With 13 dead in Delhi’s worst attack since 2014, the Modi govt faces rising pressure at home and abroad as investigations point to a possible terror network
There is no doubt that the November 10 evening blast near the Red Fort would be a source of considerable embarrassment to the Narendra Modi government, which takes pride in its strong commitment and performance on national security.
The death toll has reached 13, and around 20 persons have suffered injuries. This is the first such incident in the country’s capital after Prime Minister Modi assumed office in May 2014.
The investigation into the case has been handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA). That's an indication that the government has concluded the blast was a terrorist act, for the NIA’s mandate does not cover ordinary criminal activities.
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The political leadership led by Modi has assured the people that the blast will be fully and energetically investigated and that the conspirators behind this heinous act will face the might of the law.
No pointing of fingures
Modi and other ministers, including Home Minister Amit Shah, have not pointed fingers at anyone. The law enforcement institutions, including the Delhi police, have not made any official comment so far. Nor have any of the investigative or forensic agencies.
There have been media reports quoting ‘sources’, but in a matter as serious as this, which has implications for national security and cannot come under the rubric of merely criminal activity, no implications can or should be drawn by a commentator on the basis of such media reports.
Faridabad Police Commissioner Satendra Kumar Gupta gave a media briefing on November 10 afternoon, some four or five hours before the blast. It would be appropriate to quote the All India Radio’s account of what Gupta stated.
Earlier events
AIR noted: “Faridabad and Jammu and Kashmir police conducted a joint raid and arrested a Kashmiri doctor in Faridabad. A large quantity of explosives was recovered from the doctor’s home in Dhauj. Dr Mujjabal works at Al Falah University in Faridabad. Police Commissioner Satendra Kumar Gupta told the media in a press conference today that at the time of the arrest, police recovered over 350 kg of inflammable material, live cartridges, magazines, timers, and circuit devices from the Kashmiri doctor’s home, which could potentially be used in explosives or terrorist activities.
The Delhi blast has occurred at a time when Operation Sindoor has technically not been ended by the government. It is also a sensitive time in India-US ties, for Trump said two days ago that the two countries are getting close to a deal.
"He added that another person was arrested in this operation from Saharanpur, Uttar Pradesh. This joint operation has been ongoing for the past 15 days and is still ongoing. He added that a team of forensic experts has been called in to examine the recovered material. The Police Commissioner stated that preliminary investigations revealed that the network was active interstate, and several suspects have been identified".
Two points may be added to the AIR’s account based on the video recording of Gupta’s media briefing. Responding to a question, he revealed that the Al Falah doctor was arrested 9 to 10 days earlier. That implies that he was in police custody since the beginning of November. In his reply to another question, Gupta said that one person was absconding and that investigations were on.
Naturally, the NIA will now go into all aspects of the network and the blast, especially the identity of its perpetrator.
Coping with Trump
The Delhi blast has occurred at a time when Operation Sindoor has technically not been ended by the government. It is also a sensitive time in India-US ties, for American President Donald Trump said two days ago that the two countries are getting close to a deal.
News agencies quoted him as also saying, "We're getting a fair deal, just a fair trade deal”. He went on to add, "We're making a deal with India, a much different deal than we had in the past”.
While the Modi government has attempted to insulate the Indian export sector from the 50% duty imposed on Indian exports to the US, the fact is that the continuation of this tariff rate has harmed the Indian economy.
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India has severely curtailed the import of Russian oil, but Trump has kept up the pressure — he has not removed the 25% tariff, which he had slapped (as part of 50%) on account of India's purchase of Russian oil. In this situation, Modi would not like to take any step that would annoy Trump.
It has to be recalled that Trump has said over 40 times that it was his mediation that brought a ‘ceasefire’ between India and Pakistan in May. The Modi government has, however, maintained that it accepted a cessation of hostilities after Pakistan appealed to India to do so. At the same time, the Modi government has not publicly commented on Trump’s repeated claims on this issue.
India-Pak tension
The great powers have condemned the Delhi blast, but they too would not like another round of armed hostilities between India and Pakistan. This is because armed action between two nuclear countries raises their deepest fears of a nuclear exchange. This is unrealistic, as the leaders of India and Pakistan do not have the desire to escalate any situation to such a level.
What the international community needs to do, and it has not done so effectively so far, is to pressure Pakistan to fold up its terrorist enterprise against India.
However, what the international community needs to do, and it has not done so effectively so far, is to pressure Pakistan to fold up its terrorist enterprise against India.
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On its part, the Modi government has stated that any terrorist attack from Pakistan will be considered an act of war. The doctor arrested in Faridabad is of Kashmiri origin. Pakistan’s intrusive activities, which have been going on in Jammu and Kashmir for over three and a half decades, are well known.
There is therefore a public perception of the links of Pakistani terrorist groups and the nation's intelligence agencies with individuals and groups in Jammu and Kashmir and also elsewhere in India, but particularly in the UT of Jammu and Kashmir.
Pressure on Centre
The Delhi blast will bring these perceptions to the fore again. The Modi government will have to deal with these perceptions. The Opposition parties will also keep up the pressure on the government on the blast.
The question of how to deal with the fallout of the blast therefore poses several dilemmas for the Modi government. It will navigate its path through contending pressures. No course of action it decides to adopt will be without political, diplomatic, or economic consequences.
It has been reported that the Cabinet Committee on Security will meet shortly. It can be expected that a government statement will come out after the meeting. It is likely to be cautious in substance, even if it reiterates India’s positions on terrorism in strong language.
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Meanwhile, Pakistan continues to blame India and Afghanistan for instigating and supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP)’s attacks in that country. The talks in Istanbul between Pakistan and Afghanistan, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, contrary to expectations, have collapsed.
Pakistan’s real problems lie with alienating Afghanistan and its fundamental political and ethnic schisms. But Pakistani erroneous perceptions of India’s supposed role act as a motive for its actions. The Modi government cannot ignore all this, too.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the article are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
