Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia, in a worst-case scenario, could even end whatever little possibility there was of a ceasefire.
Just when it appeared that Russia had, for all practical purposes, won the war with Ukraine, comes the electrifying drone attack by Kyiv that has the potential to upend Vladimir Putin’s dreams of imposing his will on Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The stunning attack, using FPV (first-person-view) drones, wrecked at least 40 Russian fighter aircraft, including the advanced Tu-95 and Tu-22 strategic bombers. The drones damaged five top-end military airfields deep inside the country, including in Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ryazan, and Amur regions. The attack, code-named Operation Spiderweb, was 18 months in the making. It was a textbook execution that showed Ukraine was not a pushover and is a force to reckon with.
Also read: Op Spider’s Web: How Ukraine pulled off massive drone attacks on Russian airbases
Strikes may complicate ceasefire talks
For Ukraine, the latest and biggest strike on Russia is crucial as the first round of negotiation in Turkey’s Istanbul and discourse over an eventual peace agreement appeared to be progressing but under Putin’s diktat. Sunday’s drone attack changes the context somewhat as it shows that Ukraine has the ability to stand its ground under pressure. And mount attacks, using the latest technology with discretion.
The immediate possibility is that the strikes can complicate negotiations for the ceasefire. Putin is not the type of individual who will let Ukraine’s attack pass without retribution. The drone attack is almost a personal humiliation for the egotistical Russian president who triggered the war by invading Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Russia to remain uncompromising
If the negotiations in Istanbul don’t make much headway, it would be a blow to United States President Donald Trump and his efforts to emerge as a peacemaker. Ukraine’s daring drone attack on Russia, in a worst-case scenario, could even end whatever little possibility there was of an agreement.
Also read: Kyiv ‘staged terror attack’: Russia confirms Ukrainian drone strikes on 5 air bases
Alternatively, walking out of the ceasefire talks would send the wrong message that would confirm Ukraine hit Putin where it hurts. Instead, Russia is likely to remain uncompromising on its demands in an attempt to regain the initiative.
So far, Russia’s position in the negotiations has not been made public. But Putin in the past has refused to consider conceding any Ukrainian territory it has occupied so far.
In fact, the sticking point in reaching an agreement between Ukraine and Russia has been the return of Ukrainian territory in the east in the Donbas region all the way down to Crimea. Putin has refused to discuss this demand as he says the occupied region needs to be a buffer between Russia and countries like Ukraine, which are close to the US-led western alliance.
Ukraine’s message to US
Ukraine essentially wants a total and unconditional ceasefire before talking about a long-term peace agreement.
Operation Spiderweb is the most positive confirmation of Ukraine’s ability to continue the fight. This has been made possible by European Nato allies’ complete backing for Zelenskyy despite Trump’s virtual desertion of Ukraine.
Also read: White House public spat pushes Ukraine peace further away
Ukraine’s dramatic strike on Russia can also be seen as an emphatic response to Trump, who, along with his deputy JD Vance, belittled Zelenskyy publicly in front of the media during his visit to Washington in March. Trump, during that unprecedented meeting, had openly said “Ukraine had no cards to play with”, meaning Zelenskyy had no choice but to concede to any condition for peace.
Trump, who had claimed during his election campaign that he would end the Ukraine-Russia war in one day, has expressed frustration over the prevarication on both sides to come to an agreement. Though the US president is still in the picture, his earlier enthusiasm appears to have evaporated. Now, with Zelenskyy showing what Ukraine is capable of, with or without US support, Trump has a challenge on his hands. It will be interesting to see how the Trump administration reacts to Ukraine’s daring show that none expected was coming.
Putin’s wrath
Ukraine’s strikes also indicate that the US’s European NATO allies, who were miffed over being sidelined by Trump, are quietly playing their role in backing Zelenskyy.
However, realistically speaking, Ukraine may have pulled off a rabbit out of its hat in targeting Russia’s airfields deep inside their territory, but it will now have to contend with Putin’s anger.
Also read: Ukraine destroys more than 40 Russian military aircraft in massive drone attack
Over the last three years, since Russia launched its “special operation” against Ukraine, it has gradually but surely advanced into the eastern belt, which it now occupies. Ukraine, which was heavily backed by the US and its allies in Europe, has suffered extensive damage to its cities, critical infrastructure, and reportedly lost around 1,00,000 troops. Zelenskyy has confirmed the deaths of nearly 50,000 troops. An estimated three million Ukrainians have been internally displaced, while six million have fled the country.
Putin’s troops have also suffered losses, though apparently not on the scale of Ukraine as far as damage to cities and infrastructure are concerned. In 2024, Russia suffered heavily, losing around 45,000 troops in battle.
Also read: Putin’s assassination plot by Ukraine foiled, says Russian military
The latest strikes by Ukraine are, by far, the biggest blow that Russia has suffered in terms of prestige and actual losses to its state-of-the-art military equipment, and that makes it a game-changer. Whether it will help in bringing a resolution to the war or will the conflagration get further inflamed is the key question.
