War against Hamas is not going Netanyahu’s way as he is waging it against 2 million Gazans too
Israel and Hamas have officially declared the war in Gaza to have ended. Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya said that the mediators, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye, have “confirmed that the war is completely over”.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had announced late on Thursday (October 9) night that the cabinet had ratified US President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan.
He wrote on social media portal X, “The government has just now approved the framework for the release of all of the hostages – the living and the deceased.”
A wasted effort
Trump said at a press conference that the hostages will be released by Monday or Tuesday. This is the first phase of the peace plan – cessation of the fighting.
Apprehensions remain whether the two sides will go through the rest of the plan. It includes Hamas bowing out of the political stage. The more important aspect is that of the reconstruction of Gaza, which has been razed to the ground by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). It raises questions about Netanyahu holding the view that a military response was the only way to eliminate Hamas. The peace plan removes Hamas from the political stage, showing that it was a better way of dealing with the militant organisation – diplomatic pressure.
Netanyahu’s two-year relentless war against Hamas appears to be a wasted effort, though he would be the last man to admit it.
Netanyahu’s defiant stance
Netanyahu relishes his hawkish image of an Israeli politician who gives no quarter to Palestinian terror groups like Hamas, and he has been living up to it in the face of roaring disapproval across the country, including the families of the 251 hostages taken two years back on October 7, 2023, and 1,200 Israeli civilians mowed down on the day.
Also read: Israel, Hamas agree to ‘first phase’ of Gaza truce, hostage-prisoner release
He perpetuated his defiant stand – or his growing frustration? – on September 10 when Israel attacked the Hamas negotiators in the Qatari capital Doha. Even the maverick American President, Trump, was taken aback and expressed his surprising disapproval. There are arguments that Israel is willing to irritate its closest ally, the US, because the hawks in Tel Aviv believe that Washington cannot ever back off from its no-holds-barred support for the Jewish state. The US is the security guarantor of Israel.
Netanyahu’s conditions that Hamas must disarm, and that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, led by the Fatah group, can be entrusted with the administration of Gaza, seem to have given way to less stringent conditions.
Surprisingly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which had been seen as closest to Israel because of Modi-Netanyahu bonhomie, was forced to condemn the Israeli attack in Doha. The India-Qatar relations have been very close, in part to be attributed to Modi’s own rapport with the Qatari political leadership.
Peace plan hitting deadend
Netanyahu was determined that he would not end the war until Hamas had been eliminated. And it seemed that in the face of Netanyahu’s fury, Hamas had little chance. But nearly two years later, Israel prepares to deal with Hamas, and Netanyahu’s conditions that Hamas must disarm, and that neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority, led by the Fatah group, can be entrusted with the administration of Gaza, seem to have given way to less stringent conditions.
Trump continues to make his ineffective statements that the ceasefire will happen and that negotiations are on. Whatever be Netanyahu’s desire to impose Carthaginian peace on Gaza, the place has been mowed down by relentless Israeli attacks and the death of more than 65,000 civilians, the plan is hitting a dead-end.
Also read: Israeli destruction of Gaza shatters myth of ‘modern, progressive’ world
Why Israel failed to defeat Hamas
While the backchannel negotiations will wind their torturous way to some unsatisfactory end, which will be temporary, the uncomfortable question to be asked is why it is that Israel, with its overwhelming firepower, is unable to defeat Hamas? Israel has attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran and the Houthis in Yemen for their ostensible support for Hamas. But the Israeli attacks on outside supporters have been plainly ineffective. It has not helped in the outcome inside Gaza, the dismantling of Hamas.
It would not be unrealistic to speculate that perhaps Gazans would only be too glad to turn their backs on Hamas, though they did vote for it in 2006. But there is no way of knowing the public sentiment in Gaza, even as homes, hospitals, and schools are pulverised by constant bombing, and starvation is taking its toll through erratic aid supplies, which Israel monitors closely. Israel, however, cites statistics to show the thousands of tonnes of food have passed through Israeli security.
There is chaos on the other side because it is not certain who distributes the aid, and whether Hamas is still in control of the administration of relief supplies. The only source of the death toll in Gaza comes from the Health Ministry. Israel does not dare to contradict. But the nothing-less-than-military-victory stand of the Israeli prime minister has not yielded the desired results.
Read/watch: 'Trump's Gaza plan is welcome as it signals end to Israeli assault'
Israel’s military might a façade
The invincibility of militaristic Israel has been much admired by right-wingers in India, and Israel’s uncompromising stance has been cited as the model to be adopted when India deals with Pakistan. It is a deeply flawed worldview, and India’s strategy experts do not share the sanguine assumptions of the philo-Israel group in India.
What has come to the fore in these two years of Netanyahu’s war in Gaza is that Israel is not as militarily powerful as it is perceived to be. This became clear when Israel launched its air strikes comprising 200 planes on Iran’s nuclear installations, which was a strategic error.
What has come to the fore in these two years of Netanyahu’s war in Gaza is that Israel is not as militarily powerful as it is perceived to be. This became clear when Israel launched its air strikes comprising 200 planes on Iran’s nuclear installations, which was a strategic error because it did not disable Iran’s nuclear potential. Trump saw Israel’s limitations, and he had to press into service in a calibrated fashion the American B-52 stealth bombers. Contrary to American claims, there is no clear evidence that Iran’s strategic nuclear installations have been shut down.
Also read: Trump’s Gaza peace plan: What Hamas has accepted and what it hasn’t
What Israeli strategy lacks
Israeli hawks and their supporters inside and outside Israel might argue that Israel is still exercising restraint in its use of its destructive force. This is an argument that the whole world will reject out of hand because the destruction that has been unleashed is too graphic to be pushed under the table, as it were, and it has been unrestrained and barbaric.
Israel cannot hope to stand alone and safe because it is armed to the teeth. There is no alternative to the two-state solution.
The Gaza evidence shows that Hamas is still left standing in the midst of ruins. Perhaps there is no credit due to Hamas because it follows a strategy of self-destruction. It may not inflict massive damage in Israel, and it does not care if the whole of Gaza is razed to the ground.
This is an unenviable situation for both Israel and Netanyahu. The war against Hamas is not going the Netanyahu way. It turns out that the Israeli prime minister is waging a war against two million Gazans, instead of singling out Hamas. What is lacking in the Israeli strategy is a conciliatory policy towards the Palestinians in Gaza and in the West Bank. If Hamas adopts the maximalist position of not recognising Israel, then the Netanyahu position of recognising Palestine existing next to Israel can only result in a mortal deadlock.
Also read: PM Modi welcomes Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, lauds Netanyahu's 'strong leadership'
No alternative to two-state solution
Netanyahu has proved more convincingly that military superiority cannot ensure victory when it is waged against a people. Israel is the most well-equipped and well-structured army in the region. But when it is pitted against mostly unarmed Palestinians, it is ineffective. Israel cannot hope to stand alone and safe because it is armed to the teeth. There is no alternative to the two-state solution.
There is the utopian possibility that Israel and Palestine could merge in a distant future into a Palestinian state, where Arab-speaking Palestinians and Hebrew-speaking Israelis can live together. Whatever the possibilities of co-existence in the undetermined future, the one thing that has no place is the possibility of asserting control through military power.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
