When thousands of people travel down narrow valleys during weeks with highest probability of cloudbursts and debris flows, it's engineered for cascading failure
The Himalayas, long revered in India as the abode of the gods, stand at a perilous crossroads. The very act of pilgrimage, a centuries-old expression of devotion, is now colliding catastrophically with ecological fragility and the escalating impacts of climate change.
Driven by unbridled tourism, geologically reckless development, and intensifying weather extremes, this is no longer merely an environmental concern—it is a mounting humanitarian crisis that threatens both the sacred landscapes and the lives of those who journey to them.
The flood of humanity into sensitive mountain zones is unprecedented and accelerating. Official data reveal a staggering surge in the Char Dham Yatra in Uttarakhand alone, with pilgrim numbers exploding from 4.5 lakh in 2012 to over 50 lakh in 2023, a tenfold increase in a single decade.
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Cascading vulnerabilities
This is not an isolated trend. NITI Aayog identifies religious tourism as the dominant sector in the Indian Himalayan Region, projecting annual growth rates between 15 and 20 per cent, figures that vastly exceed any scientifically determined carrying capacity for these environments.
Accommodating this relentless human tide has triggered a frenzy of infrastructure development, executed with alarming disregard for geological reality.
The crisis in the high Himalayas today is not only from a warming, wetter atmosphere, but also from how we build roads, stack hotels and dharmashalas on steep slopes, reclaimed riverbeds, and active floodplains, and funnel ever-larger pilgrim crowds into valleys with narrow margins for error.
The critique of religious overtourism in the Himalayas is not about faith or access. It is about risk arithmetic.
Road-widening projects on unstable terrain create cascading vulnerabilities. Construction on steep slopes and riverbeds contravenes geological prudence.
The pattern is then familiar: extreme rainfall or snowmelt triggers slope failures; debris chokes rivers; sudden surges overrun settlements and camps. These are not isolated acts of nature. Humans are equally responsible.
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The force multiplier
Adding to this is climate change, a force multiplier. The Met Department says there has been a significant increase in high rainfall events in the western Himalayas in the past couple of decades. These deluges, characterised by intense, localised rainfall, now fall upon Himalayan watersheds degraded by deforestation, construction, and choked natural drainage. The consequences are devastating flash floods that overwhelm valleys crowded with people and infrastructure.
The consequences are tragically evident in recurring disasters: the 2013 Kedarnath catastrophe, the 2021 Rishiganga flash flood in Chamoli, the 2022 Amarnath cloudburst, and the near-constant landslides that sever pilgrim routes each season.
Each event is a lethal interplay of overwhelming human numbers, destabilizing development, and climate extremes.
Severe toll
The environmental toll is severe. Studies show that major pilgrimage sites like Gangotri generate over 50 tonnes of plastic waste daily, much of which clogs natural drainage systems.
Research indicates that 65 per cent of natural springs in the Kedarnath region show significant depletion, directly linked to overextraction to meet pilgrim demand and disrupted recharge zones.
The sacred rivers that pilgrims revere are becoming conduits for sewage and waste.
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The critique of religious overtourism in the Himalayas is, therefore, not about faith or access. It is about risk arithmetic. When tens of thousands of people are channelled every day into narrow valleys during the very weeks with the highest probability of cloudbursts and debris flows, and when evacuation depends on roads carved into actively failing slopes, the system is engineered for cascading failure.
Political cost
The carrying capacity of the Himalayas is clearly exceeded. To safeguard the sacred shrines and avoid recurring disasters, we must restrict pilgrim numbers. That is easier said than done.
Can restrictions on pilgrim numbers survive the current political economy of spectacle, corridor building, and always-open yatra calendars? The incentives run against restraint.
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The political dispensation’s ideological commitment to religious accessibility creates formidable obstacles to visitor limitations. The regime sees religious tourism as an expression of cultural identity and economic development, creating a powerful incentive to accommodate ever-increasing numbers through infrastructure expansion, rather than impose limits framed as restrictive.
Official data reveal a staggering surge in the Char Dham Yatra in Uttarakhand alone, with pilgrim numbers exploding from 4.5 lakh in 2012 to over 50 lakh in 2023, a tenfold increase in a single decade.
With India’s spiritual tourism projected to be worth around $59 billion by 2028, economic incentives align poorly with ecological prudence. The government’s development paradigm prioritises religious infrastructure expansion over environmental conservation, making visitor restrictions untenable despite scientific warnings. The political cost of restricting pilgrim numbers to sacred sites likely exceeds the perceived benefits of environmental protection, given the regime’s religious nationalism.
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The only possible outcome
Recurring disasters can then be the only outcome should the current trajectory persist. Pilgrim numbers are growing at 7–10 per cent annually, infrastructure is expanding without environmental safeguards, and climate impacts are intensifying.
The Char Dham circuit alone could see over 10 million annual pilgrims in the next 10 years. This density, combined with slopes destabilised by construction and road widening, valleys choked with waste and illegal structures, and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, creates conditions ripe for landslides and flash floods of unprecedented magnitude and lethality.
Infrastructure, perpetually rebuilt on unstable ground, will face accelerating cycles of damage and collapse. Water scarcity will reach crisis levels as springs vanish and rivers become irreversibly polluted. The spiritual essence of the pilgrimage will be suffocated by danger, congestion and environmental degradation.
Avoiding this needs a paradigm shift, grounded not in sentiment but in scientific evidence and courageous governance.
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Need for immediate intervention
Avoiding ecological collapse requires immediate intervention beyond political will. Scientific recommendations emphasise strict constraints on uncontrolled urbanization, overdevelopment of hydropower and resource overhunting. Implementation demands carrying capacity enforcement through scientifically-determined visitor limits based on ecological resilience rather than economic potential.
Infrastructure moratoriums must halt construction on geologically unstable terrain and within flood-prone zones. Early warning systems’ deployment would mitigate risk from glacial lake outbursts of floods and landslides. Since the Himalayan ecosystem is transnational, collaboration between countries is necessary for sharing climate data and disaster management.
The fragility of the Himalayas is not a flaw but a fundamental characteristic that demands respect. The scientific evidence is clear: manage the pilgrimages with wisdom, restraint, and a commitment to ecological integrity, or bear witness as the abode of the gods descends into an era of preventable tragedy and irreversible loss.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal.)
