Indian missile strikes on Pakistan open up fearsome possibilities

Unlike the post-Pulwama surgical strike, where Indian military aircraft physically entered Pakistan to drop bombs on a terrorist camp in Balakot, this time around the missile strike, code-named “Operation Sindoor”, was executed without violating the neighbouring country’s airspace.

Will Pakistan respond?

Though India has termed the strike as non-escalatory, it is now up to Pakistan’s reaction, whether it will remain in the realm of a missile strike or whether the situation can turn into a full-fledged war. Islamabad has already said they will retaliate at a place and time of its choosing. The situation is therefore fraught with unforeseeable consequences.

In the previous Balakot instance, the then Imran Khan government in Pakistan chose to play it down, after a brief skirmish that saw an Indian fighter downed followed by the arrest of the pilot Abhinandan Varthaman. Khan had released the pilot, a gesture that helped bring down the tension with no further military action on either side.

Now, with a more belligerent Army chief in Pakistan and a civilian government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif appearing to be controlled by the military, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Pakistan goes for a tit-for-tat response. In which case, the situation can potentially go out of control.

Also read: How two Asims brought their country Pakistan to the brink of war

Globally, though nations including the US, and even Pakistan’s allies like China have condemned the Pahalgam attacks, they have pressed upon India to exercise restraint and not trigger a war. The UN Security Council too in a special meeting said the same.

However, the Modi government has gone ahead and used missiles to target what it calls terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Punjab, rather than resort to a conventional attack. Reports are coming in of deaths and casualties, following the missile strikes.

The deadly missile strikes

In recent times, the US has used missiles against the Houthis in Yemen while Israel has similarly done so against the Hezbollah in Lebanon, causing widespread deaths and destruction.

Missiles are as deadly as any conventional weapons, or even deadlier, and can inflict grave damage. In the case of Yemen, the Houthis, a few days ago fired missiles into Israel, straight into Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport where it ended up hitting its perimeter causing a huge crater. Multiple US strikes into Yemen earlier struck civilian areas, killing hundreds of people.

The interesting aspect of India and Pakistan is that both have common allies who do not want to see the two get into a war. In earlier instances, during the 2001 Parliament attack and later, the Mumbai terror attacks in 2008, India almost went to war with Pakistan. But the George W Bush administration in the US – in 2001 and in 2008 – prevailed upon the Indian government not to go ahead with the military option.

Since then there have been surgical strikes on Pakistan in response to terrorist attacks in India – mostly one-off reactions – that didn’t escalate into a war.

Wars are expensive

Now, the ball is in Pakistan’s court and the denouement depends on how and whether it plans to take on India. As of the moment, it has declared it will retaliate. Going by the Indian government’s advisory on civil defence drills and related preparations along the border and along the interiors, it may well be preparing for a longer term conflagration against Pakistan.

Also read: Operation Sindoor I 'It's a more assertive and riskier move, signalling a major shift'

Unlike conventional wars, targeting each other through missiles can stretch the conflict over an extended period of time, as it does not strain resources of either country beyond a point.

Traditional wars, especially between countries like India and Pakistan, had a short shelf-life of a few days, or a few weeks at the most, as wars are expensive and the two cannot sustain them for long.

The 1965 war lasted around 50 days while the 1971 conflict ended in 13 days. The Kargil war of 1999, considered a limited conflict, was on for nearly three months.

Also, given the nature of relationship between the big powers and the two South Asian neighbours, none has so far directly got involved in militarily supporting either India or Pakistan during any of the previous wars that were fought in the subcontinent – 1965, 1971 and 1999.

If the Iran-Iraq war went on for eight years, it was because of direct US and the then Soviet involvement in militarily funding and sending equipment to the two warring countries. Even in the case of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war that has been going on for over three years, it has been possible only due to heavy military involvement by US-led Western forces backing Ukraine and China supporting Russia even if covertly and in the face of official denials.

Another difference between the missile usage by Israel and the US against Yemen, Lebanon or Iran is the distance and military capability. While Yemen and Iran are a few thousand miles far from Israel, Lebanon is in the throes of its own economic crisis and militarily divided between Hezbollah and the nation’s standing army.

For the US, it is convenient to use its vast array of missiles against Yemen from a distance as it is not in immediate danger of getting hit itself.

Israel has successfully targeted Iran and managed to stave off retaliatory strikes due to its superior air missile defence systems. If Iran and Israel had been neighbours, the situation would have been vastly different, as Iran is no pushover militarily.

Also read: Pak PM Sharif terms Indian strikes on terror targets as 'act of war', vows to respond

But, India and Pakistan are neighbours sharing a long border. If the current situation turns into a missile war the damage that can be caused to either can be significant. Though on paper, Pakistan is less powerful than India in terms of military personnel and equipment, it is still a force to reckon with.

It is too early to know what Indian military strategists have planned and how they think the situation will unfold. The next few days, or weeks, will make that clear.