The seeds of the present crisis were sown in the immediate aftermath of the flattering win of the Congress party in the May 2023 Assembly elections
The quintessential Karnataka voter is unforgiving. S/he has a track record of rejecting any government that indulges in infighting. The Congress has learnt it the hard way in the past. So have the BJP and the Janata Dal. Yet here is a situation in which two top leaders of the Congress government are embarrassing themselves – indulging in a bitter struggle for the top chair.
When the Congress goes to polls in 2028 (assuming it survives until then), it is going to be hard for Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar to convince the Karnataka voter to re-elect it back to power. Today, one is the chief minister and the other is his deputy. Tomorrow, it could be different.
More than whether Siddaramaiah will remain on top or Shivakumar will get the post of chief minister, the 100-crore question is how the Congress 'high command' in New Delhi will resolve the dispute. If Siddaramaiah continues as chief minister, Shivakumar is bound to be livid. If Shivakumar replaces Siddaramaiah, Siddaramaiah's anger can become all-consuming.
Seeds of crisis were sown in May 2023
The seeds of the present crisis were sown in the immediate aftermath of the flattering win of the Congress party in the May 2023 Assembly elections. Having secured a supremely comfortable majority, getting 135 of the 224 seats, both Siddaramaiah a.k.a Siddu and Shivakumar a.k.a DK staked claim for the top job.
To be fair, both had contributed to their party's victory. In the months preceding the election, the two had buried their extant rivalry and put up a solid show of unity. Siddaramaiah has a reputation as a mass leader, who can hold the crowd enthralled. And, he is popular within the party with most legislators respecting and backing him. The five-guarantee scheme, which swayed the voters, too, was largely Siddaramaiah’s brainchild.
Also Read: Karnataka: Siddaramaiah- DKS meet over breakfast; truce unlikely
Shivakumar, on the other hand, comes with a reputation of being a great organiser and strategist. He started working towards the election at least three years prior to May 2023. He meticulously rebuilt the Congress units down to the village level across the state with the result that the party was fully geared to fight the election. And, to top it all, he predicted that the Congress would get 136 seats during a TV interview, and got it bang on.
Power-sharing agreement
When the Congress reaped the fruits of its positive campaign by winning in such a resounding manner, none expected the two leaders to make a dash for the chief minister’s chair. Now comes the interesting twist. After a standoff between the two for nearly a week, Shivakumar gave in peacefully, and Siddaramaiah was sworn in as the chief minister.
Also Read: Karnataka crisis: Is Congress High Command in a weak spot?
The question, even at the time, was: how did the sudden resolution come about? What made Shivakumar agree to be deputy chief minister? There were no clear answers. Over time, party insiders privately said both had agreed to a power-sharing agreement as per which Siddaramaiah would be chief minister for the first two-and-a-half years and Shivakumar for the subsequent period in a five-year term.
Congress leadership’s mistake
The mistake that the Congress leadership made at the time was not publicising this purported arrangement. There’s much speculation over this today. Some say that Shivakumar was promised chief ministership after two-and-a-half years, without Siddaramaiah being apprised about this. Going by the current sequence of events, this seems to be the most likely goof-up.
For, Shivakumar’s supporters keep harping on the “word” given, and that Siddaramaiah should honour it. But Siddaramaiah continues to say he will continue to remain chief minister for the full term, and that the only “word” he has given is to the people of Karnataka to ensure a stable government and fulfil the five promised guarantees.
Also Read: What’s driving Siddaramaiah-DKS tussle, and how Congress plans to resolve it?
In 2023, when the dispute over leadership was resolved, Congress president and fellow-Kannadiga Mallikarjuna Kharge was largely given the credit for successfully playing the peacemaker. If true, then the blame now for the mess-up should also go to him, as it leaves one to conclude that Kharge did not bother to formalise it – by keeping the two claimants on the same page.
In effect, Kharge simply appears to have pushed the basic problem to another date. And, that date has arrived. So, what solution will Kharge come up with now? The Congress president has publicly stated that “the high command will resolve it”. But, who is the high command? It’s obviously the Gandhi family.
Only Sonia Gandhi can resolve the problem
In 2023, the Gandhis – Sonia and Rahul – cleared the deal. Now, the situation for the Congress is so dire that it is probably only Sonia Gandhi who can bring about a resolution. The reason is straightforward – both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar have in the past professed great respect and gratitude for her.
In the case of Siddaramaiah, in the run-up to the 2013 election, he was viewed as an “outsider” by state Congress leaders since he joined the party only in 2006 – after quitting the Janata Dal.
Even as a battle was brewing between party loyalists and the so-called outsider, it was Sonia Gandhi who personally was said to have assured Siddaramaiah he would be chief minister if the Congress won that election. When the party did win, Sonia honoured her promise and he became the chief minister – completing a full term until 2018.
Also Read: Cong high command will act at the ‘right time’ on Karnataka power tussle: Kharge
A senior Congress legislator BR Patil recently went on record saying it was he who introduced Siddaramaiah to Sonia Gandhi. After that “his (Siddaramaiah’s) fate was good, so he got the position,” reports said, quoting Patil.
In the case of Shivakumar, when he was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and lodged in Delhi’s Tihar jail in August 2019 in an alleged money-laundering case, Sonia Gandhi personally visited him in prison.
A beleaguered Shivakumar responded emotionally when the Congress won the 2023 elections. A Deccan Herald news report, quoting him “sobbing and almost choking” said, “I can’t forget Sonia Gandhi visiting me in jail... when BJP people put me in jail.”
Intense power struggle
There’s no undermining the extreme sensitivity of the situation, given the intensity of the power struggle between Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar.
In 2019, when a section of Congress and Janata Dal(S) legislators defected from the Congress-JD(S) coalition government to the BJP, there were allegations within the Congress that associates of Siddaramaiah had engineered it. The reason attributed was the bitterness between him and the then-coalition chief minister HD Kumaraswamy. This also indicates the strong hold of Siddaramaiah within the Congress party, and his ability to rock the boat.
More recently, a few months after the current government was sworn in, reports alleged irregularities by Siddaramaiah’s family in the purchase of sites under a Mysore Urban Development Authority (MUDA) scheme. Investigations cleared the chief minister and his family of any wrongdoing. But the publicising of the purported misdemeanour was alleged to be the handiwork of DK Shivakumar’s supporters – an indication that he or his backers can make life uncomfortable for any party leader.
Also Read: Mass leader vs organiser: Why Karnataka Congress needs both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar
In both cases, none has provided any credible evidence to prove the involvement of either of the two leaders. But as they say, in politics, there is no smoke without fire. The instances, however, indicate that subterranean rivalry continuesbetween the two leaders and/or their supporters.
The task before the Congress 'high command' is therefore not easy. A minor slip-up can cost the party heavily – either in the form of a mid-term collapse, or a rejection when elections are held. The next few days, needless to add, will in all likelihood chronicle the fate of this Congress government.
