Protests have erupted across India after the Pahalgam terror attack, with many seeking for a tit-for-tat response against Pakistan. PTI Photo
Inflamed public mood aside, an adversary is brought to its knees not by hasty action, marked by poor planning. Look at 1971 to know how it should be done
India has responded to the Pahalgam terror strike by putting the 1960 Indus Water Treaty in abeyance and stopped visas to Pakistanis, besides scaling down diplomatic representation.
But can India renege unilaterally on an agreement brokered by the World Bank, risking future funding from the World Bank? Does it have in place the infrastructure (dams, barrages, etc.) to regulate the downstream flow in the Indus basin? What does it really mean for Pakistan to put the Indus Treaty in abeyance?
Can we go by public mood?
The public mood in India seems less interested in seeking answers to these questions and more keen on some immediate response to bleed Pakistan. The Home Ministry has admitted in the all-party meeting that Pahalgam was a 'lapse' because intelligence agencies failed to anticipate the jihadi targeting of a popular tourist site. The local tourism authority has also been blamed for not informing the security forces about opening the Baisaran meadows above Pahalgam to tourists. Is it a classic case of "communication gap" or is it mere passing the buck? Former deputy chief of Defence Intelligence Agency Major General (retd) Gaganjit Singh asserts the Pahalgam tragedy is " failure by design" because the government was more keen to promote the narrative that all is now well in the Kashmir valley after abrogation of Article 370.
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Singh wondered what happened to vulnerability mapping in Jammu and Kashmir ahead of a high-level foreign visits, such as US Vice-President JD Vance.
Commentators on TV panels, encouraged by TRP-seeking anchors, are both attacking the government for failing to respond adequately and are pushing for teaching Pakistan a lesson immediately.
'India should be like Israel'
Some suggest India should do what Israel did to Hamas in Gaza — flatten the place regardless of casualties. The ruling BJP is caught in its own tricky talk trap — those who openly suggest taking back the part of Kashmir in Pakistan's possession are now seen as incapable of defending its own citizens in the part of Kashmir firmly in Indian control. Congress leader Kapil Sibal has suggested a legal move to take Pakistan to the International Criminal Court after holding it responsible for the terror strike. It's possible to give it a try, but it won't be easy.
What is the solution at hand?
India has no easy solution at hand. We cannot do what Israel did in Gaza simply because Pakistan is a nuclear power, not a non-state actor like Hamas. We risk a full-scale war with Pakistan if we enter, let us say, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir ( POK) to hit terror launchpads and bases.
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Unless the entire terror eco-system is taken out, a hit here or there, like the Balakot strikes or the post-Uri commando raids, will serve no purpose except making a statement of intent. Pahalgam actually proves Balakot didn't really work — in the long run. It failed to disincentivise the use of terrorist assets by the Pakistan army.
'Balakot-type response needed'
Some may say it is worth repeating a Balakot-type air strike on some terrorist bases and launchpads in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Balakot was possible because it was a surprise that Pakistanis were not expecting at that point in time. Now they will expect it. Already, airbases across Pakistan are on high alert. A response that proves costly is not worth it.
Real enemy is Pak military?
Some retired Indian military officers have rightly suggested that the real enemy is not the terror groups but their sponsor, the Pakistani military. Unless they start feeling the pinch, they won't stop.
Just recall what hurts the Pakistan army the most. Casualties in its ranks that dampen troop morale. Where does that happen? In Balochistan, NWFP, and occasionally in Sindh.
The Pakistan army suffered huge humiliation over the recent hijacking of an entire train by the Baloch rebels, who mowed down occupants of three military compartments when commandos arrive to free the hijack.
Baloch rebels grow stronger
Over the years, the Baloch rebels have grown stronger and bolder. In March alone, apart from the train hijack and the suicide blast on a military convoy, two high-level assets of the Inter Services Intelligence ( ISI) were gunned down by unidentified gunmen on motorcycles. One in Balochistan, the other in Punjab. That frustration showed on the Pakistan army chief's furious rant against Hindus and over Kashmir and may have prompted the ISI to go for Pahalgam attack.
'Low-cost offensive weapon'
Thirty years ago, I argued in my book, Insurgent Crossfire, that the reciprocal backing of insurgencies has been a feature of post-colonial South Asia, serving as a low-cost offensive weapon.
