India’s demographic dividend risks becoming a threat due to poor education quality, lack of skills for modern jobs, and increasing student political activism
A recent development, generally seen positively as a harbinger of social and political change in South Asia, has been the student uprisings in Bangladesh and Nepal where governments were unseated due to perceived corrupt practices at various levels.
In Bangladesh, there had been economic growth during the previous regime, and only a short time back, the country was cited as a model for South Asia. In Nepal, it was, ironically, a Communist-led regime, itself the product of an upheaval, that was unseated.
Since then, there has been some student-led unrest in India’s Ladakh region, demanding separate statehood for the region.
There have previously been student movements in India and the most famous one may have been the one led by Jayaprakash Narayan in the 1970s against Indira Gandhi. But established politicians led that movement while the recent ones seem spontaneous; no established political party has taken responsibility though some right-wing political groups may have been involved in Bangladesh.
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The problem with protests against corruption
Unlike peasants or the industrial working class, which have led revolutionary political movements, there is a certain nebulousness to students as a group which leaves us uncertain about the social composition of the groups, which would be a key indicator of the agenda it might have when it becomes a ‘revolutionary’ force. But what we can be certain of is that students are those with no clear social identity and hence no definite agenda.
In Bangladesh and Nepal, what students were protesting was corruption and nepotism which are characteristics of societies rather than of regimes. In India, corruption was rampant even at the height of Mughal rule under Akbar. As an obvious driving cause after independence, elections involve enormous expenditure which means that corrupt practices can only proliferate and prevail.
For instance, one cannot seriously believe that any elected government in India can bring down the levels of corruption, although alternate forms like Electoral Bonds may be devised. When student groups cite the removal of corruption as their agenda, therefore, it usually means that they have no viable plan or end in sight but are only invoking the most conspicuous of social ills. But the result of the unrest in both Bangladesh and Nepal was economic ruin.
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The pros and cons of a rapidly rising labour force
Having a youthful population has been often seen by economists as a good thing for a country, and that is often held by writers as an advantage that India has over China, where the population has been aging. India is and, for some time, will remain one of the youngest countries in the world. A third of India’s population is estimated to be below 15 years of age and close to 20 per cent of the 15–24 age bracket.
The anticipated demographic process would create a growing labour force, expected to deliver spin-offs in terms of growth and prosperity through a number of routes. The most obvious positive effect is that a higher growth trajectory is not likely to run into bottlenecks set by labour inadequacy.
India is a large country and one cannot see the political events in Bangladesh and Nepal being easily replicated here. Still, a large, youthful, unemployed populace without the skills that might make them employable represents a very real threat. This is exacerbated by the acute politicization of the public space and education itself becoming politicized under various guises
But this assumes that the growing workforce of youth can be trained to acquire the skills needed by the newer and technologically more dynamic industries. This notion of a “demographic dividend” overturns the older popular perception that a large population is a problem rather than a benefit from an economic point of view.
A nation’s population can be divided into those in the labour force (in the 15–64 age group) and those outside it. Since those outside the workforce would be consuming part of what is produced by currently employed workers, the ratio of those outside the workforce to those in it (the “dependency ratio”) would be among the factors influencing the surplus available for investment after current consumption. Hence, everything else remaining the same, the higher the proportion of workers to non-workers, the larger the surplus.
However, in reality, even though growth has occurred, it has not been able to absorb the rapidly rising labour force generated by the demographic dividend. This naturally brings to the forefront not only issues related to the increasing demand for labour but also the nature of the labour force and its employability (as assumed while positing the “demographic dividend”). In this context, the quantity, quality, and relevance of education are all crucial and education would include technical training.
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Job security and employability
A study conducted two decades ago in Karnataka among those who had passed matriculation came up with some pertinent conclusions about employment issues. As regards industrial training, it was found that after completing the course, trainees came back into mainstream education (BCom/BSc/BA).
Secondly, the demand is highest for desk jobs and many of those successfully practising technical skills, like mason, plumber and electrician, wanted their children to get into white-collar jobs and were supporting them while seeking it. The highest demand among youth was for “job security”.
Coming to the usefulness of subjects, 47 per cent of SSLC (secondary school), 32 per cent of pre-university, and 28 per cent of ITI (industrial training institute) students said no subject was useful. In the “self-employed” category, most of them joined the family business as an extra hand and this was really disguised unemployment. It was also significant that those who had failed in SSLC were more employable than those who had passed it.
None of these conclusions are surprising although they would need to be interpreted. There is a greater demand for white-collar work because of the Brahminical aversion to physical labour. “Job security” sounds innocuous but it implies government jobs where earning is seen to extend far beyond a salary. The fact that failed students are more employable suggests that education is a stamp that confers status but may prevent some from accepting the only jobs available to them.
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Scant attention to education
If one closely examines the education scene today, with autonomous universities being created and given more freedom, the situation can look alarming. Impressive syllabi are being set without the faculty available with the capability to teach them. Student activities like seminars and discussions are being promoted, which are like jamborees since those participating in them are chosen almost randomly. The devised activity must be purposeful and serve a designated purpose and not merely tick off an empty square on a questionnaire.
A film actor, for instance, may not be the right person to speculate thoughtfully on the sociopolitical aspects of film culture. If students learn very little about what they are supposedly being taught, the next “remedying” step devised by the new universities is to set examination questions without any reference to the syllabi and testing only “common sense”.
If there is a profound failure in policy today, it is the scant attention being paid to education, with private institutions engaging in profiteering. During the visit of the British Prime Minister, there was talk of Britain setting up universities in India, but that would probably not yield results since the same faculty available in the various colleges and universities would then only be moved around.
One way of ascertaining if a faculty member has qualifications to teach would be to examine his or her publications; and even in the top universities, very few of those chosen as qualified faculty have faced peer reviews. It is an acknowledged fact that “international schools” employ young British nationals to convey “quality” to affluent parents seeking a proper education for their children.
In the same way, expensive private universities are signalling “excellence” by employing PhDs from the West, and these universities are taken to represent the best in Indian education. With the perceived deterioration of higher education in India, this could seem like a foreign education obtained locally!
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Thrust on political opinion in education policy
The thrust in education policy today seems increasingly to create political opinion among the student populace, and student activism is on the rise. Activism among the teaching faculty, regardless of how it is glamorised in certain circles, is not something that should be welcomed since activism among the young is essentially the spread of unreasoned opinion.
One gets into education partly to learn about the world, what direction to follow in one’s thinking, and if students imbibe opinions through the good offices of charismatic teachers looking for constituencies, it could accumulate into serious societal troubles for India in the medium to long run.
India is a large country and one cannot see the political events in Bangladesh and Nepal being easily replicated here. Still, a large, youthful, unemployed populace without the skills that might make them employable represents a very real threat. This is exacerbated by the acute politicization of the public space and education itself becoming politicized under various guises.
To make matters worse, there is enormous wealth creation accompanied by a sharpening gap between the economic desires of the public and the opportunities available to fulfil them. Given the amount of unaccounted wealth in circulation funding for illicit political mobilization is a palpable danger without our ever knowing where the unrest comes from. At the very least, there is a real threat of anarchy in pockets across India that may not be easily quelled.
It is in this context that the issue of creating a thinking and employable young public through a thrust on the right kind of education should be seen as one needing immediate and urgent attention.
(The Federal seeks to present views and opinions from all sides of the spectrum. The information, ideas or opinions in the articles are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Federal)
