A section of Trump supporters wanted him to attack Iran but others said that he has always been against the US getting involved in foreign wars
Israel attacked Iran with massive aerial strikes on June 13 morning. Its announced objective was to eliminate any possibility of Iran making nuclear weapons. Iran responded with ballistic missile attacks on Israel.
The aerial war continues and neither country has shown any inclination to de-escalate. While it appears that Iran will be willing to end the armed hostilities Israel is not. It is not willing to listen to India, and what many other countries want, that both countries should follow the path of diplomacy to resolve their differences.
Test of Indian diplomacy
The war between Israel and Iran is a great test of Indian diplomacy because it has good relations and definite interests in both countries. More importantly, India does not want the war to spread and impact the Gulf countries. About 90 lakh Indians live and work in these countries. The remittances of these Indians are important for the Indian economy.
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Besides, India has other important security and economic interests in the region. India has a growing place in regional diplomacy and its power is becoming recognised. However, it is not in a position to affect the course of events regarding the Israel-Iran war. Only one country can make an impact on it and that is the United States. Hence, the eyes of the world are on US President Donald Trump and everyone is waiting for what he would do or not do.
Trump has made it clear that he will not allow Iran to make nuclear weapons. Indeed, it can be said with certainty that no country in the world wants Iran to possess nuclear weapons. On its part, Iran has long stated that its nuclear programme is entirely for peaceful purposes and that it has no intention to make nuclear weapons.
Targeting nuclear facilities
However, many countries do not believe in Iran. Israel has been at the forefront of these anti-Iran countries. Israel believes that Iran has the capability and the desire to make nuclear weapons. Its programme to do so is very advanced. Iran also possesses ballistic missiles which can deliver these weapons over long distances. It has demonstrated its missile capability in this conflict. All this convinced Israel that it had no alternative but to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear facilities.
While it has damaged some important Iranian facilities such as that at Natanz it cannot easily damage, leave alone destroy, the Iranian uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. This is because the Fordow facility is built deep in the mountains. Only the US has the bombs that are large enough and have the power to penetrate the mountainside to damage and destroy the Fordow nuclear enrichment plant.
Trump was indicating with his usual bombastic language that he would order US forces to act against Iran. It appeared that the US bombing of Iran was about to begin. Indeed, that was the impression that the world got because Trump left the G-7 summit in Canada a day earlier than scheduled. In Washington, he convened his principal advisors. While he was debating the Iranian issue within his government a split had developed among his supporters. Some of them wanted Trump to attack Iran but others said that he has always been against the US getting involved in foreign wars and that he should follow his non-interventionist instincts.
Trump’s wait-and-see mode
A couple of days ago, Trump said that he would make a decision within two weeks on what to do with Iran. At the same time, his determination for Iran not getting a nuclear weapon remains firm.
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Trump’s decision to wait has naturally disappointed Israel. It wants him to order the bombing of Fordow and other Iranian nuclear facilities. However, the US pause has led other countries to explore if a diplomatic path could be found to resolve the issue. A meeting was held between the Iranian foreign minister and those of France, Britain and Germany to explore diplomatic solutions in Geneva on June 20.
The Iranian minister took the position that his country would not go in for another round of talks with the US as long as Israel’s bombing continued. As of now, that does not seem possible for if Israel stops it would mean a victory for Iran. What is more likely is that Israel will try to explore military options for making Fordow ineffective. What is even more possible is that it will try every means to get Trump to enter the war.
US' entry to escalate war
Till now the aerial war has been confined to Israel and Iran. But if the US begins bombing Iran it will inevitably spread. This increase in its scope will include (1) Iran using its short and medium-range missiles against US interests in the region; (2) despite Shia-Sunni divide, demonstrations throughout the Islamic world against the US; (3) Islamic states that have till now only criticised Israel but not sought to help Iran in any way may come under pressure from their people to help Iran materially even it is token help; (4) energy supplies to the world from the Gulf states that pass the Straits of Hormuz may get impeded if Iran takes action to try to stop shipping through Hormuz; (5) provide a greater opening to China to intervene in the region than it has done till now.
These factors will be weighing with Trump but on the other hand, he has to stop Iran from making the bomb. Hence, if he comes to the conclusion that the only way is to finish its nuclear facilities, he will take the risk and do so. In my view, he is likely to go ahead with the bombing because his priority is to end the Iranian nuclear programme. Trump’s greater challenge will be to locate and seize the fissile material that Iran would have certainly stored.
Eyeing regime change
The Israelis and many in the US and Europe want regime change in Iran. They feel that Iran is under the Mullahs who are anti-West and a democratic system should be established there which would be more modern.
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The problem with this thought is that there are no political forces or parties who can supplant the current Iranian system which was established in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini after the Shah of Iran was ousted through a people’s uprising. Since then, the current system dominated by the Mullahs has ensured that it does not allow any rival system to develop. And, Iran has never known true democracy. Another problem is that even if a new system is established, after a period of great turmoil in Iran, it is unlikely to give up the country’s quest for a nuclear weapon.
Trump has no easy choices on Iran.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
