Siddaramaiah’s assertion and Shivakumar’s quiet compliance on the issue of chief ministership appear too perfect and choreographed to be taken at face value
Will he? Won’t he? This is the question that has haunted the Congress in Karnataka since it returned to power in May 2023 with a huge majority. The question has been answered for the time being, with Siddaramaiah asserting he will continue as chief minister for the full term, until 2028. And his deputy DK Shivakumar has concurred, stating he has no other option but to play along.
Focus on stability
Siddaramaiah’s assertion and Shivakumar’s quiet compliance on the issue of chief ministership appear too perfect and choreographed to be taken at face value.
Also read: Efforts may fail, but not prayers, says DK Shivakumar amid CM change buzz in Karnataka
The real issue is therefore one of stability. It may be entirely possible that, given the threat from the BJP and the past experience of defections within the Congress, the party strategists may have decided to complete the transition as smoothly as possible taking care not to destabilise the government. It is difficult to comprehend Shivakumar giving up his ambition to become chief minister at this juncture.
Among the various possibilities, the chief minister could suo motu offer to step down citing personal reasons and propose Shivakumar’s candidature for the top job. This way, Siddaramaiah can pre-empt any negative reactions within his section of supporters and the party will better its chances of completing its full term in office.
‘Power-sharing deal’
The reason why Shivakumar’s ready acquiescence to play second fiddle strikes a discordant note is because he has made no bones about his eagerness to occupy the top post. This almost since the day he, along with Siddaramaiah helmed the Congress’s victory with 136 seats, 23 more than the required 113 in a 224-member Assembly.
For the time being the High Command’s representative, Randeep Surjewala, appears to have managed to douse the voices of some legislators within the Congress calling for a change at the top.
These legislators are referring to an alleged arrangement between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar at the start of the current five-year term, as per which each was to hold the chief minister’s chair for 2.5 years each. If such an arrangement had indeed been agreed upon, Siddaramaiah has time until November this year to implement it.
Also read: Why Cong won't replace Siddaramaiah with DK Shivakumar as Karnataka CM
None except Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar, Congress president and senior Karnataka politician Mallikarjuna Kharge, besides members of the Gandhi family, can really say whether there was a power-sharing deal in the first place. This speculation, however, refuses to die down within party circles.
Shivakumar put up a strong fight
A rewind into the heady aftermath of the Congress’s 2023 victory could possibly give a clue into whether there existed an arrangement to share the top job between the two. At the time, Shivakumar had put up a strong fight to be considered for the post of chief minister. His demand was seen as justifiable because as party president, he was credited with organisational planning and strategy that helped the Congress to win big.
To add grist to Shivakumar’s claim was a television interview prior to the results in which he predicted the party would win 136 seats. And, to everyone’s surprise, the Congress secured exactly that. In the next few tension-filled days for the party, hectic lobbying and discussions were held in Bangalore and Delhi to resolve who should be the next chief minister.
Also read: ‘Yes, I will be’ CM for 5 years: Siddaramaiah puts speculation to rest
Eventually, Siddaramaiah was chosen with Shivakumar as his deputy. What is of interest here is the intensity of Shivakumar’s claim for the top job. Kharge was credited with breaking the impasse but the party grapevine claimed that this was possible due to an understanding on sharing the top job.
Mass leader vs master strategist
While Shivakumar was the master strategist, Siddaramaiah’s asset was his reputation as an experienced administrator, mass leader and his completion of a full term earlier between 2013 and 2018. The two shrewd politicians combined successfully in the run-up to the election, with an electrifying result for the party.
Of the 136 Congress legislators, party insiders acknowledge that a large number are the supporters of Siddaramaiah. This does not mean that Shivakumar is a pushover. He too has committed supporters within the state Congress. Shivakumar also has a reputation for standing firmly with the party when he reportedly came under pressure to join the BJP following investigations by central agencies into charges of corruption against him.
In July 2019, when a section of the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) legislators were in the process of defecting to the BJP, Shivakumar’s vigorous attempts to prevent it won him much appreciation within the party. Much of it was played out in the full glare of the media in Mumbai where the legislators were holed up in a hotel.
Also read: Karnataka Cong firmly behind Siddaramaiah, no leadership change: Shivakumar
Earlier, in 2017, on the eve of senior Congressman and Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patil’s re-election to the Rajya Sabha, Shivakumar piloted party legislators from Gujarat to a resort in Karnataka with a view to ensuring they stayed united. His efforts were widely applauded within the Congress.
High Command in tight spot
Though Siddaramaiah originally belonged to the Janata Dal, his entry into the Congress in 2006 at a time when the party was floundering for want of a capable leader worked to his advantage and he quickly rose to the top. Not just that, he led the Congress to victory in 2013 sealing his place at the top.
Given the unique characteristics of the two leaders, the Congress now appears to be in a tight spot over how to manage a transition, assuming that is on the agenda – notwithstanding Siddaramaiah’s assertion that he alone will continue to be the chief minister.
Also read: DK Shivakumar and I on good terms, says Karnataka CM amid power tussle
In 2006, when the BJP-JD(S) formed a coalition government, a similar arrangement ran into trouble at the time of implementation. Kumaraswamy was to have handed over the chair to his coalition partner BS Yediyurappa on the completion of his tenure. But when the day arrived, the JD(S) leader reluctantly exited from chief ministership. Within a few days, Kumaraswamy pulled out the JD(S) from the coalition, causing the government to fall. In the ensuing election of 2008, the resulting sympathy enabled the BJP to come to power with Yediyurappa as chief minister.
Hobson’s choice
For someone who asserted his claim forcefully at the risk of embarrassing the party leadership, it is difficult to believe that Shivakumar has tamely agreed to remain deputy chief minister for the full term.
In a television interview earlier this week, to a pointed question whether he did not have ambitions to become the chief minister, the usually loquacious Shivakumar chose to be guarded and merely smiled without saying anything.
It’s a classic Hobson’s choice for the Congress. If the party does not oblige Shivakumar there is no saying what the consequences will be. If he does replace Siddaramaiah, there could be consequences for that too – especially if the incumbent chief minister has been arm-twisted into stepping down.
Also read: Karnataka: As rivals gang up, is DK Shivakumar losing his grip?
In 2019, there were rumours within the Congress that some of the defections were the handiwork of Siddaramaiah’s supporters as they were never reconciled to working under his bitter rival HD Kumaraswamy’s chief ministership. There could be a repeat this time as well if the situation is not handled deftly.
Shivakumar holds considerable clout
The track record of the two in the current government is mixed, if that is any consideration. If Siddaramaiah had to face allegations of fraud in the MUDA scam, and take responsibility on the rebound for the Valmiki scam, Shivakumar has had to face the embarrassment of having presided over the RCB felicitation at the Chinnaswamy stadium when a stampede outside killed at least 11 cricket fans.
Two outcomes however, indicate that Shivakumar holds considerable clout. One, his opposition to the findings of the caste survey prevailed when the government decided to go in for a fresh exercise. Second, Shivakumar continues to remain state Congress chief despite calls within a section of the party to replace him.
Also read: Is Congress committing ‘harakiri’ in Karnataka?
Even if the two wily politicians do not personally react to either of the outcomes, there are supporters among the legislators who will do their bidding. In the current situation, MLA Iqbal Hussein from Ramanagara, a Shivakumar stronghold, was the one belling the cat with a public call for a change in chief ministership. Hussein has been issued a show cause notice but that could be for appearances.
