True to type, the Modi government appears to prefer appeasing Trump rather than confronting the mercurial US president
United States President Donald Trump, in his eagerness to end the Russia-Ukraine war, may have actually ended up turning the conflict into a much more complicated mess.
From Trump’s boast of ending the war in “one day” to now adopting a threatening tone, he increasingly exudes desperation amid the sobering realisation that not everyone will succumb to his diktat.
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Caught in the deadly crossfire is India, which has now been warned against trading with Russia and on which Trump has imposed 25 per cent tariff plus as yet an unknown quantum of penalty. For New Delhi, which was running with the hare and hunting with the hound, Trump’s turnaround is turning out to be hugely disruptive and loss of face.
Trump’s friendly veneer is off
India’s import of crude from Russia, which was seen as one key factor among others that was keeping Vladimir Putin afloat, has always been a red rag for the NATO countries in Europe. Trump’s second term as president and his seemingly pro-Russian moves in ending the war with Ukraine, for a time, saved India from having to take hard decisions regarding its ties with Moscow.
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But now, Trump’s friendly veneer is off to the extent where he has controversially bracketed India and Russia together as “dead economies”. True to type, the Modi government appears to have quickly decided to take Trump seriously, preferring to appease rather than confront the mercurial president.
Reports, quoting the Reuters news agency, have said that India’s state refiners — Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical — had not picked up Russian crude in the past week or so. In response, Trump has described this as a “good step”.
Not wanting to appear pusillanimous, the Modi government has reacted to these reports and Trump’s appreciation claiming New Delhi’s energy purchases are based on “market forces and national interest”.
Impact of stopping Russian oil imports
If the reports over stoppage of Russian oil imports are true, it’s not going to be easy for New Delhi as India’s move will hurt Putin. Russia, which in the last 20 years viewed the changing Indian alignment towards the US and its western allies with suspicion, could well retaliate in other ways that could hurt New Delhi. Clearly, India finds itself having to make a Hobson’s choice in its foreign policy – something that was bound to happen sooner than later, if the Russia-Ukraine war did not end.
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Since Russia’s attack and subsequent invasion of Ukraine starting February 24, 2022, the war has turned into a prolonged conflict that defies an easy resolution. The conflagration has, for one, altered the map of Ukraine with Russian troops occupying a vast swathe of land along the eastern border, all the way from north to south.
One of Trump’s key errors has been to overplay his hand. While few would fault him for working to bring back peace, his over-the-top bullying, thinly disguised as diplomacy, has turned out to be counter-productive.
For the war to end, Ukraine has demanded that Russian troops pull back to the pre-war position, even demanding that locations like Crimea that were snatched by Moscow in 2014 be returned. Putin is adamant that his troops will not move back from any of the occupied areas as, according to him, this would be the buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine in the interests of his country’s security.
Ukraine has managed to stand up to Russia and resist Moscow’s attack, only because of assistance from the US and other NATO countries. In effect, the Russian military is taking on US-led western allies, not just Ukraine.
Trump’s accusations against Putin
Trump calculated that his past friendship with Putin and the dependence of Ukraine on US aid would make it possible for him to force a truce between the two warring nations. The entire world saw an unvarnished version of Trump’s arm-twisting manoeuvres at the White House at the end of February, just over a month after he occupied office for his second term.
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A visibly shocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who, under duress, protested weakly left for home shaken by Trump and Vice-President J D Vance’s bullying in front of the world’s media. Trump followed up by holding back weapons’ shipment and financial aid to Ukraine.
But, smarting under the insult in front of the world, Ukraine in early June pulled off a daring series of coordinated drone attacks across key military bases deep inside Russian territory. Called Operation Spider Web, the attack damaged several Russian bombers. This, even as negotiations were ongoing in Turkey’s Istanbul. Whatever chances were there of Putin softening vapourised following this attack. Since then a bemused Russia has come back strongly striking targets across Ukraine with ferocity using its vast array of drones and missiles.
For Trump, his failure to end the war thus far has been most frustrating. From fawning over Putin calling him a friend, he is now accusing Putin of “bullshit” and Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine as “disgusting”.
Why Trump turned belligerent
One of Trump’s key errors has been to overplay his hand. While few would fault him for working to bring back peace, his over-the-top bullying, thinly disguised as diplomacy, has turned out to be counter-productive.
Trump, who talked peace and promised US voters during his election campaign to reduce American involvement and end the conflict, is now potentially taking his country and everyone else headlong into the world’s next big war. Unless sense dawns on him or something changes for the better, in the geopolitical equation.
Most importantly, the US president has not been able to read the mind of his so-called friend Putin. If Trump had, by now, managed to end the war he would have walked away with all the credit and, maybe, even a Nobel Prize. But, for the section of Russians, exemplified by Putin, who have still not reconciled to the demise of the erstwhile Soviet Union, the outcome would have once and for all sealed the dominance of the US over Russia.
Putin would surely not want to see the US winning another existential war against Russia. After all, he went to war for precisely the reason that the US and its allies in NATO were stamping their dominance over Russia by agreeing to absorb Ukraine as a member of the western military alliance.
No wonder Trump has turned belligerent, shedding his dovish moves for a hawkish option. One July 29, he gave a 10-day ultimatum to Putin to sign a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, or face increasing sanctions and tariffs. In response, Russia has blandly stated it prefers peace talks with Ukraine, indicating it will not be browbeaten by Trump’s threats.
Russia’s warning to US of direct war
Trump has already resumed military aid to Ukraine including the high-end Patriot missiles and promised even more active help than earlier. According to reports quoting Trump, it “is everything; it’s Patriots, it’s all of them — it’s a full complement”. This translates into air defence systems, missiles and ammunition, say US officials.
Amidst this, former Russian president and deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev retaliated on social media warning of a direct war between his country and the US. In response, Trump has ordered two nuclear submarines to be placed at “appropriate locations” in the vicinity of the war-torn region.
Zelenskyy, when the war broke out in 2022, had pleaded with the US to engage more directly with a view to pushing back Putin. The previous Joe Biden administration had desisted from the move as it feared it could potentially turn the conflict into another global war, with deadly consequences.
Trump, who talked peace and promised US voters during his election campaign to reduce American involvement and end the conflict, is now potentially taking his country and everyone else headlong into the world’s next big war. Unless sense dawns on him or something changes for the better, in the geopolitical equation.
