Reactivating SAARC would be possible only if the original mandate for decision-making is changed from consensus to a vote by majority
The BRICS summit this weekend, and the SCO meet that concluded recently, among other things, bring into sharp focus the reducing influence of India in these forums. In both, China now dominates, by all accounts. Where does this leave India?
The one multilateral organisation that India had some say and could potentially lead, or dominate, was the SAARC group – comprising nations in the South Asian region. But that is in a veritable comatose state since New Delhi’s pullout of the last summit in 2016 in Islamabad, following the terrorist attack at Uri on an Indian Army brigade headquarters on the border with Pakistan. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan too pulled out, leading to the effective cancellation of the summit.
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The continuing state of hostility between India and Pakistan is mainly responsible for the SAARC’s plight. But, was it politically astute to give up on SAARC as the group had immense potential to make South Asian presence felt across the globe, besides working as a binding factor in the region. It's not yet formally dissolved but, for all practical purposes, the group’s activities, barring a few, remain in limbo.
Bangladesh's interest in reviving SAARC
SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is of particular interest given the near-breakdown of the international world order caused by the US’s unilateralism, that has triggered its war with Iran. Not to forget US President Donald Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs that has affected the world, including the eight countries of the SAARC. Amidst this, Russia’s war with Ukraine continues with serious implications for the world’s economy.
Interestingly, during the first press conference when Bangladesh’s Tarique Rahman took over as prime minister earlier this year, he alluded to SAARC and expressed an interest in its revival. Dhaka under former prime minister Ziaur Rahman, the current prime minister’s father, had incidentally played a key role in the launch of SAARC 41 years ago.
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It would be in New Delhi’s interest to revive SAARC, notwithstanding its hostility with Islamabad. What had brought the activities of the group to a dead halt was a clause in its constitution that stated all decisions had to be taken by consensus. This effectively neutralised the group as no consensus could be found between India and Pakistan on crucial issues.
Reactivating the group would be possible only if the original mandate is changed from consensus to that of a majority – in all decisions. This way, the group can continue to work, despite India and Pakistan standing against each other.
After all, there are smaller countries in the neighbourhood who would want to be heard, and leverage their interests, through the group. Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu too recently echoed Tarique Rahman’s plea to revive SAARC.
From the near-dead status it is in now, SAARC cannot be easily resurrected unless someone does the heavy-lifting. Given India’s size and stature within the region, it’s clearly in New Delhi’s interests to do that
The India-Pakistan factor apart, ground realities belie the potential of SAARC, but they don’t seem insurmountable. For example, the SAFTA, or the free trade agreement among the SAARC countries has been signed and in place but not yet effective. High tariffs and complicated export-import duty structures have prevented the FTA from being successful.
A look at the neighbouring ASEAN grouping in South-East Asia gives an idea where the SAFTA stands. In 2023, intra-ASEAN trade stood at nearly 22 per cent of all trade done by individual nations in the group. In comparison, SAARC was slightly less than six per cent. But the existence of SAFTA and its potential is still an attractive proposition – provided the nations in the group see it that way, and collectively resolve to sort out their debilitating differences.
Who can resurrect SAARC?
It is not entirely unthinkable that a forum like SAARC could be a platform which could help sort out some of the pressing differences between the two neighbours India and Pakistan. As a popular saying goes, diplomacy is “the art of the possible”.
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From the near-dead status it is in now, SAARC cannot be easily resurrected unless someone does the heavy-lifting. Given India’s size and stature within the region, it’s clearly in New Delhi’s interests to do that. This would require strategic rethinking as India has traditionally had reservations over SAARC – mainly to do with Pakistan. Governments in New Delhi have also been wary of a banding together of other nations in the region which could potentially stymie its interests.
But, the positives of an active SAARC could be beneficial all round, including India. To be part of a regional grouping is to increase New Delhi’s foreign policy options. It could restore some of the lost ground in terms of bilateral ties, say with Bangladesh and Nepal.
New Delhi’s relationship, particularly with Dhaka, has been fraught in recent times and so too its equations with Nepal. Sri Lanka too, in its attempts to play a balancing role, over the last two decades has politely re-balanced its ties with New Delhi, proffering more space to Beijing.
Maldives has had a yo-yo relationship with India, sometimes close and other times distant depending on who governs that country.
No SAARC summit since 2014
Overall, SAARC can restore a sense of unity among the South Asian nations, despite the fractured ties between India and Pakistan, something that is sorely missing for at least a decade now. The last SAARC summit was held in 2014 at Kathmandu, the year the Modi government came to power. Since then, New Delhi has shown more interest in BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation).
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BIMSTEC, the grouping comprising South Asian nations (excluding Pakistan) while having Myanmar and Thailand on board, was expected to be an alternative to SAARC – without the headache for New Delhi to have to deal with Islamabad. But, this grouping too has not much headway as Myanmar which was to be the bridge between South Asia and South-East Asia has been caught up in its internal turmoil. This has rendered BIMSTEC ineffective, as a connectivity first group.
Even if hypothetically Myanmar is able to resolve its problems and becomes stable, BIMSTEC may not be as effective given the varying geopolitical demands of the two Asian regions. SAARC, on the other hand, is a much more cogent group with members who can easily identify with each other in terms of politico-strategic requirements.