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If Pakistan backed such an insurgency in Kashmir, India backed the Bengali rebellion in East Pakistan. If India backed the Tibetans in armed struggle and otherwise, the Chinese backed the insurgencies in North East India, as did the Pakistanis. If Bangladesh, under military dictators Zia and Ershad, backed the ULFA, then India backed the hill insurgency in the Chittagong Hill Tracts until 1996, when Sheikh Hasina came to power and the Shanti Bahini rebels signed a peace accord with her government.
As I argued in the book, leaders in South Asia have avoided costly conventional wars and kept their hostilities in the shadows.
Shadow warfare again in South Asia?
The second phase of 'Insurgent Crossfire' has now started to unfold in South Asia. If the Pakistanis continue to back terrorism in Kashmir, Punjab or North East (using Bangladesh's interim regime), India can well consider boosting the insurgencies in Balochistan, NWFP and Sindh. Without owning it up. No need for chest-thumping triumphalism. Secret operations deliver results when they are kept secrets. One can only brag if one is prepared for failure.
How should India hit back?
If Pakistan blames India for backing these insurgencies, why should Delhi shy away from doing what you are blamed for anyway? Taking a leaf out of the Pakistani playbook, India can act like a 'Gandhian', project itself as a victim of terror, but use the same weapon to bleed Pakistan in men and material. If you bleed them more than they can bleed you, they will ultimately chicken out. It's all about imposing a big enough cost on the mischief makers.
No time for hasty response
Such a course of action may not please inflamed Indian public opinion, specially the self-declared macho elements, but so be it. An adversary is brought to its knees not by hasty action marked by poor planning. Look at 1971 and the amount of planning that went into the process of turning the Bengali rebellion into a successful struggle for an independent Bangladesh to break up Pakistan.
Also Read: Is Kashmir really terror-free?
But Pakistan, specially its Army, did not learn the lesson and continued its mischief in Kashmir, Punjab and the North East. So now it should be reminded that a country once broken can be broken again.
India has less to fear
India has less to fear because of Kashmir or Punjab's economic integration into India. See the fury of the Kashmiris over the Pahalgam attack that threatens tourist inflows, which have hugely picked up since COVID, and one would know the cause behind the candlelit protests across Kashmir after the Pahalgam terror strike. Their bread and butter is at stake.
Kashmir economy was picking up
Kashmir is a significant beneficiary of India's growing tourism industry, with the annual footfall to the Union Territory rising sharply over the last three years to surpass 1.5 million. Per capita incomes and local revenues have gone up sharply and the impact on the Kashmir economy is visible. No wonder, the massive turnaround in public mood in Kashmir, with locals fearing that a terror attack will shatter the tourist economy.
Pak never learnt its basic lessons
Economic integration lays the foundation for emotional integration, usually not the other way around. The Pakistani state never understood that regions must have a stake in the national economy to feel part of the whole. So they lost East Pakistan and have huge problems in resource-rich Balochistan , NWFP and Sindh. The Mohajhir issue remains unresolved over their demand for " fifth nationality " status.
'BJP govt should not get carried away'
If the BJP government is serious about teaching Pakistan a lesson, it should avoid getting carried away by inflamed public opinion, expecting macho stuff. Pakistan may think the army is its strength but it is the country's real weakness. It has always pushed successive governments into pursuing ruthless military suppression rather than seeking political solutions through amicable dialogue. Unlike India, which resolved many insurgencies through dialogue. Former Mizo rebels running governments in Mizoram after twenty years of bloody insurgency proves a huge point. Reconciliation works in national integration, force does not.
Hit Pak where it hurts
India and its deep state should work on Pakistan's ethnic faultlines and hasten its descent into a completely failed state. It is a long-term project, operated from the shadows, bereft of pompous displays of power and lacking electoral mileage. But national policies must be framed and pursued with serious calculations, and never reduced to knee-jerk reactions for short-term gains at the ballot box.
Also Read: Lashkar-e-Taiba and its terror infra intact in Pakistan | Pahalgam
As proud descendants of the great Chanakya, who lived many centuries before Machiavelli, the Indian state needs to prioritise 'sham' to handle internal disaffection and 'bhed' to deal with our external enemies, 'Danda' is the last option on the table, not the first, but its selective and intelligent use will help if exercised in a way that avoids escalation into war.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
