Nepal uprising bears uncanny likeness to Hasina's ouster; is deep state involved?

Nepal Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli walking into a Nepali Army helicopter on Tuesday (September 9) afternoon after his resignation easily reminds one of former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing her country on August 5 last year after being ousted from power.

The similarity does not end with the way the two leaders fled after their ouster. In Hasina's case, it became clear soon enough that she was headed for India. Oli's destination is not clear yet. The helicopter he boarded can surely bring him to China or India, but as of now, his destination is not known. Much would depend on the Nepal army – if they decide to shelter him in a safe base within the country, they could. Hasina had to leave the country because Army Chief General Waker-u-Zaman was not willing to do that.

Also read: Nepal protests: Students on violence spree; media houses torched

Student-led uprisings

But while one needs to wait to find out who shelters Oli, one cannot miss out on the eerie similarities between his ouster and that of Hasina. Unlike Hasina, Oli has been in and out of power – he has been sometimes the victim and often the beneficiary of Nepal's uncertain politics, likened to the game of musical chairs.

But both in Bangladesh in July-August last year and in Nepal now, the movements that brought down Hasina and Oli were not spearheaded by known political rivals. While the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami may have lent support to the student agitation that turned into a mass uprising, the leadership of the movement was provided by the Students Against Discrimination platform – also known as Anti-discrimination Students Movement – headed by youth leaders not directly connected with any political party.

In Nepal again, some opposition parties began to support the agitation after the police firings led to many deaths. But the movement against the social media bans imposed by the Oli government earlier this month was led not by a political party, but by a not-so-well-known NGO, Hami Nepal. Formed in 2015 by a professional event manager, Sudan Gurung, Hami Nepal focused on disaster relief. It may have something to do with Gurung's loss of his child in the Nepal earthquake.

Fight against corruption

Like many Nepalese, Gurung is passionate about uplifting his country from corruption, which he holds responsible for Nepal's ailing economy and chronic unemployment problem that leads to huge out-migration every year. From disaster relief, Hami Nepal, over the years, moved into youth awareness programmes. Many in Nepal say Gurung’s programmes were well-funded by donations from Western multinationals. The awareness camps were well attended by youth activists who were disillusioned with Nepal's political parties and believed in Gurung's commitment to fight corruption through social mobilisation – using social media as a tool of mobilisation and harnessing unrest for change.

Also read: Nepal protests in photos: Gen Z rebels against corruption and stifled freedom

This is no different from the way Bangladesh's Anti-discrimination Students Movement went about its fight to end the quota system, which went against meritocracy and denied youth opportunity.

Meticulously-designed protests

It has now come to light how the coordinators of the platform were trained in awareness camps run by Western embassies and Bangladesh's interim government’s chief adviser, Muhammed Yunus, put all speculation to rest when he described the July-August 2024 agitation as one "meticulously designed". Yunus, a Nobel laureate, went further while addressing a programme at the Clinton Foundation in the US – he identified youth leader Mahfuz Alam as the "mastermind" of the July-August agitation that brought down Bangladesh's longest serving prime minister.

So, as we probe deeper into the Nepal agitation this week, one may not be able to resist the temptation to dub Hami Nepal chief Sudan Gurung as the 'mastermind' of the movement that brought down Oli. As they geared up for Monday's protests against the Oli government’s ban on social media platforms, Gurung's lieutenants, like the "coordinators" of Bangladesh’s Anti-discrimination Students Movement, sent out messages to mobilise school students in large numbers, insisting they turn out in school uniforms with school bags. The idea was not as innocuous as it might seem – schoolkids in uniforms might deter police from harsh action like opening fire if the agitation spun out of control, but if the law-enforcers went tough and some schoolchildren died, the emotional backlash would surely fuel the movement to a point of no return.

Watch: What's driving Nepal's youth-led uprising and why India must tread cautiously?

Point of no return

Both in Bangladesh and now in Nepal, the police acted heavy-handedly to defend the regime, and the deaths of a lot of young people intensified the agitation to the point of no return. In both countries, the agitation continued and actually intensified even as the main demands of the agitators were conceded by the government.

Both in Bangladesh and now in Nepal, the police acted heavy-handedly to defend the regime, and the deaths of a lot of young people intensified the agitation to the point of no return.

In Bangladesh, Hasina agreed to do away with the quotas in education and employment meant for descendants of freedom fighters. In Nepal, after a day of protests, Oli decided to lift the ban on the social media platforms. But that did not help. In both cases, the agitators came back to hold the government accountable for the large number of deaths in police firings and actually demanded the resignation of ministers. In Bangladesh, Hasina's flock held out until she decided to flee. In Nepal, Oli's Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak announced his resignation in a desperate effort to control the agitation, but it did not help.

Suspected role of deep state

The agitations in both Bangladesh and Nepal were led by relatively non-descript organisations, whose activity is often below the intelligence radar, as sleuths usually don't take them seriously. In both countries, the agitation platforms have effectively used social media and other new generation technology for the mobilisation of crowds. This is not to underestimate the high degree of public anger in the political milieu caused by corruption and repression, and surely organisations like Hami Nepal or the Bangladesh students platform can capitalise on it.

Also read: MEA urges Indians in Nepal to be cautious amid rising violence

But it would too much to expect they can provide the organisation and leadership on their own. Here comes the role of external agencies working for important powers interested in regime change. The role of the US deep state in Bangladesh's regime change odyssey is already well known, not the least because of Yunus' admission of “meticulous design”. We may have to wait a while to find out whether something similar happened in Nepal.

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