Tuesday’s dramatic developments cap a troubled 17-year existence of a republic since the overthrow of monarchy in 2008
Almost no one expected the seemingly spontaneous and fierce uprising that ousted Nepal’s fledgling republican government of KP Sharma Oli en masse along with the nation’s president Ram Chandra Poudel. But there it was; in a matter of hours, Nepal was left with a huge power vacuum.
The trigger for the popular upsurge was the ban on social media sites in a country where at least half the population — mostly youngsters, or the Gen Z — is glued to it. It was building up over the past few months with stories of how the children of the ruling elite — derisively labelled “Nepo Kids” — were splurging in exotic foreign locales and posting their adventures on social media.
Also read: Nepal protests in photos: Gen Z rebels against corruption and stifled freedom
An ugly gap
In a nation that is struggling with poverty, where one-third of its population works abroad and sends remittances providing valuable foreign exchange, the disparity was striking. Armed with evidence on social media, a growing mood against corruption was reaching a boiling point when a hit-and-run incident involving a member of the ruling elite pushed public anger over the edge.
In response to the growing protests, the Oli government attempted to block 26 popular social media sites, including Facebook and WhatsApp, expecting it to control the widespread anger and stem the outrage. It backfired badly, leading to a spontaneous protest that went completely out of hand after 19 demonstrators were killed in police firing.
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History repeats itself
In events reminiscent of what happened in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka earlier, hundreds of youngsters literally forced the ruling elite out of office. The parliament building was burnt down, leading to a power vacuum. With the army acting to control the situation, it is anyone’s guess which way the country will go forward.
Tuesday’s dramatic developments cap a troubled 17-year existence of a republic since the overthrow of monarchy in 2008. It’s been a tough journey for a nation that has encountered many a crisis — from its multi-fold attempts to draw up a republican Constitution, the constant tensions within the Nepali Congress, and the two main Communist parties.
Also read: What's driving Nepal's youth-led uprising and why India must tread cautiously?
Tussle between India and China
Unfortunately for Nepal, it is sandwiched between two giant neighbours, China and India. This has complicated politics in the tiny Himalayan nation, with both Beijing and New Delhi jostling to control the narrative over the years.
Questions will naturally arise whether either of the two neighbours were in any way behind the seemingly spontaneous uprising. Oli, the deposed prime minister, was considered closer to China, and was treated with disdain by the Modi government in New Delhi.
It took more than a year since Oli took over office for the Modi government to extend to him an invitation to visit India. The invitation came in the context of a recent rapprochement between India and China. Oli’s exit, on the face of it, appears favourable to India. But the power vacuum and the instability is something that might prove a challenge for New Delhi, if it aims to control how the situation develops.
The Xi Jinping dispensation too will not easily give in. Over the last decade, since the infamous economic sanctions imposed by the Modi government in 2016, Chinese interests have also firmly entrenched themselves in Nepal, so it’s going to be a tight tug of war between New Delhi and Beijing for control.
It will be an interesting battle since the two nations are now experiencing a newfound thaw in their cold, often hostile, relationship — following the US’s punitive tariff on India and the Modi government’s overtures to Beijing.
Neither will want Nepal to create a discord between them. That will better the chances of stability returning to Kathmandu sooner than later.
Also read: Who is K P Sharma Oli, rebel leader-turned politician?
Failure of successive governments
Since the nation turned a republic, power has been shared among the Nepali Congress led by Sher Bahadur Deuba and two factions of the Communist Party of Nepal — the Maoist Centre led by Prachanda and the Unified Marxist-Leninist led by Oli. None of the governments, mainly coalitions, has managed to stick on for a full term.
A section of the population had even started demanding a return to monarchy, frustrated with the failure of successive governments to bring about tangible development of the country. According to official data, unemployment hovers around 21 per cent, forcing many to look for jobs outside the country.
It is in this context that the brazen display of wealth by the children of the ruling elite, publicised by social media with the hashtag #nepokids, triggered anger leading to the dramatic ouster of the Oli government.
