, to speak on behalf of the Election Commission? If anything, this highlights the ECI-GOI nexus, confirming that the poll body is no longer able to act independently of the government.

(To be continued)

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