Myanmar | Why women are told to marry quickly, and men told to become monks

Not that the Tatmadaw (Myanmarese army) is facing an immediate ouster; it still has men and material to fight on. But what should worry the generals is the drooping morale of the troops who have not been paid salaries for months and asked to live off the land. An army wins if troop morale is high. It loses despite the best equipment if troops are panicking and unwilling to fight, especially if it means the massacre of their own countrymen.

Much as the government in neighbouring Bangladesh has turned into organised kleptocracy, the Myanmarese military junta is no longer anchored in a professional, disciplined army but runs like an extortion-driven mafia seeking to sustain itself by whipping up ethnic Bamar majoritarianism.

Youngsters prided joining the army in Myanmar during its long years in power but that has changed. Not even rats like staying on a sinking ship and in today's Myanmar, there are no Casablancas either.

So, when the junta, facing back-to-back military defeats on multiple fronts against highly motivated rebel fighters, announced large-scale military conscription, it evoked universal rejection and disdain.

Around 13 million young adults in Myanmar are now eligible for conscription, said military junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun, after the 65-year-old People’s Military Service Law was dusted up and activated for the first time this month.

From that day, all men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 in Myanmar are now required to serve in the armed forces for at least two years. The upper age limit rises to 45 years for men and to 35 years for women if they have specialist expertise, like medical or engineering. Specialists can also be conscripted for three years, and all conscripts can be forced to serve five years during a state of emergency, like the current one.

The announcement triggered anxiety and fear among parents and teenagers alike across Myanmar, including those in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay, where military recruitment has been historically below rural areas.

Even before this law was reactivated, junta troops would round up civilians in rural areas, for use as porters or human shields. Frequent reports of civilians being forced to walk ahead of military troops in suspected minefields and areas, where ambushes are likely, have added to the conscription panic.

Junta troops can now do nationally what they have been doing at the township level in some regions and states. Many social media regulars feared conscription would give the commanders an opportunity to extort money from wealthy families willing to pay bribes to keep their children from being conscripted.

Junta spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun has told a propaganda outlet that the law has been activated to fight People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) and ethnic armed organisations, and to defend national sovereignty and that the junta plans to recruit an initial batch of 5,000 in April.

But reports from many provinces indicated that conscription was already happening – young men and even women were being seized by junta troops and local administrators are compiling lists of young men and women from household registration records.

Immediately after the announcement, Facebook, whose users comprise almost 35 per cent of Myanmar's population, was flooded with posts and comments.

Some suggested that single women get married “quickly” to avoid conscription and that young men become monks as the law exempts married women and monks from conscription.

But young women expediting their marriage could end up losing their husbands to conscription. Joining the Buddhist clergy might not be an option either. The junta could limit this exemption to those who have spent a specified number of years in monkhood prior to the activation of the law.

Still, many youths were saying on social media that they will join the armed resistance forces or flee to liberated areas or other countries to avoid joining the junta forces brutalising Myanmar.

Some analysts say the regime’s conscription move could backfire and bolster resistance to the regime by encouraging more young people to voluntarily join PDFs and other armed groups fighting the junta.

The conscription announcement was followed by statements from numerous armed resistance groups saying they welcomed new, voluntary recruits.

The Yangon Command of the National Unity Government said thousands had applied to join its PDFs within hours of the conscription announcement.

Since the coup on February 1, 2021, the regime has tried to repress a defiant population. Its tactics have included arbitrary arrests, extra-judicial killings, widespread bombing of civilians – from land, air and sea – torture and arson attacks. The 1,027 offensive by three ethnic militias followed by the eruption of heavy fighting in Myanmar's other battle zones have led to the loss of huge territory by junta troops including 45 big and small towns.

Instead of curbing the resistance, the junta’s war crimes have inflamed it and the success of the ongoing rebel offensive has boosted rebel ranks with fresh recruits.

Now, coup leader Min Aung Hlaing faces the toughest challenge yet to his authority, and he is trying to forcibly enlist support, even as some generals are not so openly blaming him for the escalating civil war.

They point out that his military has suffered the largest number of casualties ever. Desertions are at historic highs. So, too, is the lack of public support.

Hlaing needs conscription to replenish troop levels, but at the same time he is further eroding public support. The military supremo is in a classic Catch-22 situation which can only take him down.